** WTIN20 DEMS 200620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 21ST NOVEMBER,2005 NEAR LAT. 9.0 DEG. N AND LONG. 82.0 DEG. E ABOUT 350 KM SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FUTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) MSG OVER ** WTIN20 DEMS 211831 COR *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 21-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 1700 UTC (.) MORNING'S DEPRESSION OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTHWESTWARDS AND LAY CENTRED AT 1200 UTC OF 21ST NOVEMBER,2005 NEAR LAT. 9.0 DEG. N AND LONG. 82.0 DEG. E ABOUT 350 KM SOUTHEAST OF NAGAPATTINAM. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FUTHER AND MOVE IN A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION. INTENSE TO VERY INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM. INTENSE CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER ADJOINING WESTCENTRAL BAY AND SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL (.) MSG OVER ** WTAU10 ADRM 211834 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051121 1800 103S 0917E 215 020 0960 1010 0450 39 020 0250 0250 0250 0300 D = ** WTAU05 APRF 211836 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:10S092E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1828UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude ten decimal three south [10.3S] Longitude ninety one decimal seven east [91.7] Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots. Maximum winds 75 knots. Central pressure 960 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in western quadrants. FORECAST Within 25 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 80 knots decreasing below 64 knots by 22/1800UTC. Very high seas and heavy swell. Within 40 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and heavy swell. Within 100 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in western quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 22 November: 11.4 south 91.3 east 965 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 22 November: 12.7 south 90.6 east 975 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 22 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 211836 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:10S092E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1828UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Severe Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 20 nautical miles of Latitude ten decimal three south [10.3S] Longitude ninety one decimal seven east [91.7] Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots. Maximum winds 75 knots. Central pressure 960 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in western quadrants. FORECAST Within 25 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 80 knots decreasing below 64 knots by 22/1800UTC. Very high seas and heavy swell. Within 40 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and heavy swell. Within 100 nautical miles of the centre extending to 120 nautical miles in western quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 0600UTC 22 November: 11.4 south 91.3 east 965 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 22 November: 12.7 south 90.6 east 975 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 22 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 212100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 211800Z --- NEAR 10.3S 91.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 220 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 005 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.3S 91.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 11.5S 90.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 13.0S 90.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 14.3S 90.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 200 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 15.3S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 212100Z POSITION NEAR 10.6S 91.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE ANCH- ORED TO THE EAST. TC 03S WILL WEAKEN AFTER TAU 36 AS IT ENCOUNTERS STRONGER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 211800Z IS 34 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 220900Z AND 222100Z.//