** WTAU05 APRF 210050 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:09S093E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0033UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eight decimal nine south [8.9S] Longitude ninety three decimal zero east [93.0] Recent movement south southwest at 3 knots. Maximum winds 70 knots. Central pressure 965 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 70 knots weakening to below 60 knots by 22/0000UTC. Very high seas and heavy swell. Within 55 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 90 nautical miles of the centre extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1200UTC 21 November: 10.4 south 92.3 east 965 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre. At 0000UTC 22 November: 11.7 south 91.7 east 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 21 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 210050 *** IDW23100 40:3:2:24:09S093E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0033UTC 21 NOVEMBER 2005 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eight decimal nine south [8.9S] Longitude ninety three decimal zero east [93.0] Recent movement south southwest at 3 knots. Maximum winds 70 knots. Central pressure 965 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 90 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Within 30 nautical miles of the centre, winds to 70 knots weakening to below 60 knots by 22/0000UTC. Very high seas and heavy swell. Within 55 nautical miles winds above 48 knots with very rough to high seas and moderate to heavy swell. Within 90 nautical miles of the centre extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate to heavy swell. At 1200UTC 21 November: 10.4 south 92.3 east 965 hPa. Winds to 70 knots near centre. At 0000UTC 22 November: 11.7 south 91.7 east 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 21 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU10 ADRM 210052 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051121 0000 089S 0930E 215 015 0965 1010 0500 36 040 0200 0400 0400 0200 D = ** WTNT22 KNHC 210232 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0300Z MON NOV 21 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 85.5W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT...DISSIPATING. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 85.5W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 85.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 17.4N 85.2W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 17.5N 84.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 17.5N 82.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 85.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 210232 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 ...GAMMA DISSIPATING TO THE NORTH OF HONDURAS... AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES... 155 KM...NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS. THE DEPRESSION IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH... 4 KM/HR...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AND EAST WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GAMMA IS DISSIPATING INTO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...17.2 N... 85.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 210233 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM EST WED NOV 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.5N 84.0W 42 X X X 42 MUSN 216N 826W X 4 X X 4 17.5N 82.0W 5 25 X X 30 MHNJ 165N 859W 99 X X X 99 MWCG 193N 814W 1 22 X X 23 MNPC 141N 834W 1 4 X X 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE C FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE D FROM 7PM TUE TO 7PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 210235 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 GAMMA CONTINUES TO HAVE A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION...BUT ALSO CONTINUES TO LACK ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THUS THE SYSTEM NO LONGER QUALIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND ADVISORIES ARE BEING DISCONTINUED AT THIS TIME. STRONG SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVER THE CIRCULATION AND DISCOURAGE THE REDEVELOPMENT OF PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. ADDITIONALLY...IN 24 HOURS OR SO...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO SWEEP INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS EXPECTED THAT THE REMNANT LOW OF GAMMA WILL EITHER BECOME ABSORBED BY THIS FRONT OR DISSIPATE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GAMMA HAS BEEN DRIFTING VERY SLOWLY NORTHWARD. THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE IS DISSIPATING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT ENTERS THE PICTURE. AN INCREASING WESTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW-LEVEL STEERING IS FORECAST...WHICH SHOULD TURN GAMMA'S REMNANTS NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GAMMA UNLESS REGENERATION...WHICH APPEARS UNLIKELY...OCCURS. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW OF GAMMA CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC...AND IN OFFSHORE WATERS FORECASTS UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAOFFNT3 AND UNDER WMO HEADER FZNT23 KNHC. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/0300Z 17.2N 85.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 21/1200Z 17.4N 85.2W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 22/0000Z 17.5N 84.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 22/1200Z 17.5N 82.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 23/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 210259 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 21 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM EST DOMINGO 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA DISIPANDOSE AL NORTE DE HONDURAS... A LAS 10 PM EST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.5 OESTE O COMO A 95 MILLAS... 155 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE LIMON HONDURAS. LA DEPRESION SE HA ESTADO DESPLAZANDO HACIA EL NORTE A 2 MPH...Y UN GIRO HACIA EL NORESTE Y ESTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION SE ESPERA DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 30 MPH... 45 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. GAMMA SE ESTA DISIPANDO EN UN AREA DE BAJA PRESION. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1008 MILIBARAS...29.77 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM EST...17.2 NORTE... 85.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 30 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1008 MILIBARAS. ESTA ES LA ULTIMA ADVERTENCIA PUBLICA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A MENOS QUE OCURRA UNA REGENERACION. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 210515 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 21.11.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.5N 85.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 21.11.2005 17.5N 85.3W WEAK 12UTC 21.11.2005 17.6N 84.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 210515