** WTCA42 TJSJ 200603 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 17A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM EST DOMINGO 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE DE HONDURAS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA BAY ISLANDS HONDURAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 QM EST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.0 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS... 110 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE LIMON HONDURAS Y COMO A 225 MILLAS... 360 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CIUDAD BELIZE. GAMMA SE ESTA DESPLAZANDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 36 MPH...6 KM/HR. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...PERO EL MOVIMIENTO PODRIA SER ALGO ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA POCO CAMBIO EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. ALGUNAS RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDEN TODAVIA ESTAR OCURRIENDO SOBRE AREAS ALTAS DEL NORESTE DE HONDURAS AL SUR DEL CENTRO DE GAMMA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA MITAD SUR DE CUBA Y SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. BANDAS DE LLUVIA AL SUR DE GAMMA PUEDEN CAUSAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM EST...16.7 NORTE... 85.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 3 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 200600 *** WARNING 200600. WARNING VALID 210600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1000 HPA AT 17.3N 123.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 17.8N 122.2E WITH 60 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 18.0N 121.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1006 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 200643 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 20-11-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEPRESSION NEAR LATITUDE 8.0 DEGREE NORTH LONGITUDE 84.5 DEGREE EAST AND OVER SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA(.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 200600UTC 17.3N 123.0E FAIR MOVE NNW 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 210600UTC 18.0N 121.4E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTAU05 APRF 200659 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:08S09E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0658UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eight decimal zero south [8.0S] Longitude ninety three decimal three east [93.3] Recent movement south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds 55 knots. Central pressure 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots, reaching 50 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre. Wind increasing to 50/65 knot near centre by 1200UTC 20 November and then 50/75 knots by 0600UTC 21 November. Very high seas and heavy swell increasing. At 1800UTC 20 November: 9.1 south 92.6 east 970 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 21 November: 10.3 south 91.7 east 960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 200659 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:08S09E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0658UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eight decimal zero south [8.0S] Longitude ninety three decimal three east [93.3] Recent movement south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds 55 knots. Central pressure 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots, reaching 50 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre. Wind increasing to 50/65 knot near centre by 1200UTC 20 November and then 50/75 knots by 0600UTC 21 November. Very high seas and heavy swell increasing. At 1800UTC 20 November: 9.1 south 92.6 east 970 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 21 November: 10.3 south 91.7 east 960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS ACCELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 12 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CDO BECAME INDISTINCT TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 12 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTAU10 ADRM 200706 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051120 0600 080S 0933E 200 031 0980 1010 0400 28 040 0150 0450 0350 0150 D = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 200600 UTC 00HR 17.3N 123.2E 998HPA 16M/S P12HR NNE 10KM/H P+24HR 19.5N 123.7E 1004HPA 12M/S= ** WTAU05 APRF 200728 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:08S094E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0727UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 REISSUE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eight decimal zero south [8.0S] Longitude ninety three decimal three east [93.3] Recent movement south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds 55 knots. Central pressure 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots, reaching 50 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre. Wind increasing to 50/65 knot near centre by 1200UTC 20 November and then 50/75 knots by 0600UTC 21 November. Very high seas and heavy swell increasing. At 1800UTC 20 November: 9.1 south 92.6 east 970 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 21 November: 10.3 south 91.7 east 960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 200728 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:08S094E999:11:00 PANPAN HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0727UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 REISSUE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude eight decimal zero south [8.0S] Longitude ninety three decimal three east [93.3] Recent movement south southwest at 6 knots. Maximum winds 55 knots. Central pressure 980 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots, reaching 50 knots within 30 nautical miles of the centre. Wind increasing to 50/65 knot near centre by 1200UTC 20 November and then 50/75 knots by 0600UTC 21 November. Very high seas and heavy swell increasing. At 1800UTC 20 November: 9.1 south 92.6 east 970 hPa. Winds to 65 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 21 November: 10.3 south 91.7 east 960 hPa. Winds to 75 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTKO20 RKSL 200600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN ANALYSIS POSITION 200600UTC 17.3N 123.0E MOVEMENT NNW 7KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 210600UTC 18.0N 122.4E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1004HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 200745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 200600 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (122.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 90 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (121.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT72 KNHC 200818 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM EST WED NOV 23 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.5N 85.0W 99 X X X 99 MUHA 230N 824W X X 3 5 8 17.9N 84.0W 46 X X X 46 MUAN 219N 850W X 5 5 2 12 18.0N 82.2W 3 9 8 2 22 MMCZ 205N 869W 3 7 2 1 13 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 2 2 MZBZ 175N 883W 4 3 1 1 9 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 3 3 MGPB 157N 886W 1 1 1 1 4 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 4 4 MHNJ 165N 859W 99 X X X 99 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 10 10 MNPC 141N 834W 4 5 3 2 14 MKJS 185N 779W X X 1 10 11 MNBL 120N 839W X 1 1 3 5 MWCG 193N 814W X 3 11 4 18 SKSP 126N 817W X X 3 4 7 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 5 5 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 8 8 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 2 2 MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 7 9 MARATHON FL X X X 3 3 MUSN 216N 826W X 2 7 4 13 KEY WEST FL X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM MON TO 1PM MON C FROM 1PM MON TO 1AM TUE D FROM 1AM TUE TO 1AM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 200818 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 ...DISORGANIZED GAMMA WEAKENING AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 220 MILES... 350 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY. GAMMA IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 2 MPH ... 4 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND GAMMA COULD WEAKEN INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM ...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER. HOWEVER... SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GAMMA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUBA AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 2 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 200818 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0900Z SUN NOV 20 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. THIS WARNING MAY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 85.0W AT 20/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 85.0W AT 20/0900Z AT 20/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 85.0W FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.1N 85.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 17.5N 85.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 17.9N 84.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 18.0N 82.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 17.5N 78.0W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.7N 85.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 8.3S 93.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S 93.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 9.3S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 10.4S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.6S 91.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.9S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 93.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S CONTINUES TO STEADILY DEVELOP IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.// ** WTCA42 TJSJ 200830 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 18 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM EST DOMINGO 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA DESORGANIZADA Y DEBILITANDOSE A MEDIDA QUE PERMANECE FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE DE HONDURAS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA BAY ISLANDS HONDURAS. ESTE AVISO PODRIA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM EST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.0 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS... 120 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE LIMON HONDURAS Y COMO A 220 MILLAS... 350 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CIUDAD BELIZE. GAMMA SE ESTA DESPLAZANDO HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH...4 KM/HR. SE ESPERA QUE CONTINUE CON UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE O NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO UN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO PODRIA SER POSIBLE DEBIDO A QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANECEN DEBILES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y GAMMA PODRIA DEBILITARSE A UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORESTE DEL CENTRO. ALGUNAS RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL AUN PODRIAN OCURRIR SOBRE AREAS ALTAS DEL NORESTE DE HONDURAS AL SUR DEL CENTRO DE GAMMA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA RECIENTEMENTE INFORMADA POR UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA FUE DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA MITAD SUR DE CUBA Y SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. BANDAS DE LLUVIA AL SUR DE GAMMA PUEDEN CAUSAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM EST...16.7 NORTE... 85.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...HACIA EL NORTE A CERCA DE 2 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM EST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 200900 RRB *** 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.6S 91.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.9S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 93.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHTWARD ** WTXS31 PGTW 200900 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 8.3S 93.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S 93.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 9.3S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 10.4S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTXS31 PGTW 200900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200600Z --- NEAR 8.3S 93.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 8.3S 93.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 9.3S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 10.4S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.6S 91.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 12.9S 91.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 200900Z POSITION NEAR 8.6S 93.4E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S CONTINUES TO STEADILY DEVELOP IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 200900 RRC *** AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S CONTINUES TO STEADILY DEVELOP IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW TO MODERATE VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200600Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 202100Z AND 210900Z.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 200840 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 EARLIER DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS NEAR AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. THE HIGHEST 1500 FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS INDICATED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 37 KT IN A FEW SPOTS JUST NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER... WHICH DOES NOT SUPPORT TROPICAL STORM STATUS. AT BEST...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS SUPPORT BORDERLINE TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. SINCE WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS IS LOCATED BETWEEN THE FLIGHT LEGS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT... GAMMA IS BEING KEPT A TROPICAL STORM BUT THE WINDS HAVE BEEN LOWERED TO 35 KT... WHICH MAY BE GENEROUS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 360/02...BASED ON A 12-HOUR MOTION. THE LAST SEVERAL RECON POSITONS INDICATE GAMMA HAS ONLY DRIFTED SLOWLY NORTHWARD. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z ALONG WITH DROPSONDE DATA FROM THE NOAA G-IV JET AIRCRAFT SHOW A WEAKNESS OVER WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL STILL EXISTS WITHIN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH... BUT THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE HAS REMAINED INTACT. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY UPPER-LEVEL WIND FLOW HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN A SHEARING PATTERN ACROSS GAMMA. THE RESULT IS THAT THE CYCLONE NOW APPEARS TO BE VERTICALLY LESS DEEP THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY... AND THE SYSTEM MAY NOT EVEN BE AROUND AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 48 HOURS ACCORDING TO THE SHIPS MODEL. THE VARIOUS NHC TRACK MODELS MOVE A WEAKENING GAMMA EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH SEVERAL OF THE MODELS FORECASTING DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION BY 96 HOURS AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE OFFICIAL TRACK WAS SHIFTED WELL SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND AGREES WITH THE CONSENSUS OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WITH EITHER DISSIPATION OR ABSORPTION OCCURRING BY 72-96 HOURS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. ADDITONAL STRENGTHENING APPEARS UNLIKELY DUE TO INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AND MID-LEVEL DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE SOUTH. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0900Z 16.7N 85.0W 35 KT 12HR VT 20/1800Z 17.1N 85.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 21/0600Z 17.5N 85.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 21/1800Z 17.9N 84.0W 30 KT 48HR VT 22/0600Z 18.0N 82.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 23/0600Z 17.5N 78.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 200600 *** TTT WARNING 06 AT 0600 20 NOVEMBER TROPICAL DEPRESSION (BOLAVEN) (0523) DOWNGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR AND SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 210600 TWO ZERO POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT NINE EAST AT 220600 TWO TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE EAST AT 230600 TWO FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TD BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 200900 UTC 00HR 18.0N 123.2E 998HPA 16M/S P12HR N 15KM/H P+24HR 20.1N 124.0E 1004HPA 12M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 200900UTC 17.8N 122.7E POOR MOVE NNW 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 210900UTC 18.1N 121.2E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY TYPHOON MODEL ON TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) AT 06 UTC IS VALID TILL 48 HOURS.= ** WTPH RPLL 200600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 26 AT 0600 20 NOVEMBER TROP DEPRESION (BOLAVEN) (0523) DOWNGRADED FROMTROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 18.0N 121.0E FORECAST TO MOVE NNE AT 02MPS ROUGH SECOND MOD TO ROUHSEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTMTD CNTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CNTER FORECAST POSITONS AT210600 20.2N121.9E AT 220600 22.2N 124.1E AT 230600 24.2N 127.0E ALLSHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH RPLL 200600 *** TTT WARNING 26 AT 0600 20 NOVEMBER TROP DEPRESION (BOLAVEN) (0523) DOWNGRADED FROMTROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 18.0N 121.0E FORECAST TO MOVE NNE AT 02MPS ROUGH SECOND MOD TO ROUHSEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTMTD CNTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CNTER FORECAST POSITONS AT210600 20.2N121.9E AT 220600 22.2N 124.1E AT 230600 24.2N 127.0E ALLSHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 201045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 200900 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 90 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (122.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 5 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 60 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTNT32 KNHC 201143 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 7 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 ...DISORGANIZED GAMMA WEAKENS INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION AS IT MEANDERS OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER TODAY. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 7 AM EST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.1 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES...120 KM... NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 215 MILES...345 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY. GAMMA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY...BUT A SLOW DRIFT TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION WILL BE POSSIBLE SINCE STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN STRENGTH ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. TROPICAL DEPRESSION GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUBA AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 7 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 85.1 W. MOVEMENT NEARLY STATIONARY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM EST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 201156 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 18A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 7 AM EST DOMINGO 20 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA DESORGANIZADA SE DEBILITA A UNA DEPRESION TROPICAL A MEDIDA QUE PERMANECE FUERA DE LA COSTA NORTE DE HONDURAS... EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BAY ISLANDS HONDURAS PODRIA SER DESCONTINUADO MAS TARDE HOY. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 7 AM EST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.1 OESTE O COMO A 75 MILLAS... 120 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE-NORESTE DE LIMON HONDURAS Y COMO A 215 MILLAS...345 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CIUDAD BELIZE. GAMMA HA ESTADO CASI ESTACIONARIA...PERO SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE O NORTE NOROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. SIN EMBARGO ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO PODRIA SER POSIBLE DEBIDO A QUE SE PRONOSTICA QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS PERMANEZCAN DEBILES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. ALGUNAS FLUCTUACIONES EN INTENSIDAD SON POSIBLES DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA MITAD SUR DE CUBA Y SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. BANDAS DE LLUVIA AL SUR DE GAMMA PUEDEN CAUSAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 7 AM EST...16.7 NORTE... 85.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO...CASI ESTACIONARIA. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$