** WTCA42 TJSJ 200018 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 16A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 6PM CST SABADO 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA...PERMANECE CENTRALIZADA NO MUY LEJOS DE LA COSTA DE HONDURAS Y SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA BAY ISLANDS DE HONDURAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. A LAS 6 PM CST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.7 OESTE O COMO A 245 MILLAS... 395 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CIUDAD DE BELIZE Y COMO A 65 MILLAS... 95 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LIMON HONDURAS. GAMMA SE ESTA DESPLAZANDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE O NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL OESTE DE CUBA... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE BELIZE Y EN EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS. BANDAS DE LLUVIA DETRAS DE GAMMA PODRIAN CAUSAR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6PM CST...16.4 NORTE... 84.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...HACIA EL NORESTE A 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 9 PM CST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 200000 *** WARNING 200000. WARNING VALID 210000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 996 HPA AT 16.5N 123.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 18.5N 122.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 200000UTC 16.5N 123.4E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 210000UTC 18.5N 122.6E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 200000 UTC 00HR 16.6N 123.1E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.7N 122.2E 998HPA 18M/S P+48HR 21.0N 124.6E 1002HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 200000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 200000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE NORTH-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE CDO BECAME INDISTINCT FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTAU05 APRF 200125 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:07S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0125UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0001UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seven decimal seven south [7.7S] Longitude ninety three decimal six east [93.6] Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds 45 knots. Central pressure 985 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots increasing 60 knot near centre during next 12 to 24 hours. Very rough to high seas and moderate swell increasing. At 1200UTC 20 November: 8.6 south 93.4 east 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 0001UTC 21 November: 9.4 south 93.1 east 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 200125 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:07S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0125UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0001UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seven decimal seven south [7.7S] Longitude ninety three decimal six east [93.6] Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds 45 knots. Central pressure 985 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots increasing 60 knot near centre during next 12 to 24 hours. Very rough to high seas and moderate swell increasing. At 1200UTC 20 November: 8.6 south 93.4 east 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 0001UTC 21 November: 9.4 south 93.1 east 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 200146 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:08S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0136UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 UPDATED STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0001UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seven decimal eight south [7.8S] Longitude ninety three decimal four east [93.4] Recent movement south southwest at 7 knots. Maximum winds 50 knots. Central pressure 985 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots, reaching 50 knots within 25 nautical miles of the centre. Wind increasing 60 knot near centre during next 12 to 24 hours. Very rough to high seas and heavy swell increasing. At 1200UTC 20 November: 8.9 south 93.0 east 980 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. At 0001UTC 21 November: 9.6 south 92.7 east 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 200146 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:08S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0136UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 UPDATED STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0001UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seven decimal eight south [7.8S] Longitude ninety three decimal four east [93.4] Recent movement south southwest at 7 knots. Maximum winds 50 knots. Central pressure 985 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots, reaching 50 knots within 25 nautical miles of the centre. Wind increasing 60 knot near centre during next 12 to 24 hours. Very rough to high seas and heavy swell increasing. At 1200UTC 20 November: 8.9 south 93.0 east 980 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. At 0001UTC 21 November: 9.6 south 92.7 east 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 200146 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:08S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0136UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 UPDATED STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0001UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seven decimal eight south [7.8S] Longitude ninety three decimal four east [93.4] Recent movement south southwest at 7 knots. Maximum winds 50 knots. Central pressure 985 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots, reaching 50 knots within 25 nautical miles of the centre. Wind increasing 60 knot near centre during next 12 to 24 hours. Very rough to high seas and heavy swell increasing. At 1200UTC 20 November: 8.9 south 93.0 east 980 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. At 0001UTC 21 November: 9.6 south 92.7 east 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 200146 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:08S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0136UTC 20 NOVEMBER 2005 UPDATED STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0001UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seven decimal eight south [7.8S] Longitude ninety three decimal four east [93.4] Recent movement south southwest at 7 knots. Maximum winds 50 knots. Central pressure 985 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Winds 35/45 knots, reaching 50 knots within 25 nautical miles of the centre. Wind increasing 60 knot near centre during next 12 to 24 hours. Very rough to high seas and heavy swell increasing. At 1200UTC 20 November: 8.9 south 93.0 east 980 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. At 0001UTC 21 November: 9.6 south 92.7 east 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPQ20 VHHH 200145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 200000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (123.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (121.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTAU10 ADRM 200206 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051120 0000 078S 0934E 203 036 0985 1010 0400 26 050 0250 0350 0350 0250 D = ** WTNT32 KNHC 200237 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED GAMMA MOVING SLOWLY WITH NO CHANGE IN STRENGTH... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 PM CST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 405 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 90 MILES... 145 KM...NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS. GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT THE MOTION COULD BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GAMMA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUBA AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 9 PM CST POSITION...16.6 N... 84.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT MIDNIGHT CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 AM CST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 200238 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0300Z SUN NOV 20 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 84.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 83.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 80.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 84.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 200239 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 9 PM CST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 6PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.4N 84.1W 56 X X X 56 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 6 6 19.5N 83.1W 32 1 X X 33 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 9 9 20.7N 80.6W 1 8 11 1 21 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 10 10 MDSD 185N 697W X X X 3 3 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 12 12 MDCB 176N 714W X X X 5 5 MYAK 241N 776W X X 2 11 13 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 7 7 MYNN 251N 775W X X 1 10 11 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 8 8 MYGF 266N 787W X X 1 7 8 MKJP 179N 768W X X 1 10 11 MARATHON FL X 1 7 5 13 MKJS 185N 779W X X 3 10 13 MIAMI FL X X 3 7 10 MWCG 193N 814W 8 7 6 1 22 W PALM BEACH FL X X 1 7 8 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 12 12 FT PIERCE FL X X X 5 5 MUCM 214N 779W X X 5 11 16 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 MUCF 221N 805W X 5 13 2 20 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 2 2 MUSN 216N 826W 8 11 5 X 24 KEY WEST FL X 1 9 3 13 MUHA 230N 824W 1 8 9 1 19 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 3 5 8 MUAN 219N 850W 1 11 4 X 16 FT MYERS FL X X 2 4 6 MMCZ 205N 869W X 4 3 X 7 VENICE FL X X 1 3 4 MHNJ 165N 859W 19 1 X X 20 TAMPA FL X X X 2 2 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 5 5 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 6PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 6PM SUN TO 6AM MON C FROM 6AM MON TO 6PM MON D FROM 6PM MON TO 6PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 6PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 200238 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0300Z SUN NOV 20 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.5W AT 20/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N 84.5W AT 20/0300Z AT 20/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 84.7W FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.3N 84.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 19.5N 83.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 20.7N 80.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 90SE 50SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.0N 73.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N 84.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 200300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 027 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 200000Z --- NEAR 16.9N 122.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.9N 122.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.7N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.9N 122.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.3N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 21.9N 125.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 24.8N 132.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 200300Z POSITION NEAR 17.1N 122.8E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS AND CONTINUED TO WEAKEN OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 200000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z, 201500Z, 202100Z AND 210300Z.// ** WTCA42 TJSJ 200258 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9PM CST SABADO 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE SIN CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA BAY ISLANDS DE HONDURAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. A LAS 9 PM CST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.6 NORTE...LONGITUD 84.5 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS... 405 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CIUDAD DE BELIZE Y COMO A 90 MILLAS... 145 KILOMETROS...AL NORESTE DE LIMON HONDURAS. GAMMA SE ESTA DESPLAZANDO ERRATICAMENTE HACIA EL NORESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO LENTO HACIA EL NORTE O NORESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. PERO EL MOVIMIENTO PUDIERA SER ERRATICO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERAN POCOS CAMBIOS EN INTENSIDAD DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. ALGUNAS RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PUEDEN TODAVIA ESTAR OCURRIENDO SOBRE LAS ELEVACIONES AL NORESTE DE HONDURAS AL SUR DEL CENTRO DE GAMMA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS A TRAVES DE LA MITAD SUR DE CUBA Y SOBRE LAS ISLAS CAYMAN. BANDAS DE LLUVIA AL SUR DE GAMMA PUEDEN CAUSAR ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 PM CST...16.6 NORTE... 84.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...HACIA EL NORESTE A 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 12 AM CST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 3 AM CST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 200300 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005 INTERMITTENT AND SMALL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION HAVE BEEN OCCURRING MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. FAIRLY STRONG WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE THE CONVECTION AWAY FROM THE CENTER AND PROHIBIT IT FROM PERSISTING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME MOSTLY OBSCURED IN INFRARED IMAGERY... BUT ITS ESTIMATED LOCATION RELATIVE TO THE DOWNSHEAR CONVECTION IS CONSISTENT WITH AN EXTRAPOLATED POSITION BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT POSITIONS. THE MOTION DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS HAS BEEN NORTHEASTWARD OR ABOUT 050/5... BUT THIS MOTION MIGHT NOT YET BE DEFINITIVE. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO WHILE GAMMA IS WEST OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DRAGGED ALONG BY THE CONVECTION SHEARED FROM THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES IS FORECAST BY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEEPEN AND MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE ASSOCIATED DEVELOPMENT OF AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN U.S. OR NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS OR SO. AS THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES UP THE EAST COAST OF THE U.S... A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN 2-3 DAYS... WITH GAMMA ADVANCING AHEAD OF THAT FRONT. SEVERAL OF THE MODELS... INCLUDING THE GFS... GFDL... AND NOGAPS... FORECAST GAMMA TO MEANDER NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL THE FRONT ARRIVES IN THE CARIBBEAN... AND THEN CALL FOR A MUCH WEAKER OR POSSIBLY DISSIPATING GAMMA TO MOVE EASTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF CUBA. ONE PROBLEM WITH THESE MODELS IS THAT THEY DO NOT INITIALIZE THE POSITION OR NORTHEASTWARD MOTION OF GAMMA VERY WELL... SO THEIR EVENTUAL THEIR TRACKS TO THE EAST COULD BE TOO SLOW. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS EAST OF MOST OF THE MODELS DURING THE FIRST 36 HOURS... BUT THEREAFTER IT GENERALLY FOLLOWS THE MODEL TRENDS IN ANTICIPATING A WEAKENING GAMMA TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN CUBA AHEAD OF THE FRONT THAT PROBABLY WILL EVENTUALLY ABSORB IT. NO FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF GAMMA IS FORECAST... SINCE THE WIND SHEAR IS ONLY EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AS THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PROCEEDS TOWARD THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS STEADY WEAKENING... ONLY HOLDING ON TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH FOR ABOUT 24 MORE HOURS. THE GFDL FORECAST OF INTENSIFICATION TO ABOUT 60 KT WITHIN THE NEXT TWO DAYS IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE ESTABLISHED TRACK RECORD OF THAT MODEL OVER-INTENSIFYING SYSTEMS IN A STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST DOES NOT QUITE SHOW THE RATE OF WEAKENING THAT THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES... BUT IT IS A DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GAMMA COULD WEAKEN FASTER THAN FORECAST AND PERHAPS DISSIPATE BEFORE IT EVER BECOMES ENTANGLED WITH THE COLD FRONT. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 20/0300Z 16.6N 84.5W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/1200Z 17.3N 84.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 21/0000Z 18.4N 84.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 21/1200Z 19.5N 83.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 22/0000Z 20.7N 80.6W 35 KT 72HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 73.0W 30 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ ** WTPH RPLL 200000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 25 AT 0000 20 NOVEMBER TROP STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 17.0N 122.4E FORECAST TO MOVE NNW AT 02MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HECTOPASCALS MAX WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER POSITIONS AT 210000 19.2N 122.3E AT 220000 21.4N 124.2E AT 230000 23.3N 127.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 200000 *** T T T GALE WARNING 25 AT 0000 20 NOVENBER TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SUFACE DATA AT ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 210000 ONE NINE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST AT 220000 TWO ONE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT TWO EAST AT 230000 TWO THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 200300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 200300UTC 16.7N 123.4E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 210300UTC 18.6N 122.6E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 200300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 200300 UTC 00HR 17.0N 123.0E 996HPA 18M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 200445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 HECTOPASCALS. AT 200300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (123.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (121.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 20 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 230300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTNT32 KNHC 200544 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 17A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EST SUN NOV 20 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED GAMMA MEANDERING NORTHWARD OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.0 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 110 KM...NORTH-NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 225 MILES... 360 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY. GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE NORTH NEAR 3 MPH... 6 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION GENERALLY TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... BUT THE MOTION COULD BE SOMEWHAT ERRATIC. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GAMMA. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE RECENTLY REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CUBA AND OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 85.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH NEAR 3 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM EST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT80 EGRR 200554 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 20.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N 84.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 20.11.2005 17.1N 84.5W MODERATE 12UTC 20.11.2005 17.1N 84.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2005 17.3N 84.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 21.11.2005 17.7N 84.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2005 17.7N 82.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 22.11.2005 17.7N 79.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.11.2005 16.5N 77.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.11.2005 15.2N 74.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 24.11.2005 14.8N 74.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 24.11.2005 13.6N 73.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 25.11.2005 13.9N 72.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 25.11.2005 13.7N 73.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 26.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 200554