** WTAU10 ADRM 191802 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051119 1800 072S 0936E 215 041 0985 1010 0400 23 080 0250 0350 0350 0250 D = ** WTCA42 TJSJ 191808 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 15A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL MEDIODIA CST SABADO 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DESORGANIZADA GAMMA OTRA VEZ RE-LOCALIZADA HACIA EL SURESTE POR EL AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO... CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD DE BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE BELIZE Y MEXICO...Y PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE BELIZE Y MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGINIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL NORTE DE PUNTA GRUESA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TULUM. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. AL MEDIODIA CST...1800Z...EL AMPLIO CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.2 OESTE O COMO A 220 MILLAS... 335 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CIUDAD DE BELIZE Y COMO A 315 MILLAS... 505 KILOMETROS...AL SUR-SURESTE DE TULUM MEXICO. GAMMA SE ESTA DESPLAZANDO HACIA EL NORTE. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL NORTE CON UN AUMENTO EN LA VELOCIDAD DE TRASLACION DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. REPORTES DESDE UN AVION CAZA HURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA INDICAN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LAS IMAGENES DE SATELITE MUESTRAN QUE GAMMA SE HA TORNADO MENOS ORGANIZADA DURANTE LAS PASADAS HORAS...Y SOLO ES POSIBLE ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA QUE ACABA DE REPORTAR EL CAZA HURACANES ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL OESTE DE CUBA... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE BELIZE Y EN EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS. BANDAS DE LLUVIA DETRAS DE GAMMA PODRIAN CAUSAR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION AL MEDIODIA CST...16.2 NORTE... 85.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...DESPLAZANDOSE HACIA EL NORTE. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS... 45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 3 PM CST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTJP21 RJTD 191800 *** WARNING 191800. WARNING VALID 201800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 992 HPA AT 16.6N 123.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 18.6N 122.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 19.5N 121.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1008 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 191800UTC 16.6N 123.4E POOR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 201800UTC 18.6N 122.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 211800UTC 19.5N 121.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 191800 UTC 00HR 16.5N 123.4E 992HPA 23M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.7N 122.3E 998HPA 18M/S P+48HR 20.5N 122.8E 1002HPA 15M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 026 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 16.6N 123.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 123.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.5N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.2N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 19.3N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 20.9N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 23.5N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 26.6N 139.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 123.2E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 24W HAS SLOWED OVER THE PAST SIX TO TWELVE HOURS AS THE SYSTEM STARTS TO RECURVE. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200300Z, 200900Z, 201500Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 191945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 191800 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (123.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201800 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (120.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (115.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221800 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTXS31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190951ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 7.5S 93.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.5S 93.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 8.4S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 9.4S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 10.4S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.2S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 7.7S 93.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S IS STEADILY IMPROVING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190951ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 192031 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST SAT NOV 19 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF GAMMA IS 30 N MI OR MORE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOCATION OF THE PREVIOUS TWO ADVISORIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED TO THE SOUTH OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS...WHICH APPEARS RAGGED AND DISORGANIZED. HOWEVER...THE HURRICANE HUNTER REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB AND FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT 25-30 N MI NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE AIRCRAFT DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 360/2 BASED ON 24 HR OF MOTION. HOWEVER...THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS A SHORT-TERM EASTWARD DRIFT. GAMMA IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK STEERING CURRENT SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BETWEEN SEGMENTS OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE RIDGES TO BREAK DOWN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH AND SURFACE LOW DEVELOP OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND ADJACENT WATERS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THIS DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TURN GAMMA MORE NORTHEASTWARD WITH TIME. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO BRING A STRONGER GAMMA TO THE NORTH OF THE OTHER MODELS...ALTHOUGH IT HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD ON ITS LATEST RUN. THE GFS AND UKMET CALL FOR A MORE EASTWARD MOTION ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. DUE TO THE MODEL TRENDS ALONG WITH THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION... THE NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS CHANGED CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS TRACK...CALLING FOR GAMMA TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD FOR 24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST WITH SOME ACCELERATION TOWARD CENTRAL CUBA. THIS TRACK IS WELL SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND CALLS FOR LESS ACCELERATION AFTER 36 HR. THIS IS STILL A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK COULD OCCUR TONIGHT BASED ON DATA FROM THE FLIGHT OF THE NOAA G4 JET CURRENTLY UNDERWAY. ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOWS 20-30 KT OF SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR OVER GAMMA. EVEN WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY FORECAST TRACK THAN 6 HR AGO...THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE...WHICH WILL ALLOW LITTLE IF ANY STRENGTHENING. ALSO...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK...THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP WELL INTO THE CARIBBEAN AND CATCH GAMMA. BASED ON THESE TWO PREMISES...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL HOLD THE INTENSITY AT 40 KT UNTIL 72 HR...WHEN GAMMA SHOULD BE MERGING WITH THE FRONT. THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD ABSORB GAMMA BY 96 HR. AN ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO IS THAT THE SHEAR COULD WEAKEN GAMMA EVEN BEFORE THE FRONT CATCHES IT. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 16.3N 85.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.8N 85.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.8N 85.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 18.9N 84.8W 40 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 20.7N 83.2W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 23.0N 76.0W 35 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 192031 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 2100Z SAT NOV 19 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. ALSO AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 85.2W AT 19/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 85.2W AT 19/2100Z AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.8N 85.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.8N 85.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N 84.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 20.7N 83.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 23.0N 76.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 0NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 85.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 192032 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 ...DISORGANIZED GAMMA DRIFTING ERRATICALLY OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE. ALSO AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ALONG THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 215 MILES... 345 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM...NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS. GAMMA IS DRIFTING ERRATICALLY NORTHWARD. A SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS NOW APPEAR UNFAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING...AND LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES...165 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE MAY OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. REPEATING THE 3 PM CST POSITION...16.3 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 6 PM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 9 PM CST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 192032 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 12PM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.8N 85.1W 55 X X X 55 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 6 6 18.9N 84.8W 30 1 1 X 32 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 9 9 20.7N 83.2W 1 12 10 2 25 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 11 11 MTPP 186N 724W X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 13 13 MTCA 183N 738W X X X 3 3 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 12 12 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 6 6 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 10 10 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 9 9 MMMD 210N 897W X X 2 1 3 MWCG 193N 814W X 3 9 4 16 MARATHON FL X X 4 12 16 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 8 8 MIAMI FL X X 1 12 13 MUCM 214N 779W X X 1 13 14 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 11 11 MUCF 221N 805W X X 8 10 18 FT PIERCE FL X X X 8 8 MUSN 216N 826W X 6 14 2 22 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 14 5 20 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 4 4 MUAN 219N 850W 1 12 10 1 24 KEY WEST FL X X 7 9 16 MMCZ 205N 869W 4 11 4 1 20 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 2 10 12 MZBZ 175N 883W 2 4 2 X 8 FT MYERS FL X X 1 9 10 MGPB 157N 886W X 1 1 X 2 VENICE FL X X 1 8 9 MHNJ 165N 859W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X X X 6 6 MNPC 141N 834W 1 1 X 1 3 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 3 3 MDPP 198N 707W X X X 2 2 GULF 29N 85W X X X 2 2 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 12PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 12PM SUN TO 0AM MON C FROM 0AM MON TO 12PM MON D FROM 12PM MON TO 12PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 12PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTXS31 PGTW 192100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190951ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 7.5S 93.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.5S 93.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 8.4S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 9.4S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS ** WTXS31 PGTW 192100 RRB *** --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 10.4S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.2S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 7.7S 93.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S IS STEADILY IMPROVING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190951ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 192100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/MSG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/190951ZNOV2005// AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (BERTIE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191800Z --- NEAR 7.5S 93.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 7.5S 93.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 8.4S 93.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 9.4S 93.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 205 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 10.4S 92.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 210 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 11.2S 92.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 192100Z POSITION NEAR 7.7S 93.6E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (BERTIE), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 330 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTH- SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 03S IS STEADILY IMPROVING IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 190951ZNOV2005 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 191000). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191800Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 200900Z AND 202100Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 192100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 192100 UTC 00HR 16.9N 123.3E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 180KM P12HR NNW 10KM/H P+24HR 18.9N 122.3E 998HPA 18M/S P+48HR 20.6N 124.3E 1002HPA 15M/S= ** WTPH20 RPMM 191800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 24 AT 1800 19 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH WEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER POSITIONS AT 101800 ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AT 211800 TWO ONE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FOUR EAST AT 221800 TWO FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 192100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 192100UTC 16.9N 123.4E POOR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 100NM FORECAST 24HF 202100UTC 18.6N 122.7E 80NM 70% MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 211800UTC 19.5N 121.6E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH RPLL 191800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 24 AT 1800 19 NOVEMBER TROP STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 16.6N 123.4E FORECAST TO MOVE NNW AT 02MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS MAX WINDS 20MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER POSITIONS AT 201800 17.8N 122.0E AT 211800 21.0N 121.4E AT 221800 24.0N 124.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 192245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 192100 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (123.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 202100 UTC ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (16.8 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 212100 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 222100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER SEA. ** WTNT32 KNHC 192355 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 ...GAMMA REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... STILL CENTERED NOT FAR OFF THE COAST OF HONDURAS AND MOVING SLOWLY... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 PM CST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 84.7 WEST OR ABOUT 245 MILES... 395 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 65 MILES... 95 KM... NORTHEAST OF LIMON HONDURAS. GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 6 MPH... 10 KM/HR. A CONTINUED SLOW MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. SOME GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE COULD STILL OCCUR OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF GAMMA. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA... WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. RAIN BANDS SOUTH OF GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. REPEATING THE 6 PM CST POSITION...16.4 N... 84.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHEAST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM CST. FORECASTER KNABB $$