** WTCA42 TJSJ 191206 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 14A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 6 AM CST SABADO 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA COSTA DE BELIZE Y PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE BELIZE/MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGINIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA BELIZE PODRIA SER DESCONTINUADO TARDE ESTA MANANA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL NORTE DE PUNTA GRUESA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TULUM. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 6 AM EST...1200Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 17.1 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.3 OSTE O COMO A 130 MILLAS...205 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CIUDAD BELIZE Y COMO A 230 MILLAS...365 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE TOLUM MEXICO. GAMMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE MAS TARDE HOY. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORTE DE BELIZE...EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE A TRAVES DEL NORTE DE BELIZE TARDE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6 AM CST...17.1 NORTE...86.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 9 AM CST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTJP21 RJTD 191200 *** WARNING 191200. WARNING VALID 201200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 990 HPA AT 16.3N 123.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 18.2N 122.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 19.0N 121.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 191200UTC 16.3N 123.8E POOR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 201200UTC 18.2N 122.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 211200UTC 19.0N 121.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTAU10 ADRM 191242 *** BTAB YPDM 01U BERTIE 051119 1200 068S 0938E 215 041 0990 1010 0400 21 080 0250 0350 0350 0250 D = ** WTAU05 APRF 191243 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:07S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1235UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude six decimal eight south [6.8S] Longitude ninety three decimal eight east [93.8] Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 990 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Sustained winds to 40 knots near centre increasing to 55 knots by 20/1200UTC. Within 100 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0000UTC 20 November: 7.6 south 93.7 east 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 20 November: 8.6 south 93.3 east 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1800 UTC 19 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 191243 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:07S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1235UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude six decimal eight south [6.8S] Longitude ninety three decimal eight east [93.8] Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 990 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Sustained winds to 40 knots near centre increasing to 55 knots by 20/1200UTC. Within 100 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0000UTC 20 November: 7.6 south 93.7 east 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 20 November: 8.6 south 93.3 east 975 hPa. Winds to 55 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1800 UTC 19 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 191200 UTC 00HR 16.0N 123.9E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 17.0N 121.9E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 17.5N 119.6E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 17.4N 117.3E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 191345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 191200 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201200 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (120.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211200 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (116.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221200 UTC ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT72 KNHC 191430 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 9 AM CST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 6AM CST TUE NOV 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.7N 86.4W 56 X X X 56 MIAMI FL X X 1 17 18 20.0N 85.8W 23 5 X 1 29 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 17 17 21.9N 84.0W X 10 13 1 24 FT PIERCE FL X X X 16 16 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 15 15 MWCG 193N 814W X 1 4 6 11 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 12 12 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 9 9 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 9 9 SAVANNAH GA X X X 5 5 MUCF 221N 805W X X 3 13 16 CHARLESTON SC X X X 4 4 MUSN 216N 826W X 3 13 5 21 MYRTLE BEACH SC X X X 3 3 MUHA 230N 824W X 1 12 8 21 WILMINGTON NC X X X 2 2 MUAN 219N 850W 1 15 10 X 26 KEY WEST FL X X 6 14 20 MMCZ 205N 869W 16 11 1 X 28 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 2 17 19 MZBZ 175N 883W 24 1 X X 25 FT MYERS FL X X 2 16 18 MGPB 157N 886W 6 1 X X 7 VENICE FL X X 2 15 17 MHNJ 165N 859W 99 X X X 99 TAMPA FL X X 1 14 15 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 3 3 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 11 11 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 7 7 ST MARKS FL X X X 7 7 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 9 9 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 7 7 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 13 13 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 14 14 PENSACOLA FL X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 15 15 GULF 29N 85W X X X 9 9 MMMD 210N 897W 1 6 3 1 11 GULF 29N 87W X X X 4 4 MARATHON FL X X 3 16 19 GULF 28N 89W X X X 2 2 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 6AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 6AM SUN TO 6PM SUN C FROM 6PM SUN TO 6AM MON D FROM 6AM MON TO 6AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 6AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 191431 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 ...GAMMA RE-LOCATED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHEAST...MOVING SLOWLY ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BELIZE SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE MEXICO BORDER...AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. AT 9 AM CST...1500Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.9 WEST OR ABOUT 160 MILES... 255 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 255 MILES... 415 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO. GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAIN BANDS TRAILING GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE 9 AM CST POSITION...16.8 N... 85.9 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT NOON CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 PM CST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 191431 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 1500Z SAT NOV 19 2005 AT 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF BELIZE SOUTH OF BELIZE CITY. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE MEXICO BORDER...AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 85.9W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 85.9W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 85.9W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.6N 86.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.7N 86.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 21.9N 84.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 27.5N 76.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N 85.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 191452 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005 VISIBLE IMAGERY AND RECENT MICROWAVE DATA FROM TRMM AND SSM/I SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF GAMMA IS A LITTLE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. THIS POSITION IS INDICATIVE OF THE 20-30 KT VERTICAL SHEAR ANALYZED BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM TAFB...AND 35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 330/4. GAMMA IS SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND BETWEEN TWO SEGMENTS OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY AGREE THAT THESE RIDGES WILL BREAK DOWN DURING THE NEXT 48-72 HR AS A STRONG DEEP-LAYER TROUGH CAUSES A FRONTAL LOW TO FORM OVER FLORIDA OR THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD CAUSE GAMMA TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR POSSIBLY EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS. THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A WEAKER GAMMA TURNING MORE EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN...WHILE THE GFDL WITH ITS STRONGER STORM CALLS FOR A NORTHEASTWARD MOTION NEAR THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSEST TO...BUT SOUTH OF...THE GFDL...AND IS NUDGED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BASED ON THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. THIS IS STILL A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN FORECAST...AND ADDITIONAL CHANGES TO THE TRACK COULD OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON DATA FROM THE FLIGHT OF THE NOAA G4 JET STARTING AT 18Z. GAMMA IS ALREADY UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE DURING THE NEXT 72 HR. THIS SHOULD NOT ALLOW GAMMA TO STRENGTHEN SIGNIFICANTLY. THE SHIPS MODEL WEAKENS THE SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFDL CALLS FOR IT TO PEAK AT 60 KT IN ABOUT 48 HR. THE LATTER MIGHT BE A BIT OPTIMISTIC IN LIGHT OF THE FORECAST SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL CALL FOR SOME MODEST STRENGTHENING IN THE FIRST 12 HR...THEN KEEP THE INTENSITY AT 45 KT THROUGH THE REST OF THE LIFE OF THE CYCLONE. THE BAROCLINIC LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARE FORECAST TO BE STRONG ENOUGH THAT...REGARDLESS OF THE EXACT TRACK OF GAMMA...THEY SHOULD ABSORB GAMMA AFTER 72 HR. THE RECENT MICROWAVE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER MIGHT BE A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTHEAST OF THE NEW ADVISORY POSITION. IF THIS IS THE CASE...AN ADDITIONAL RE-LOCATION MAY BE NECESSARY AFTER THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER REACHES THE STORM AROUND 18Z. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/1500Z 16.8N 85.9W 40 KT 12HR VT 20/0000Z 17.6N 86.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/1200Z 18.7N 86.4W 45 KT 36HR VT 21/0000Z 20.0N 85.8W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1200Z 21.9N 84.0W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/1200Z 27.5N 76.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/1200Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 191500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 025 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 191200Z --- NEAR 16.5N 123.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.5N 123.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 17.5N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 18.4N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 19.3N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 20.3N 122.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 22.9N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 20 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 25.9N 136.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 191500Z POSITION NEAR 16.8N 123.3E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 191200Z IS 20 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 192100Z, 200300Z, 200900Z AND 201500Z.// BT #0001 ** WTCA42 TJSJ 191457 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 15 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9 AM CST SABADO 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA RE-LOCALIZADA LIGERAMENTE AL SURESTE...MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE A TRAVES DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... A LAS 9 AM CST...1500 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE BELIZE HA DESCONTINUADO EL AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA SUR DE BELIZE AL SUR DE LA CIUDAD DE BELIZE. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA DE BELIZE DESDE CIUDAD DE BELIZE HACIA EL NORTE HASTA LA FRONTERA ENTRE BELIZE Y MEXICO...Y PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE BELIZE Y MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGINIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL NORTE DE PUNTA GRUESA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TULUM. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. A LAS 9 AM EST...1500Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.9 OESTE O COMO A 160 MILLAS...255 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CIUDAD DE BELIZE Y COMO A 255 MILLAS... 415 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE TULUM MEXICO. GAMMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH... 7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL OESTE DE CUBA... CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS. ACUMULACIONES ADICIONALES DE LLUVIA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NORTE DE BELIZE Y EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO...CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 8 PULGADAS. BANDAS DE LLUVIA DETRAS DE GAMMA PODRIAN CAUSAR ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS SOBRE PARTES DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 AM CST...16.8 NORTE... 85.9 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NORTE-NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES AL MEDIODIA CST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 3 PM CST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 191500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 191500 UTC 00HR 16.3N 123.5E 985HPA 28M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 191200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 23 AT 1200 19 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST FOREDAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER POSITIONS AT 201200 ONE EIGHT POINT WO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE EAST AT 211200 TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 191500 *** WARNING 191500. WARNING VALID 201500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 990 HPA AT 16.5N 123.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 120 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201500UTC AT 18.4N 122.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 191500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 191500UTC 16.5N 123.5E POOR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 120NM FORECAST 24HF 201500UTC 18.4N 122.3E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 211200UTC 19.0N 121.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPH RPLL 191200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 23 AT 1200 19 NOVEMBER TROP STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SAT. AND SFC DATA AT 16.4N 123.3E FORECAST TO MOVE NW AT 04MPS ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM THE CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS MAX WINDS 20MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 200KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER POSITIONS AT 201200 18.2N 120.3E AT 211200 20.8N 118.2E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANLA PD= ** WTPQ20 VHHH 191645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 191500 UTC, TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (123.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 201500 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (120.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 211500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (115.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 221500 UTC ONE TWO POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (12.3 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (112.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 191725 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 19.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 85.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 19.11.2005 17.0N 85.8W STRONG 00UTC 20.11.2005 17.4N 85.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 18.2N 85.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 21.11.2005 18.9N 85.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2005 20.0N 84.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 22.11.2005 20.9N 81.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2005 EXTRA-TROPICAL THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 191725 ** WTNT32 KNHC 191751 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL NOON CST SAT NOV 19 2005 ...DISORGANIZED GAMMA AGAIN RE-LOCATED TO THE SOUTHEAST BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD TO THE BELIZE MEXICO BORDER...AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. AT NOON CST...1800Z...THE BROAD CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.2 WEST OR ABOUT 220 MILES... 335 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 315 MILES... 505 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO. GAMMA IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD. A NORTHWARD MOTION WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED ARE EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THAT GAMMA HAS BECOME LESS ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS...AND ONLY SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM FROM THE CENTER. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE JUST REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE HUNTER IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN BELIZE AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAIN BANDS TRAILING GAMMA COULD CAUSE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. REPEATING THE NOON CST POSITION...16.2 N... 85.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...DRIFTING NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 3 PM CST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTAU05 APRF 191758 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:07S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1757UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seven decimal two south [7.2S] Longitude ninety three decimal six east [93.6] Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds 45 knots. Central pressure 985 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Sustained winds to 45 knots near centre increasing to 60 knots by 20/1800UTC. Within 100 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 20 November: 8.1 south 93.5 east 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 20 November: 8.9 south 93.2 east 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 191758 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:07S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1757UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude seven decimal two south [7.2S] Longitude ninety three decimal six east [93.6] Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds 45 knots. Central pressure 985 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Sustained winds to 45 knots near centre increasing to 60 knots by 20/1800UTC. Within 100 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 20 November: 8.1 south 93.5 east 980 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 20 November: 8.9 south 93.2 east 970 hPa. Winds to 60 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 20 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH