** WTCA42 TJSJ 190606 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 1 AM EST SABADO 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA TORNANDOSE LENTAMENTE MEJOR ORGANIZADA A MEDIDA QUE SE ALEJA DE LA COSTA NORTE DE HONDURAS... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA COSTA DE BELIZE Y PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE BELIZE/MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGINIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL NORTE DE PUNTA GRUESA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TULUM. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LA 1 AM EST...0600Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA SE ESTIMABA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.1 OSTE O COMO A 155 MILLAS...250 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE SURESTE DE CIUDAD BELIZE Y COMO A 185 MILLAS...295 KM...AL SURESTE DE PUNTA GRUESA MEXICO. GAMMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...AUNQUE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE DEBIDO A QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SON DEBILES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE BELIZE...EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS. LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 2 A 4 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS TOTALES DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE HONDURAS. LA LLUVIA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE A TRAVES DE HONDURAS Y BELIZE TARDE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LA 1 AM EST...16.7 NORTE...86.1 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMAQ ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTAU05 APRF 190633 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S095E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0635UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude six decimal two south [6.2S] Longitude ninety four decimal three east [94.3E] Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 995 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Sustained winds to 40 knots near centre increasing to 50 knots by 20/0000UTC. Within 100 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1800UTC 19 November: 7.1 south 94.3 east 990 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 20 November: 8.1 south 94.1 east 985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 19 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 190633 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S095E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0635UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0600UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude six decimal two south [6.2S] Longitude ninety four decimal three east [94.3E] Recent movement south southwest at 8 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 995 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Sustained winds to 40 knots near centre increasing to 50 knots by 20/0000UTC. Within 100 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1800UTC 19 November: 7.1 south 94.3 east 990 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. At 0600UTC 20 November: 8.1 south 94.1 east 985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 19 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTIN20 DEMS 190643 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 19-11-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 15.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 190600 *** WARNING 190600. WARNING VALID 200600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 980 HPA AT 15.5N 124.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 16.3N 122.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 17.1N 119.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 17.0N 117.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 15.5N 124.6E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 200600UTC 16.3N 122.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 210600UTC 17.1N 119.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 220600UTC 17.0N 117.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTIN20 DEMS 190643 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 19-11-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND SOUTH ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 15.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 190600 *** WARNING 190600. WARNING VALID 200600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 980 HPA AT 15.5N 124.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 16.3N 122.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 17.1N 119.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220600UTC AT 17.0N 117.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 190600UTC 15.5N 124.6E FAIR MOVE W 10KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 200600UTC 16.3N 122.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 210600UTC 17.1N 119.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 72HF 220600UTC 17.0N 117.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 190600 UTC 00HR 15.4N 124.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 16.2N 122.4E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 17.2N 120.4E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 17.9N 118.4E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 190600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN ANALYSIS POSITION 190600UTC 15.5N 124.6E MOVEMENT W 10KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 200600UTC 16.5N 122.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 210600UTC 17.3N 120.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT 72HR POSITION 220600UTC 17.4N 117.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTKO20 RKSL 190600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN ANALYSIS POSITION 190600UTC 15.5N 124.6E MOVEMENT W 10KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 200600UTC 16.5N 122.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT 48HR POSITION 210600UTC 17.3N 120.3E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 37KT 72HR POSITION 220600UTC 17.4N 117.9E WITHIN 0NM PRES 998HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 190745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (15.3 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (124.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 150 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE TWO ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (121.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220600 UTC ONE FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (14.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 190900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 024 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190600Z --- NEAR 15.9N 124.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.9N 124.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.7N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.5N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 18.6N 121.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 20.0N 123.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 22.1N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 070 DEG/ 15 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 24.0N 134.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 124.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 205 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190600Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 191500Z, 192100Z, 200300Z AND 200900Z.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 190833 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005 SINCE THE LAST RECON FLIGHT... DEEP CONVECTION HAS REDEVELOPED OVER AND NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... AND HAS ALSO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY BASED ON A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45 KT FROM TAFB AND T2.5/35 KT FROM SAB AND AFWA. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/05. UPPER-AIR DATA AT 00Z... ALBEIT LIMITED ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN AREA EXCEPT FOR BELIZE... INDICATE A BREAK IN THE 500 MB AND 400 MB RIDGE AXES ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...YUCATAN CHANNEL... WESTERN CUBA AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF GAMMA IS ALSO BEGINNING TO APPEAR AT THE 700 MB LEVEL. THE COMBINATION OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE ALONG 85W LONGITUDE AND THE MODERATE TO STRONG UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SHOULD OPEN AN ALLEY FOR GAMMA TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER THAT... A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CURRENTLY OVER THE U.S. PLAINS STATES ARE FORECAST BY ALL THE MODELS TO MERGE AND DEVELOP INTO A HIGH-AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. AND THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO BY 72 HOURS. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE SOUTHWESTERLY TO WESTERLY STEERING FLOW NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE BY 60-72 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN GAMMA LIFTING OUT TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN CUBA... THE BAHAMAS... AND POSSIBLY SOUTH FLORIDA. THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE GAMMA OR KEEP IT TRAPPED IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS... WHICH SEEMS UNREASONABLE GIVEN THE VERTICALLY DEEP CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE 00Z UPPER-AIR DATA. AS SUCH...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE TOWARD THE GFDL SOLUTION SINCE THAT MODEL MAINTAINS A DEEP TROPICAL CYCLONE THROUGH 120 HOURS. SINCE SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ACROSS GAMMA THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD... ONLY SLIGHT INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND SHIPS MODELS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.9N 86.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 17.5N 86.7W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 18.4N 86.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 86.3W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W 45 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 96HR VT 23/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 190834 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0900Z SAT NOV 19 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 86.2W AT 19/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 30SE 30SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 86.2W AT 19/0900Z AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.7N 86.1W FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 86.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.4N 86.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 22.0N 84.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z 26.0N 79.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0600Z 38.0N 67.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0600Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 86.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 190834 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM EST TUE NOV 22 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 18.4N 86.8W 47 1 X X 48 MIAMI FL X X X 13 13 20.0N 86.3W 12 15 2 X 29 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 12 12 22.0N 84.3W X 3 17 2 22 FT PIERCE FL X X X 11 11 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 3 3 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 10 10 MWCG 193N 814W X X 5 5 10 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 9 9 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 2 2 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 6 6 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 7 7 SAVANNAH GA X X X 3 3 MUCF 221N 805W X X 2 11 13 KEY WEST FL X X 3 13 16 MUSN 216N 826W X X 12 6 18 MARCO ISLAND FL X X 1 14 15 MUHA 230N 824W X X 8 10 18 FT MYERS FL X X 1 13 14 MUAN 219N 850W X 6 17 1 24 VENICE FL X X X 13 13 MMCZ 205N 869W 9 18 2 X 29 TAMPA FL X X X 11 11 MZBZ 175N 883W 28 1 X X 29 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 9 9 MGPB 157N 886W 7 X X X 7 ST MARKS FL X X X 6 6 MHNJ 165N 859W 99 X X X 99 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 4 4 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 6 6 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 10 10 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 10 10 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 11 11 GULF 29N 85W X X X 8 8 MMMD 210N 897W 2 12 2 X 16 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 MARATHON FL X X 1 14 15 GULF 28N 89W X X X 4 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN C FROM 1PM SUN TO 1AM MON D FROM 1AM MON TO 1AM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 190841 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM GAMMA CONTINUING TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AWAY FROM HONDURAS AND BELIZE... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.2 WEST OR ABOUT 140 MILES... 225 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 245 MILES... 390 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO. GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...16.9 N... 86.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 AM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 AM EST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 190600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 22 AT 0600 19 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE POSITIONS AT 200600 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST AT 210600 ONE NINE POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190927 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 14 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM EST SABADO 19 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL NOROESTE ALEJANDOSE DE HONDURAS Y BELIZE... ESTA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA COSTA DE BELIZE Y PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL TAMBIEN ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENISULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO DESDE LA FRONTERA ENTRE BELIZE/MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA GRUESA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGINIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL ESTA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL NORTE DE PUNTA GRUESA HACIA EL NORTE HASTA TULUM. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 4 AM EST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.9 NORTE...LONGITUD 86.2 OSTE O COMO A 140 MILLAS...225 KILOMETROS...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE CIUDAD BELIZE Y COMO A 245 MILLAS...390 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE TOLUM MEXICO. GAMMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH...9 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO GRADUAL HACIA EL NORTE NOROESTE MAS TARDE HOY. SIN EMBARGO PODRIA OCURRIR ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO DEBIDO A QUE LAS CORRIENTES CONDUCTORAS SON DEBILES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 45 MPH...75 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA HASTA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1005 MILIBARAS...29.68 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE EL NORTE DE BELIZE...EL OESTE DE CUBA...Y EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DE MEXICO CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 15 PULGADAS. LA LLUVIA DISMINUIRA GRADUALMENTE A TRAVES DEL NORTE DE BELIZE TARDE HOY. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM EST...16.9 NORTE...86.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 6 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1005 MILIBARAS. UN ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 AM EST SEGUIDA POR LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 190900 UTC 00HR 15.7N 124.3E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 70KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.7N 122.2E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 190900UTC 16.1N 124.0E POOR MOVE NW 12KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 200900UTC 16.9N 122.6E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 210600UTC 17.1N 119.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 69HF 220600UTC 17.0N 117.4E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTJP31 RJTD 190900 *** WARNING 190900. WARNING VALID 200900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 985 HPA AT 16.1N 124.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION POOR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200900UTC AT 16.9N 122.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 190600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 22 AT 0600 19 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINTEIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH-WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 10KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTMTD CNTRL PRSSSURE 991 HECTOPASCALS MAX WWNDS 23MPS NEAR THE CNTER 13MPS WITHIN 25KMS RADIUS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 100KMS ELSEWHERE POSITION AT 200600 15.2N 120.0E AT 210600 19.6N 116.5E ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 VHHH 191045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 190900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (124.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE TWO ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (120.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210900 UTC ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (15.8 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (116.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220900 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (112.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTXS21 PGTW 191000 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 190951ZNOV05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.0S 94.0E TO 10.9S 93.7E WITH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 190900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 93.9E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 08 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 3.9S 94.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.9S 93.9E, APPROXIMATELY 360 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. RECENT ENHANCED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS INCREASING CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING OVER A LOW LEVEL CIRCULA- TION CENTER (LLCC) AND EVIDENCE OF A BANDING FEATURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTI- MATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 201000Z. // ** WTNT32 KNHC 191155 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 14A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 AM CST SAT NOV 19 2005 ...GAMMA MOVING SLOWLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BELIZE WILL LIKELY BE DISCONTINUED LATER THIS MORNING. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 AM CST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.1 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.3 WEST OR ABOUT 130 MILES... 205 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 230 MILES... 365 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TULUM MEXICO. GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH... 9 KM/HR. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES ...165 KM...MAINLY NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER NORTHERN BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS NORTHERN BELIZE LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 6 AM CST POSITION...17.1 N... 86.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 6 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 AM CST. FORECASTER STEWART $$