** WTNT32 KNHC 190001 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 6 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 ...GAMMA STILL DISORGANIZED AS IT MOVES SLOWLY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 6 PM CST...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35 MILES... 55 KM... NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 180 MILES... 290 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE. GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH... 6 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. EARLIER REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 70 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES... 140 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 6 PM CST POSITION...16.2 N... 85.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 4 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 9 PM CST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTSR20 WSSS 181800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190008 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 6 PM CST VIERNES 18 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA DE BELIZE Y PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL BORDE ENTRE BELIZE Y MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA ALLEN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN DE VIGILAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. A LAS 6 PM CST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.7 OSTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS... 65 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE LIMON HONDURAS Y COMO A 180 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA CUIDAD DE BELIZE. GAMMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...AUNQUE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ENCONTRADOS POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES FUERON DE 45 MPH...70 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA UNA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE BELIZE...OESTE DE CUBA...Y EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN MEXICO CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6 PM CST...16.2 NORTE...85.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 9 PM CST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190008 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 6 PM CST VIERNES 18 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA A MEDIDA QUE SE MUEVE LENTAMENTE SOBRE EL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA DE BELIZE Y PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL BORDE ENTRE BELIZE Y MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA ALLEN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN DE VIGILAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. A LAS 6 PM CST...0000Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.2 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.7 OSTE O COMO A 35 MILLAS... 65 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE LIMON HONDURAS Y COMO A 180 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA CUIDAD DE BELIZE. GAMMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH...6 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...AUNQUE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ENCONTRADOS POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES FUERON DE 45 MPH...70 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA UNA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE BELIZE...OESTE DE CUBA...Y EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN MEXICO CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 6 PM CST...16.2 NORTE...85.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 4 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 9 PM CST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTJP21 RJTD 190000 *** WARNING 190000. WARNING VALID 200000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 980 HPA AT 14.8N 125.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 16.0N 123.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 16.8N 121.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 220000UTC AT 17.0N 118.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 190000UTC 14.8N 125.1E FAIR MOVE W 11KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 200000UTC 16.0N 123.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 210000UTC 16.8N 121.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 220000UTC 17.0N 118.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 190000 UTC 00HR 15.4N 125.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.6N 122.2E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 17.2N 119.6E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 17.2N 116.9E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTAU05 APRF 190102 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S095E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0053UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude five decimal five south [5.5S] Longitude ninety four decimal five east [94.5E] Recent movement south at 8 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 995 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Sustained winds to 40 knots near centre increasing to 50 knots by 20/0000UTC. Within 100 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1200UTC 19 November: 6.7 south 94.7 east 995 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 0000UTC 20 November: 8.0 south 94.5 east 985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 19 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 190102 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S095E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0053UTC 19 NOVEMBER 2005 STORM WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0000UTC Tropical Cyclone Bertie located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude five decimal five south [5.5S] Longitude ninety four decimal five east [94.5E] Recent movement south at 8 knots. Maximum winds 40 knots. Central pressure 995 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Sustained winds to 40 knots near centre increasing to 50 knots by 20/0000UTC. Within 100 nautical miles of centre, extending to within 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants, winds above 34 knots with rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1200UTC 19 November: 6.7 south 94.7 east 995 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. At 0000UTC 20 November: 8.0 south 94.5 east 985 hPa. Winds to 50 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0700 UTC 19 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 190000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 190000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE TO WEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 190300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 023 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 190000Z --- NEAR 15.4N 125.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.4N 125.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 15.7N 123.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.3N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.3N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 18.2N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 19.3N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 20.7N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 060 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 240000Z --- 22.1N 124.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 190300Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 124.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DEVIATION FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS AND INDICATES RECURVATURE OF TS 24W INTO THE LUZON STRAIT IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 190000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190900Z, 191500Z, 192100Z AND 200300Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 190246 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 9 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 ...GAMMA MOVING SLOWLY AWAY FROM THE COAST OF HONDURAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 9 PM CST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST OR ABOUT 45 MILES... 70 KM... NORTH-NORTHWEST OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 175 MILES... 285 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY. GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 9 PM CST POSITION...16.4 N... 85.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 12 AM CST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 3 AM CST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 190247 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0300Z SAT NOV 19 2005 A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.8W AT 19/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.8W AT 19/0300Z AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 85.7W FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.4N 86.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.8N 87.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 20.8N 85.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 75SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 34.0N 70.0W...EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 85.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 190247 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM EST MON NOV 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.4N 86.9W 47 X X X 47 FT PIERCE FL X X X 9 9 18.8N 87.0W 21 6 1 X 28 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 8 8 20.8N 85.6W 1 9 12 1 23 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 3 3 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 4 4 MWCG 193N 814W X X 4 6 10 SAVANNAH GA X X X 2 2 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 6 6 KEY WEST FL X X 1 13 14 MUCF 221N 805W X X 1 11 12 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 12 12 MUSN 216N 826W X X 7 9 16 FT MYERS FL X X X 12 12 MUHA 230N 824W X X 3 13 16 VENICE FL X X X 11 11 MUAN 219N 850W X 2 15 3 20 TAMPA FL X X X 10 10 MMCZ 205N 869W 2 16 6 1 25 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 7 7 MZBZ 175N 883W 25 1 1 X 27 ST MARKS FL X X X 5 5 MGPB 157N 886W 14 1 1 X 16 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 6 6 MHNJ 165N 859W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 5 5 MYSM 241N 745W X X X 2 2 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 4 4 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 7 7 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 7 7 BURAS LA X X X 2 2 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 8 8 GULF 29N 85W X X X 7 7 MMMD 210N 897W X 9 6 1 16 GULF 29N 87W X X X 6 6 MARATHON FL X X X 13 13 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 MIAMI FL X X X 11 11 GULF 28N 91W X X X 2 2 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 10 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM SAT TO 7AM SUN C FROM 7AM SUN TO 7PM SUN D FROM 7PM SUN TO 7PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 190300 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 13 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 9 PM CST VIERNES 18 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...GAMMA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE ALEJANDOSE DE LA COSTA DE HONDURAS... UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA TODA LA COSTA DE BELIZE Y PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL CONTINUA EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL BORDE ENTRE BELIZE Y MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA ALLEN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN DE VIGILAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. A LAS 9 PM CST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.8 OSTE O COMO A 45 MILLAS... 70 KILOMETROS...AL NORTE DE LIMON HONDURAS Y COMO A 175 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA CUIDAD DE BELIZE. GAMMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...AUNQUE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ENCONTRADOS POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES FUERON DE 45 MPH...70 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LEVE ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA UNA 105 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS MAYORMENTE AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE BELIZE...OESTE DE CUBA...Y EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN MEXICO CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 9 PM CST...16.4 NORTE...85.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...45 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 12 AM CST SEGUIDA POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 3 AM CST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT42 KNHC 190308 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005 THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... ON ITS LAST LEG ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST BEFORE 22Z... DID NOT MEASURE ANY WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN HONDURAS SUGGESTED WESTERLY WINDS FARTHER SOUTH... SO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT THAT TIME. MORE RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EDGED NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST AT A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 4 KT. A MID-LEVEL CENTER IS APPARENT IN THE COLDER INFRARED TOPS FARTHER NORTH... WITH THE TILTING LIKELY CAUSED BY THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. ALSO ON ITS LAST LEG... THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE CURVED BANDING IN THE MID-LEVELS ARE ONLY 30 KT... BUT A SHEAR PATTERN USING A MORE SOUTHERN CENTER LOCATION YIELDS A STRONGER ESTIMATE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT MAINLY BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA... BUT IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO DAYS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT... HOWEVER... ON WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF GAMMA BY THAT TIME. MOST OF THEM FORECAST A TRACK THAT SEEMS TOO FAR TO THE WEST OVER YUCATAN AND TOO SLOW... GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW THAT WILL LIKELY DRAG GAMMA MORE NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... WHILE SHEARING THE SYSTEM AND FORCING THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO STAY CLOSER TO THE CONVECTION. THE MODELS OFTEN DO NOT FORECAST THE TRACK WELL FOR SHEARED SYSTEMS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE SHEAR IS POINTED. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS... ONCE THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... KEEPS GAMMA MOVING ALONG WITH THAT SYSTEM EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER. THE WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY GET STRONGER AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREFORE... CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING... AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE GFDL NOW FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND PEAKS AT ABOUT 45 KT. THE SHIPS IS SIMILAR BUT FORECASTS A DECLINE AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL GAMMA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND EVENTUALLY IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.4N 85.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 86.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.8N 87.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.8N 85.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 81.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 34.0N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTPQ20 BABJ 190300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 190300 UTC 00HR 15.2N 124.8E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 360KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H= ** WTNT42 KNHC 190329 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005 ...CLARIFIED WORDING IN SECOND PARAGRAPH... THE AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT... ON ITS LAST LEG ALONG THE NORTH-CENTRAL COAST OF HONDURAS EARLIER THIS EVENING JUST BEFORE 22Z... DID NOT MEASURE ANY WESTERLY WINDS. HOWEVER... SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS IN HONDURAS SUGGESTED WESTERLY WINDS FARTHER SOUTH... SO THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AT THAT TIME. MORE RECENT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS EDGED NORTHWESTWARD OFF THE COAST AT A FORWARD SPEED OF ABOUT 4 KT. A MID-LEVEL CENTER IS APPARENT IN THE COLDER INFRARED TOPS FARTHER NORTH... WITH THE TILTING LIKELY CAUSED BY THE SOUTHERLY WIND SHEAR. ALSO ON ITS LAST LEG... THE AIRCRAFT MEASURED 1500-FT FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 56 KT. 00Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES BASED ON THE CURVED BANDING IN THE MID-LEVELS ARE ONLY 30 KT... BUT A SHEAR PATTERN USING A MORE SOUTHERN CENTER LOCATION YIELDS A STRONGER ESTIMATE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 40 KT MAINLY BASED ON THE EARLIER AIRCRAFT DATA... BUT IT IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH A 2330Z QUIKSCAT PASS. THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE UNANIMOUS IN FORECASTING AN EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO FORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES IN A LITTLE MORE THAN TWO DAYS... IN ASSOCIATION WITH A DEVELOPING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. THE MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT... HOWEVER... ON WHAT WILL BE LEFT OF GAMMA BY THAT TIME. MOST OF THEM FORECAST A TRACK THAT SEEMS TOO FAR TO THE WEST OVER YUCATAN AND TOO SLOW... GIVEN THE SOUTHERLY MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL STEERING FLOW THAT WILL ALSO SHEAR THE SYSTEM AND FORCE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD JUST BEHIND THE CONVECTION DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE MODELS OFTEN DO NOT FORECAST THE TRACK WELL FOR SHEARED SYSTEMS... AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LEANS CLOSER TO THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THE SHEAR IS POINTED. BEYOND ABOUT 48 HOURS... ONCE THE EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM FORMS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S... THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST... LIKE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... KEEPS GAMMA MOVING NORTHEASTWARD ALONG WITH THAT SYSTEM EVEN THOUGH MOST OF THE MODELS ARE MUCH SLOWER IN FORECASTING RECURVATURE. THE WIND SHEAR WILL ONLY GET STRONGER AS THE TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THEREFORE... CONDITIONS DO NOT APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING... AND INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE SEEMS RATHER UNLIKELY IN THIS ENVIRONMENT. THE GFDL NOW FORECASTS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE INTENSITY FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND PEAKS AT ABOUT 45 KT. THE SHIPS IS SIMILAR BUT FORECASTS A DECLINE AFTER 24 HOURS AS THE SHEAR INCREASES. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY... ANTICIPATING THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE SHORT TERM BUT OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE UNTIL GAMMA BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL AND EVENTUALLY IS ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE ATLANTIC. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0300Z 16.4N 85.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 19/1200Z 16.8N 86.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0000Z 17.4N 86.9W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/1200Z 18.8N 87.0W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/0000Z 20.8N 85.6W 45 KT 72HR VT 22/0000Z 25.0N 81.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 23/0000Z 34.0N 70.0W 40 KT...EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 24/0000Z...ABSORBED BY LARGER EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 15.1N 124.8E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 16.0N 122.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 210000UTC 16.8N 121.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 220000UTC 17.0N 118.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 190300 *** WARNING 190300. WARNING VALID 200300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 980 HPA AT 15.1N 124.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 16.0N 122.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 190000 *** T T T STORM WARNING 21 AT 0000 19 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SUFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND POSTIONS AT 200000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 210000 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 15.1N 124.8E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 16.0N 122.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 210000UTC 16.8N 121.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 220000UTC 17.0N 118.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 190300 *** WARNING 190300. WARNING VALID 200300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 980 HPA AT 15.1N 124.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 16.0N 122.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 190000 *** T T T STORM WARNING 21 AT 0000 19 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SUFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND POSTIONS AT 200000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 210000 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT62 KNHC 190358 *** TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1000 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 AT 10 PM CST... 0400Z... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. THE TROPICAL STORM STORM WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD AND IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA TO TULUM. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPQ20 RJTD 190300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 190300UTC 15.1N 124.8E FAIR MOVE W 12KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 200300UTC 16.0N 122.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 210000UTC 16.8N 121.0E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 220000UTC 17.0N 118.4E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 190300 *** WARNING 190300. WARNING VALID 200300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 980 HPA AT 15.1N 124.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200300UTC AT 16.0N 122.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH20 RPMM 190000 *** T T T STORM WARNING 21 AT 0000 19 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SUFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND POSTIONS AT 200000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 210000 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 190000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 21 AT 0000 19 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WASESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINTFOUR NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH-WEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHINTWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO FIVE METERSPER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND POSITIONS AT200000 ONE SIX POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SEVEN EAST AT 210000 ONE EIGHT POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ONE EASTALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 VHHH 190445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY. AT 190300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM BOLAVEN (0523) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE TWO FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (124.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 7 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 180 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 240 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 200300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (122.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 210300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (16.5 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (119.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 220300 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (117.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 190534 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 19.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ANALYSED POSITION : 16.9N 86.0W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 19.11.2005 16.9N 86.0W MODERATE 12UTC 19.11.2005 16.4N 86.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2005 16.6N 86.0W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 16.9N 85.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2005 17.2N 86.1W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2005 17.7N 85.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2005 17.7N 83.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2005 17.0N 81.4W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 23.11.2005 14.7N 79.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 23.11.2005 10.4N 78.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 24.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 190534 ** WTNT32 KNHC 190547 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005 ...GAMMA SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES AWAY FROM THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE AND FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA GRUESA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA GRUESA NORTHWARD TO TULUM. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.7 NORTH... LONGITUDE 86.1 WEST OR ABOUT 155 MILES... 250 KM... EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY AND ABOUT 185 MILES... 295 KM... SOUTHEAST OF PUNTA GRUESA MEXICO. GAMMA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER... SOME ERRATIC MOTION MAY ALSO OCCUR DUE TO WEAK STEERING CURRENTS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 105 MILES... 165 KM MAINLY TO THE NORTH FROM THE CENTER. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM RAINFALL TOTALS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS HONDURAS AND BELIZE LATER TODAY. REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...16.7 N... 86.1 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM EST. FORECASTER STEWART $$