** WTCA31 MHTG 181824Z *** MHTG SIGMET3 VALID 181830/190030 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA ACT AREA TS OBS SATELLITE IMAGERY BTN 15.0N 83.0W 15.0N 89.0W 20.0N 81.0W 20.0N 88.0W FRQ TS CB TPS FL450 MVG WNW INTSF. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 181800UTC 15.1N 127.1E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 191800UTC 15.6N 124.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 201800UTC 16.3N 121.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 211800UTC 16.6N 118.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 181800 *** WARNING 181800. WARNING VALID 191800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 15.1N 127.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.6N 124.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.3N 121.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211800UTC AT 16.6N 118.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 181800 UTC 00HR 15.2N 126.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 123.4E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 16.3N 120.3E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 16.8N 117.6E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTAU05 APRF 181855 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1843UTC 18 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude five decimal three degrees South [5.3S] Longitude ninety four decimal two degrees East [94.2E] Recent movement south at 8 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 1001 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours causing clockwise winds 35/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 19 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 5.6 South 93.7 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 19 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 6.5 South 93.6 East Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 19 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 181855 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1843UTC 18 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude five decimal three degrees South [5.3S] Longitude ninety four decimal two degrees East [94.2E] Recent movement south at 8 knots. Maximum winds 30 knots. Central pressure 1001 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 100 nautical miles of the centre extending to 180 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 hours causing clockwise winds 35/45 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 19 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 5.6 South 93.7 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 35 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 19 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 6.5 South 93.6 East Central pressure 988 hPa. Winds to 45 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 19 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTNT72 KNHC 182033 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 PM EST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1PM EST MON NOV 21 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 17.3N 86.8W 45 X X X 45 W PALM BEACH FL X X X 8 8 18.2N 87.1W 28 2 X X 30 FT PIERCE FL X X X 7 7 20.0N 86.5W 6 11 5 1 23 COCOA BEACH FL X X X 6 6 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 2 2 DAYTONA BEACH FL X X X 5 5 MWCG 193N 814W X X 3 6 9 JACKSONVILLE FL X X X 3 3 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 4 4 KEY WEST FL X X X 12 12 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 10 10 MARCO ISLAND FL X X X 10 10 MUSN 216N 826W X X 4 10 14 FT MYERS FL X X X 10 10 MUHA 230N 824W X X 1 12 13 VENICE FL X X X 10 10 MUAN 219N 850W X 1 11 6 18 TAMPA FL X X X 8 8 MMCZ 205N 869W 2 12 7 2 23 CEDAR KEY FL X X X 6 6 MZBZ 175N 883W 21 3 X 1 25 ST MARKS FL X X X 4 4 MGPB 157N 886W 11 2 1 X 14 APALACHICOLA FL X X X 5 5 MHNJ 165N 859W 99 X X X 99 PANAMA CITY FL X X X 4 4 MNPC 141N 834W X 1 X 1 2 PENSACOLA FL X X X 3 3 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 MOBILE AL X X X 2 2 MYAK 241N 776W X X X 5 5 GULFPORT MS X X X 2 2 MYNN 251N 775W X X X 5 5 BURAS LA X X X 3 3 MYGF 266N 787W X X X 6 6 GULF 29N 85W X X X 6 6 MMFR 185N 926W X 1 1 1 3 GULF 29N 87W X X X 5 5 MMMD 210N 897W X 7 8 2 17 GULF 28N 89W X X X 5 5 MARATHON FL X X X 11 11 GULF 28N 91W X X X 3 3 MIAMI FL X X X 9 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM SAT FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1PM SAT TO 1AM SUN C FROM 1AM SUN TO 1PM SUN D FROM 1PM SUN TO 1PM MON E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1PM MON X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 182033 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN RE-GENERATES...BECOMES TROPICAL STORM GAMMA... AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 3 PM CST...2100Z...THE BROAD AND POORLY DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.4 NORTH... LONGITUDE 85.6 WEST OR ABOUT 40 MILES... 65 KM...NORTH OF LIMON HONDURAS AND ABOUT 190 MILES... 300 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BELIZE CITY BELIZE. GAMMA IS MOVING ERRATICALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH ... 7 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...ALTHOUGH SOME ERRATIC MOTION IS POSSIBLE AS THE CENTER RE-FORMS. REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH... 65 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES...140 KM TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS REPORTED THAT TROPICAL STORM-FORCE WINDS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED IN THE WESTERN BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. TROPICAL STORM GAMMA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES OVER BELIZE...WESTERN CUBA...AND THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NORTHWESTERN HONDURAS. REPEATING THE 4 PM EST POSITION...16.4 N... 85.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 40 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 7 PM EST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 10 PM EST. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 182034 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 2100Z FRI NOV 18 2005 AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE ENTIRE COAST OF BELIZE. THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ALSO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AT 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM THE BELIZE-MEXICO BORDER NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ALLEN. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF GAMMA. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.6W AT 18/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 90NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.6W AT 18/2100Z AT 18/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 85.4W FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 16.8N 86.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 75NE 0SE 0SW 75NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.3N 86.8W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 18.2N 87.1W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 0SE 0SW 25NW. 34 KT... 90NE 35SE 35SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 20.0N 86.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 75SE 40SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 85.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 182043 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 3 PM CST FRI NOV 18 2005 SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT SHOW THAT THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN HAVE REFORMED INTO A BROAD CIRCULATION ELONGATED NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 49 KT AT 1500 FT JUST NORTH OF ROATAN ISLAND...ALONG WITH TWO SPOTS OF 45 KT WINDS NORTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS... ADVISORIES ARE RE-INITIATED ON THIS SYSTEM AS TROPICAL STORM GAMMA WITH 35 KT WINDS. WHILE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE CYCLONE IS SLOWLY GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED...THE CONVECTIVE TOPS NEAR THE CENTER HAVE WARMED DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE CIRRUS OUTFLOW IS GOOD IN THE NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND POOR TO RESTRICTED ELSEWHERE. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A VERY UNCERTAIN 300/04...WITH ADDITIONAL UNCERTAINTY ADDED BY THE ELONGATION OF THE CENTER. GAMMA IS CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN AND A STRONG LOW-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BEHIND A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM SOUTH FLORIDA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS UNANIMOUSLY FORECAST THESE RIDGES TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT 72 HR AS A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...ACCOMPANIED BY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER EITHER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U. S. COAST. THIS PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD TURN GAMMA NORTHWARD AND THEN ACCELERATE NORTHEASTWARD. WHILE THERE IS AGREEMENT ON THE PATTERN...THERE IS LITTLE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON THE TRACK OF GAMMA...AS MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST DISSIPATION IN 72 HR OR LESS. THE GFS AND NOGAPS FORECAST A VERY WEAK GAMMA TO TURN EASTWARD ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN... WHILE THE GFDL BRINGS A STRONGER GAMMA TOWARD SOUTH FLORIDA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK LEANS MORE ON THE GFDL ON THE BASIS THAT IT HAS A STRONGER SYSTEM MORE IN LINE WITH THE INTENSITY FORECAST. HOWEVER...IF GAMMA DOES NOT HOLD TOGETHER AS WELL AS FORECAST THE MOTION COULD BE MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS AND NOGAPS. GAMMA IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT AT THIS TIME. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM CIMSS AT THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN SHOW 15-25 KT OF SHEAR ACROSS THE STORM...AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE SHEAR TO INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER THE NEXT 72 HR. IN ADDITION...GAMMA IS CLOSE TO A FRONTAL ZONE...AND THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONGER AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHES. THE GFDL MODEL CALLS FOR GAMMA TO REACH 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HR...WHILE THE SHIPS MODEL BARELY STRENGTHENS IT DUE TO SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS THE GFDL GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR A 55 KT INTENSITY IN 72 HR... ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR THIS MIGHT BE GENEROUS. AFTER 72 HR...GAMMA SHOULD RAPIDLY LOSE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS AND ITS IDENTITY AS IT IS ABSORBED INTO THE STRONG BAROCLINIC LOW OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC LOW SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO SWEEP INTO THE CARIBBEAN SEA...SO EVEN IF GAMMA TAKES A MORE EASTWARD TRACK AS FORECAST BY THE GFS AND NOGAPS THE FRONT WILL STILL PROBABLY CATCH UP WITH THE STORM. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 18/2100Z 16.4N 85.6W 35 KT 12HR VT 19/0600Z 16.8N 86.1W 40 KT 24HR VT 19/1800Z 17.3N 86.8W 45 KT 36HR VT 20/0600Z 18.2N 87.1W 50 KT 48HR VT 20/1800Z 20.0N 86.5W 55 KT 72HR VT 21/1800Z 25.0N 82.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 22/1800Z 35.0N 71.0W 50 KT...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL 120HR VT 23/1800Z...ABSORBED BY EXTRATROPICAL LOW $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 182100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 022 DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 24W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181800Z --- NEAR 15.2N 126.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 126.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 15.8N 124.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.5N 123.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 17.0N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.6N 121.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 18.2N 120.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 19.3N 118.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231800Z --- 20.6N 117.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 182100Z POSITION NEAR 15.4N 126.0E.TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP CONVECTION. TS 24W IS TRACKING INTO AN INCREASED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS FORECAST REPRESENTS A DEVIATION IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT AND DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A MORE POLEWARD TRACK OF TS 24W IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD AFTER TS 24W TRACKS OVER NORTHERN LUZON. AN INCREASED NUMBER OF DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE BEGINNING TO INDICATE REDUCED WESTWARD BUILDING OF THE STEERING RIDGE BEYOND TAU 72 AND AN INCREASED POSSIBILITY THAT TS 24W MAY GET ABSORBED INTO THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 190300Z, 190900Z, 191500Z AND 192100Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 181800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 20 AT 1800 18 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM(BOLAVEN) (0523) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191800 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST AT 201800 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 211800 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 182132 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 12 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 3 PM CST VIERNES 18 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE SE RE-GENERA...SE CONVIERTE EN LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA... A LAS 3 PM CST...2100 UTC...EL GOBIERNO DE BELIZE A EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA TODA LA COSTA DE BELIZE. EL GOBIERNO DE HONDURAS TAMBIEN HA EMITIDO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LAS ISLAS DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE ESPERAN DENTRO DEL AREA BAJO AVISO DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. A LAS 3 PM CST...2100 UTC..EL GOBIERNO DE MEXICO HA EMITIDO UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN DESDE EL BORDE ENTRE BELIZE Y MEXICO HACIA EL NORTE HASTA PUNTA ALLEN. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SON POSIBLES EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DENTRO DE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. LOS INTERESES EN EL RESTO DEL NOROESTE DEL MAR CARIBE DEBEN DE VIGILAR DE CERCA EL PROGRESO DE GAMMA. A LAS 3 PM CST...2100Z...EL AMPLIO Y POBREMENTE DEFINIDO CENTRO DE LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA ESTABA LOCALIZADA CERCA DE LA LATITUD 16.4 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.6 OSTE O COMO A 40 MILLAS... 65 KM...AL NORTE DE LIMON HONDURAS Y COMO A 190 MILLAS AL ESTE SURESTE DE LA CUIDAD DE BELIZE. GAMMA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...AUNQUE ALGUN MOVIMIENTO ERRATICO ES POSIBLE A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO SE REORGANIZA. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ENCONTRADOS POR UN AVION CAZA HURACANES FUERON DE 40 MPH...65 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ALGUN FORTALECIMIENTO LENTO ES POSIBLE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA FUERA UNA 85 MILLAS...140 KILOMETROS AL NORTE DEL CENTRO. EL GOBIERNO DE HONDURAS HA REPORTADO QUE VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE HAN OBSERVADO EN LAS ISLAS AL OESTE DE LA BAHIA DE HONDURAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. LA TORMENTA TROPICAL GAMMA SE ESPERA QUE PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 6 A 10 PULGADAS SOBRE BELIZE...OESTE DE CUBA...Y EL ESTE DE LA PENINSULA DE YUCATAN EN MEXICO CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 15 PULGADAS. LLUVIA ADICIONAL DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS CON CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE EL NOROESTE DE HONDURAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 PM EST...16.4 NORTE...85.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...40 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. UNA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 7 PM EST SEGUIDO POR LA ADVERTENCIA COMPLETA A LAS 10 PM EST. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTJP31 RJTD 182100 *** WARNING 182100. WARNING VALID 192100. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 15.1N 126.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 192100UTC AT 15.7N 123.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 182100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 182100UTC 15.1N 126.3E FAIR MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 192100UTC 15.7N 123.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 201800UTC 16.3N 121.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 211800UTC 16.6N 118.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT62 KNHC 182211 *** TCUAT2 TROPICAL STORM GAMMA TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 510 PM EST FRI NOV 18 2005 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATES GAMMA A LITTLE STRONGER... ...SHORTLY BEFORE 500 PM EST... 2200Z... DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATED THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS IN TROPICAL STORM GAMMA HAVE INCREASED AND ARE NOW NEAR 45 MPH. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPH RPLL 181800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 20 AT 1800 18 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) DOWN- GRADED FROM TYPHOON WAS ESTIMATED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERYHIGH SEAS WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDSTWO EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONSAT 191800 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO FOUR POINT ZERO EAST AT 201800 ONE SIX POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 211800 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD