** WTSR20 WSSS 180600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 181200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 181200 UTC 00HR 14.9N 127.6E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 90KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 15.1N 124.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.8N 121.2E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 16.5N 118.8E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 181200 *** WARNING 181200. WARNING VALID 191200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 14.9N 127.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 15.5N 124.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 16.2N 121.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 211200UTC AT 16.6N 118.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 181200UTC 14.9N 127.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 191200UTC 15.5N 124.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 201200UTC 16.2N 121.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 211200UTC 16.6N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTAU05 APRF 181258 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S094E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1254UTC 18 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1200UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude four decimal one degrees South [4.1S] Longitude ninety three decimal six degrees East [93.6E] Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1003 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0000UTC 19 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 4.9 South 93.4 East Central pressure 997 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1200UTC 19 November: Within 90 nautical miles of 5.7 South 93.8 East Central pressure 992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1900 UTC 18 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTPN31 PGTW 181500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 021 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 181200Z --- NEAR 14.9N 127.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9N 127.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 15.7N 125.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.4N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.9N 122.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.5N 121.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 17.9N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 17.9N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 231200Z --- 17.6N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 181500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 126.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 370 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 181200Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 182100Z, 190300Z, 190900Z AND 191500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 181200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1200 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SEDOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191200 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST AT 201200 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 211200 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 181200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1200 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SEDOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191200 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST AT 201200 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 211200 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 181200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1200 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SEDOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191200 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST AT 201200 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 211200 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH20 RPMM 181200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1200 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SEDOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191200 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST AT 201200 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 211200 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 181500 *** WARNING 181500. WARNING VALID 191500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 15.1N 127.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191500UTC AT 15.6N 124.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 181500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 181500UTC 15.1N 127.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 191500UTC 15.6N 124.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 201200UTC 16.2N 121.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 211200UTC 16.6N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 181200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 19 AT 1200 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR TWOFIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 191200 ONE FIVE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT THREE EAST AT 201200 ONE FIVE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 211200 ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 181720 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 18.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 16.4N 85.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 18.11.2005 16.4N 85.0W MODERATE 00UTC 19.11.2005 16.4N 85.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2005 16.6N 85.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2005 16.6N 85.9W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 16.5N 85.7W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.11.2005 16.4N 86.2W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 181720