** WTIN20 DEMS 180615 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 18-11-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 180600 UTC 00HR 14.4N 128.3E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.9N 124.6E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 15.2N 120.8E 985HPA 28M/S P+72HR 15.6N 117.8E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180600 *** WARNING 180600. WARNING VALID 190600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 14.3N 128.6E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 14.8N 125.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 15.5N 121.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210600UTC AT 16.4N 119.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 180600UTC 14.3N 128.6E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 190600UTC 14.8N 125.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 200600UTC 15.5N 121.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 210600UTC 16.4N 119.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL ACCELERATE FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 180600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN ANALYSIS POSITION 180600UTC 14.5N 128.3E MOVEMENT NE 5KT PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 190600UTC 15.2N 124.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 60KT 48HR POSITION 200600UTC 15.8N 121.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 210600UTC 16.2N 119.3E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 995HPA 37KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 180900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 020 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180600Z --- NEAR 14.1N 128.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 128.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 14.5N 127.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.9N 125.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.4N 123.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 15.9N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.3N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 16.3N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230600Z --- 16.1N 115.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 180900Z POSITION NEAR 14.2N 128.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180600Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 181500Z, 182100Z, 190300Z AND 190900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 180600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 0600 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGHG SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190600 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST AT 200600 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST AND AT 210600 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 180900 *** WARNING 180900. WARNING VALID 190900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 14.6N 128.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190900UTC AT 15.0N 125.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 180900UTC 14.6N 128.2E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 190900UTC 15.0N 125.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 200600UTC 15.5N 121.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 210600UTC 16.4N 119.1E 220NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 180600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 18 AT 0600 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR TWOFIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CNTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190600 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FIVE EAST AT 200600 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO TWO POINT NINE EAST AND AT 210600 ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO ZERO PINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD