** WTSR20 WSSS 171800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 180000 *** WARNING 180000. WARNING VALID 190000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 13.8N 128.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 14.7N 124.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 15.3N 120.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 210000UTC AT 15.2N 116.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 180000UTC 13.8N 128.0E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 190000UTC 14.7N 124.0E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 200000UTC 15.3N 120.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 210000UTC 15.2N 116.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CDO HAS EXPANDED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 13.8N 128.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 124.0E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 14.9N 120.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 15.3N 117.1E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 180000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 4 FOR STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 180000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CDO HAS EXPANDED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 180000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 180000 UTC 00HR 13.8N 128.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 124.0E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 14.9N 120.7E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 15.3N 117.1E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 180300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 180000Z --- NEAR 13.8N 129.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.8N 129.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 14.1N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 14.5N 126.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 14.9N 124.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 15.2N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 15.6N 120.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 15.8N 118.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 230000Z --- 15.7N 116.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT --- REMARKS: 180300Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 128.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 475 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 180000Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180900Z, 181500Z, 182100Z AND 190300Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 180000 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0000 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIAMATED BASED ON SATELLITE SURFACE AND RADAR DATA AT ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY AT ZERO ONE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH WEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIAMTED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190000 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO EAST AT 200000 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE SEVEN EAST AND AT 210000 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 180300 *** WARNING 180300. WARNING VALID 190300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 14.2N 128.8E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190300UTC AT 14.9N 124.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 180300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 180300UTC 14.2N 128.8E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 190300UTC 14.9N 124.3E 80NM 70% MOVE W 11KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 200000UTC 15.3N 120.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 210000UTC 15.2N 116.7E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 180000 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 17 AT 0000 18 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTMD BASED ON SATELLITE SURFACE AND RADAR DATA AT ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SLOWLY AT ZERO ONE METER PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPSCALS MAX WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE ZEROZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 190000 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT TWO EAST AT 20000 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT SEVEN EAST AND AT 210000 ONE THREEE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONETO ZERO POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD END OF FCST= ** WTNT80 EGRR 180505 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 18.11.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 180505 ** WTAU05 APRF 180542 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S095E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0517UTC 18 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0400UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude three decimal five degrees South [3.5S] Longitude ninety four decimal zero degrees East [94.0E] Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1005 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1600UTC 18 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 4.5 South 93.9 East Central pressure 1000 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0400UTC 19 November: Within 80 nautical miles of 5.1 South 93.9 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 18 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 180542 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S095E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0517UTC 18 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0400UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude three decimal five degrees South [3.5S] Longitude ninety four decimal zero degrees East [94.0E] Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1005 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1600UTC 18 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 4.5 South 93.9 East Central pressure 1000 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0400UTC 19 November: Within 80 nautical miles of 5.1 South 93.9 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 18 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 180542 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S095E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0517UTC 18 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0400UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude three decimal five degrees South [3.5S] Longitude ninety four decimal zero degrees East [94.0E] Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1005 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1600UTC 18 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 4.5 South 93.9 East Central pressure 1000 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0400UTC 19 November: Within 80 nautical miles of 5.1 South 93.9 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 18 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU05 APRF 180542 *** IDW23100 40:3:1:24:05S095E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 0517UTC 18 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 0400UTC tropical low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude three decimal five degrees South [3.5S] Longitude ninety four decimal zero degrees East [94.0E] Recent movement south southwest at 4 knots. Maximum winds 25 knots. Central pressure 1005 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 60 nautical miles of the centre extending to 100 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 1600UTC 18 November: Within 60 nautical miles of 4.5 South 93.9 East Central pressure 1000 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 0400UTC 19 November: Within 80 nautical miles of 5.1 South 93.9 East Central pressure 995 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 1300 UTC 18 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH