** WTJP21 RJTD 171800 *** WARNING 171800. WARNING VALID 181800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 13.7N 128.1E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 14.7N 124.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.4N 121.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201800UTC AT 16.0N 118.2E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 171800UTC 13.7N 128.1E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 181800UTC 14.7N 124.5E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 191800UTC 15.4N 121.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 201800UTC 16.0N 118.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 171800 UTC 00HR 13.6N 128.0E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 124.8E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 14.9N 121.6E 975HPA 33M/S P+72HR 15.3N 118.4E 985HPA 25M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 172100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 018 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 129.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 02 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 129.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 13.7N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 13.9N 126.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 14.2N 124.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 14.5N 122.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 14.8N 120.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 14.9N 116.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221800Z --- 14.5N 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 172100Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 129.2E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 490 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY HAS SHOWN THAT THE LOCATION OF TY 24W IS EAST OF THE PREVIOUS WARNING. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 180300Z, 180900Z, 181500Z AND 182100Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 171800 *** T T T TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 1800 17 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIAMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH WEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIAMTED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ESLEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 181800 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AT 191800 ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 201800 ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 171800 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 16 AT 1800 17 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 181800 ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO EAST AT 191800 ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE EAST AND AT 201800 ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 RJTD 172100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 172100UTC 13.8N 128.0E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 182100UTC 14.7N 124.4E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 191800UTC 15.4N 121.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 201800UTC 16.0N 118.2E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 172100 *** WARNING 172100. WARNING VALID 182100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 13.8N 128.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 182100UTC AT 14.7N 124.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=