** WTSR20 WSSS 170600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 171200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 171200 UTC 00HR 13.1N 128.6E 985HPA 27M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 13.3N 126.7E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 13.9N 123.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 14.4N 119.0E 988HPA 25M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 171200 *** WARNING 171200. WARNING VALID 181200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 13.0N 129.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181200UTC AT 13.8N 126.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191200UTC AT 14.1N 122.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 201200UTC AT 14.3N 117.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 171200UTC 13.0N 129.0E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 181200UTC 13.8N 126.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 191200UTC 14.1N 122.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 201200UTC 14.3N 117.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 171500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 017 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 171200Z --- NEAR 13.2N 128.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.2N 128.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.3N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 13.4N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 13.6N 123.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 13.8N 121.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 14.1N 117.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 211200Z --- 13.8N 114.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 221200Z --- 13.6N 112.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 171500Z POSITION NEAR 13.2N 127.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 171200Z IS 29 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 172100Z, 180300Z, 180900Z AND 181500Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 171200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1200 17 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 181200 ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE EAST AT 191200 ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 201200 ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTJP31 RJTD 171500 *** WARNING 171500. WARNING VALID 181500. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 975 HPA AT 13.4N 128.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 200 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181500UTC AT 13.9N 125.2E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 171500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 171500UTC 13.4N 128.4E FAIR MOVE W 07KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 200NM FORECAST 24HF 181500UTC 13.9N 125.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 191200UTC 14.1N 122.1E 150NM 70% MOVE W 09KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 201200UTC 14.3N 117.3E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH RPLL 171200 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 15 AT 1200 17 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 181200 ONE THREE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT THREE EAST AT 191200 ONE THREE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST AND AT 201200 ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTNT80 EGRR 171758 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 17.11.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ANALYSED POSITION : 12.2N 83.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 17.11.2005 12.2N 83.3W WEAK 00UTC 18.11.2005 13.6N 87.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2005 12.7N 87.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.11.2005 12.5N 87.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2005 12.8N 92.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2005 13.5N 90.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 13.6N 90.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 171758