** WTPQ20 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 170600UTC 13.1N 128.7E FAIR MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 180600UTC 13.6N 127.1E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 190600UTC 14.1N 122.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 200600UTC 14.4N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 170600 *** WARNING 170600. WARNING VALID 180600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 980 HPA AT 13.1N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 13.6N 127.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 14.1N 122.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200600UTC AT 14.4N 118.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 170600 UTC 00HR 13.0N 128.8E 985HPA 27M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 13.7N 126.8E 965HPA 38M/S P+48HR 14.3N 123.0E 970HPA 35M/S P+72HR 15.0N 119.0E 988HPA 25M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE CDO HAS EXPANDED AND CYCLONE WILL STAY IN HIGH SST AREA. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTIN20 DEMS 170700 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS -RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 17-11-2005(.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) MSG OVER ?????????? ** WTKO20 RKSL 170600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN ANALYSIS POSITION 170600UTC 13.0N 129.0E MOVEMENT SSW 2KT PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 180600UTC 13.2N 126.8E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 48HR POSITION 190600UTC 13.7N 122.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 970HPA 68KT 72HR POSITION 200600UTC 13.9N 118.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 54KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 170900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170600Z --- NEAR 13.0N 129.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.0N 129.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 12.7N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 12.4N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 12.2N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 005 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 12.6N 122.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 12.8N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 12.2N 115.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220600Z --- 11.8N 113.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 170900Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 128.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 485 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170600Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z, 172100Z, 180300Z AND 180900Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 170900 *** WARNING 170900. WARNING VALID 180900. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 980 HPA AT 13.0N 128.9E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180900UTC AT 13.7N 126.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 170900UTC 13.0N 128.9E FAIR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 180900UTC 13.7N 126.7E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 190600UTC 14.1N 122.9E 150NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 200600UTC 14.4N 118.8E 220NM 70% MOVE W 10KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 170600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 0600 17 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN)(0523)UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMICIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSE WHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCAL MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE FORECAST POSITION AT 180600 ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AT 190600 ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 200600 ONE THREE POINT NINE NOETH ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 170600 *** TTT TYPHOON WARNING 14 AT 0600 17 NOVEMBER TYPHOON (BOLAVEN) (0523) UPGRADED FROM TROP- ICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST SOUTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO PHENOMENAL SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE SEVEN SIX HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS THREE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS NORTH SEMI-CIRLCE THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS ELSE- WHERE FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180600 ONE THREE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AT 190600 ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT SIX EAST AND AT 200600 ONE THREE POINT NINE NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN TYPHOON AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD