** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTSR20 WSSS 161800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 170000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 170000 UTC 00HR 12.9N 129.2E 985HPA 27M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.4N 127.3E 970HPA 35M/S P+48HR 14.9N 125.0E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 15.8N 122.1E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 170000 *** WARNING 170000. WARNING VALID 180000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 985 HPA AT 13.2N 129.0E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180000UTC AT 13.4N 127.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190000UTC AT 14.3N 124.3E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 200000UTC AT 14.9N 120.9E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) UPGRADED FROM TS ANALYSIS PSTN 170000UTC 13.2N 129.0E FAIR MOVE WSW SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 180000UTC 13.4N 127.6E 80NM 70% MOVE W 06KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 190000UTC 14.3N 124.3E 150NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 200000UTC 14.9N 120.9E 220NM 70% MOVE W 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 170000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR STS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 170000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN ACCELERATE. STS WILL MOVE WEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 170300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 015 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 24W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 170000Z --- NEAR 13.6N 129.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 129.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 13.5N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 13.5N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 13.7N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 09 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 13.9N 123.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 14.7N 119.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 14.6N 117.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 220000Z --- 14.0N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: 170300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 128.9E. TYPHOON (TY) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 480 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 28 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170900Z, 171500Z, 172100Z AND 180300Z.// ** WTJP31 RJTD 170300 *** WARNING 170300. WARNING VALID 180300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 985 HPA AT 13.1N 128.7E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTSOUTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180300UTC AT 13.4N 127.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPH RPLL 170000 *** TTT STORM WARNING 13 AT 0000 17 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.7 NORTH 129.4 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT 02 MPS ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN 450 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 30 MPS NEAR CENTER 25 MPS WITHIN 200 KMS RADIUS 13 MPS WITHIN 450 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 13.1 NORTH 128.3 EAST AT 190000 13.7 NORTH 127.2 EAST AT 200000 15.3 NORTH 125.4 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPH20 RPMM 170000 *** T T T STORM WARNING 13 AT 0000 17 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WITNDS THREE ZERO METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER TWO FIVE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS ONE THREE METER PER SECOND WITHIN FOUR FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 180000 ONE THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 190000 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT TWO EAST AT 200000 ONE FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 170529 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 17.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 14.8N 75.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 17.11.2005 14.8N 75.5W WEAK 12UTC 17.11.2005 15.1N 78.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2005 15.0N 81.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2005 15.0N 84.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 19.11.2005 13.9N 85.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2005 14.7N 85.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2005 13.9N 85.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 14.8N 84.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 170529