** WTNT80 EGRR 161758 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 16.11.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-S ANALYSED POSITION : 14.3N 72.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 16.11.2005 14.3N 72.8W WEAK 00UTC 17.11.2005 14.7N 75.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.11.2005 14.6N 78.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2005 14.0N 81.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2005 13.7N 82.5W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2005 13.7N 83.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2005 14.7N 83.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2005 14.7N 83.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 14.5N 83.4W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2005 13.9N 83.9W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2005 14.0N 84.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2005 13.0N 83.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 22.11.2005 12.8N 83.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 24.9N 52.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 18.11.2005 24.9N 52.8W WEAK 12UTC 18.11.2005 25.6N 57.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2005 23.8N 60.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2005 22.2N 60.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2005 21.3N 60.0W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 161758 ** WTJP21 RJTD 161800 *** WARNING 161800. WARNING VALID 171800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 990 HPA AT 13.6N 129.2E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING SOUTH SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 171800UTC AT 14.4N 128.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 181800UTC AT 14.7N 125.8E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 191800UTC AT 15.7N 123.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 161800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 161800UTC 13.6N 129.2E FAIR MOVE S SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 171800UTC 14.4N 128.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 48HF 181800UTC 14.7N 125.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 191800UTC 15.7N 123.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 161800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 161800 UTC 00HR 13.5N 129.6E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 50KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 14.1N 128.2E 975HPA 33M/S P+48HR 14.7N 126.0E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 15.4N 124.0E 960HPA 40M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 162100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W (BOLAVEN) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 161800Z --- NEAR 13.9N 129.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 280 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.9N 129.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.1N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 14.4N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 14.7N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 15.0N 125.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 15.6N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 15.7N 118.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 211800Z --- 15.5N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT --- REMARKS: TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (BOLAVEN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 515 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 162100Z POSITION NEAR 14.0N 129.6E. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 161800Z IS 26 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND 172100Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 161800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 12 AT 1800 16 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 171800 ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AT 181800 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 191800 ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 161800 *** TTT STORM WARNING 12 AT 1800 16 NOVEMBER SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN)(0523) WAS EASTMD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY HIGHT SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE EIGHT SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAX WINDS TWO SIX METERS PER SECOND NEAR THE CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO LILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 171800 ONE FOUR POINT EIGH NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ONE EAST AT 181800 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT EIGHT EAST AT 191800 ONE SIX POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTJP31 RJTD 162100 *** WARNING 162100. WARNING VALID 172100. STORM WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 990 HPA AT 13.3N 129.3E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING SOUTHSOUTHEAST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 172100UTC AT 14.4N 127.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 162100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 162100UTC 13.3N 129.3E FAIR MOVE SSE SLOWLY PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 172100UTC 14.4N 127.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 45HF 181800UTC 14.7N 125.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 191800UTC 15.7N 123.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT =