** WTIN20 DEMS 160620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 16-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTHEAST BAY OF BENGAL. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTJP21 RJTD 160600 *** WARNING 160600. WARNING VALID 170600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 994 HPA AT 13.9N 129.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING NORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 170600UTC AT 14.4N 129.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 180600UTC AT 15.0N 127.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 190600UTC AT 16.0N 125.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 160600UTC 13.9N 129.4E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 170600UTC 14.4N 129.0E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 180600UTC 15.0N 127.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 190600UTC 16.0N 125.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 160600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 160600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL BE STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 160600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS BOLAVEN 0523 (0523) INITIAL TIME 160600 UTC 00HR 14.1N 129.6E 995HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR N 10KM/H P+24HR 15.2N 129.3E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 16.2N 128.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 16.8N 126.4E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 160600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN ANALYSIS POSITION 160600UTC 13.9N 129.4E MOVEMENT NW 3KT PRES/VMAX 994HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 170600UTC 14.4N 129.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 180600UTC 15.5N 127.5E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 190600UTC 16.1N 125.4E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 980HPA 58KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTNT72 KNHC 160829 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM EST SAT NOV 19 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.8N 75.2W 44 X X X 44 MTCA 183N 738W 4 X X X 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 1AM THU TO 1PM THU C FROM 1PM THU TO 1AM FRI D FROM 1AM FRI TO 1AM SAT E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM SAT X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 160829 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005 ...POORLY-DEFINED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD OVER THE CARIBBEAN...APPEARS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE SOON... AT 4 AM EST...0900Z...THE ILL-DEFINED CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 71.4 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TODAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH... 45 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION MAY NO LONGER HAVE A CLOSED CIRCULATION... AND...IF THIS IS CONFIRMED LATER TODAY...ADVISORIES WILL BE DISCONTINUED. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 4 AM EST POSITION...14.8 N... 71.4 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 30 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 10 AM EST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 160829 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0900Z WED NOV 16 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 71.4W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 90 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 71.4W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 70.8W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.8N 73.2W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.8N 75.2W...DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 71.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 160830 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST WED NOV 16 2005 THERE IS NO REAL EVIDENCE THAT A SURFACE CENTER STILL EXISTS. NO WESTERLY COMPONENT OF LOW CLOUD MOTION CAN BE DISCERNED ON NIGHTTIME INFRARED CHANNEL IMAGES...AND AN EARLIER QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITY PLOT WAS NOT AT ALL CONVINCING. WE WILL WAIT FOR VISIBLE IMAGERY AND ADDITIONAL DATA TO CONFIRM THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS DISSIPATED. IT APPEARS THAT THE DEPRESSION...OR ITS REMNANT...IS ABOUT TO BE DRAWN INTO A MORE DOMINANT LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. INDEED...THIS LATTER SYSTEM IS THE MORE IMPRESSIVE-LOOKING FEATURE AT THIS TIME. ADDITIONALLY...THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE MAY DISRUPT THE SMALLER AND WEAKER UPPER ANTICYCLONE UNDER WHICH THE DEPRESSION WAS EXPECTED TO MOVE. IF THIS IS THE CASE...THEN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WOULD NOT BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION...OR REGENERATION. SATELLITE FIXES ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE...WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING GIVEN THE SEEMING ABSENCE OF A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. INITIAL MOTION IS BASED ON CONTINUITY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. EASTERLIES TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW-LEVEL RIDGE SHOULD CONTINUE TO PUSH THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WESTWARD FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0900Z 14.8N 71.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 16/1800Z 14.8N 73.2W 25 KT 24HR VT 17/0600Z 14.8N 75.2W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 160834 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM AST MIERCOLES 16 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE SEBRE EL CARIBE...PUDIERA DISIPARSE PRONTO... A LAS 4 AM EST...0900Z...EL CENTRO POCO DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 71.4 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS...440 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION HA PERDIDO CASI SU CIRCULACION CERRADA...Y SI ESTA INFORMACION DE CONFIRMA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY...LAS ADVERTENCIAS SERAN DESCONTINUADAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM EST...14.8 NORTE...71.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTCA42 TJSJ 160834 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 10 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 4 AM AST MIERCOLES 16 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA CONTINUA MOVIENDOSE HACIA EL OESTE SOBRE EL CARIBE...PUDIERA DISIPARSE PRONTO... A LAS 4 AM EST...0900Z...EL CENTRO POCO DEFINIDO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 71.4 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS...440 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION HA PERDIDO CASI SU CIRCULACION CERRADA...Y SI ESTA INFORMACION DE CONFIRMA MAS TARDE EN EL DIA DE HOY...LAS ADVERTENCIAS SERAN DESCONTINUADAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 4 AM EST...14.8 NORTE...71.4 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 10 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPN31 PGTW 160900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160600Z --- NEAR 14.4N 130.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 130.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.9N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 15.3N 129.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 15.7N 128.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 16.0N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 16.3N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.6N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210600Z --- 16.8N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT --- REMARKS: 160900Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 130.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 161500Z, 162100Z, 170300Z AND 170900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 160600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 0600 16 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN) (0523) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170600 ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 180600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SEVEN EAST AT 190600 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0523 BOLAVEN (0523) ANALYSIS PSTN 160900UTC 14.0N 129.2E FAIR MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 170900UTC 14.5N 128.8E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 180600UTC 15.0N 127.7E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 190600UTC 16.0N 125.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT = ** WTPH RPMM 160600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 10 AT 0600 16 NOVEMBER , TROPICAL STORM (BOLAVEN) ( 0523 ) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FOUR POINT FOURNORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ZERO TWO METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE ONE HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN THREE ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170600 ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 180600 ONE SIX POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO SIX POINT SEVEN EAST AT 190600 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TOP SEND THREE - HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD