** WTSR20 WSSS 151800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 160000UTC 13.6N 129.8E POOR MOVE S SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 170000UTC 14.3N 130.0E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 160300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 160000Z --- NEAR 14.1N 130.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.1N 130.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 15.1N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.6N 130.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 16.1N 129.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.5N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.8N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.9N 125.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 210000Z --- 17.0N 122.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 160300Z POSITION NEAR 14.4N 130.6E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 160000Z IS 22 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160900Z, 161500Z, 162100Z AND 170300Z.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 160231 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 IT IS IMPOSSIBLE TO LOCATE THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION WITH CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...SO THE ADVISORY POSITION AND MOTION ARE BASED ON CONTINUITY OF THE EARLIER TRACK. AN SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS AT 0030Z HINTS THAT THE CENTER MAY BE RACING MORE QUICKLY AWAY FROM THE CONVECTION THOUGH...AND IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THE DEPRESSION IS ON A FAST TRACK TO DISSIPATION. QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES JUST IN A FEW MOMENTS AGO ALLOW FOR THE POSSIBILITY THAT A CIRCULATION IS STILL PRESENT...BUT JUST BARELY. THE CONSENSUS OF THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES REMAINS BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE GFS AND UW/CIMSS INDICATE THERE IS STILL ABOUT 25 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION...AND IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THE CIRCULATION WILL DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SHOULD IT SURVIVE...THE DEPRESSION WILL FIND ITSELF UNDER AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IN THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT NOW BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL INTENSITY GUIDANCE...ALTHOUGH NEITHER MODEL NOW BRINGS THE SYSTEM TO HURRICANE STRENGTH. NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MAJOR TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SWEEP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...AND THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AFTER THAT...STEERING CURRENTS ARE EXPECTED TO WEAKEN WITH THE APRROACH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH...AND MUCH OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE CYCLONE WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD OR EVEN NORTHEASTWARD BY DAY 5. A COMPLICATION IS THE BROAD AND PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN. IF THIS LOW BECOMES THE DOMINANT CIRCULATION...THE DEPRESSION OR ITS REMNANTS WOULD LIKELY CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS IS THE SOLUTION OFFERED BY THE GFS...WHICH HAS NEVER THOUGHT HIGHLY OF THE DEPRESSION AND SO FAR HAS BEEN RIGHT. HOWEVER...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL PRESUME THAT THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES AND IS A DEEP ENOUGH SYSTEM BY DAY 4 TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH IN THE GULF. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/0300Z 14.9N 70.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/1200Z 15.0N 72.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 17/0000Z 15.1N 74.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 17/1200Z 15.3N 76.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 78.5W 50 KT 72HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 81.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 20/0000Z 16.0N 81.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 21/0000Z 16.5N 81.5W 55 KT $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 160232 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0300Z WED NOV 16 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 70.2W AT 16/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 70.2W AT 16/0300Z AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.6W FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.0N 72.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.1N 74.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.3N 76.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 50SE 50SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 16.0N 81.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 70.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 160238 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST OR ABOUT 250 MILES... 400 KM... SOUTH OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 14 MPH ...22 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION HAS ALMOST LOST ITS CLOSED CIRCULATION...AND COULD DISSIPATE ON WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOULD THE DEPRESSION MAINTAIN ITS CIRCULATION...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT IN ANOTHER DAY OR TWO. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...14.9 N... 70.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 14 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 160238 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 9 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 70.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST FRI NOV 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.1N 74.2W 44 X X X 44 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 4 4 15.3N 76.5W 11 21 X X 32 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 6 6 15.5N 78.5W X 18 7 1 26 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 2 2 MDCB 176N 714W 7 X X X 7 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 3 3 MTPP 186N 724W 2 1 1 X 4 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 3 3 MTCA 183N 738W 6 7 X X 13 MZBZ 175N 883W X X X 2 2 MKJP 179N 768W X 16 5 1 22 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 7 7 MKJS 185N 779W X 5 11 3 19 MNPC 141N 834W X X 1 10 11 MWCG 193N 814W X X 3 11 14 MNBL 120N 839W X X X 4 4 MUGM 200N 751W X 1 2 2 5 SKSP 126N 817W X X 2 8 10 MUCM 214N 779W X X 1 3 4 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU C FROM 8AM THU TO 8PM THU D FROM 8PM THU TO 8PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 160243 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MARTES 15 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA... A LAS 11 PM EST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.9 NORTE... LONGITUD 70.2 OESTE O COMO A 250 MILLAS...400 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 14 MPH...22 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION HA PERDIDO CASI SU CIRCULACION CERRADA...Y PODRIA DISIPARSE EL MIERCOLES. SIN EMBARGO...SI LA DEPRESION MANTIENE SU CIRCULACION...LAS CONDICIONES PODRIAN TORNARSE MAS FAVORABLES PARA DESARROLLO EN UN DIA O DOS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...EL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y POSIBLEMENTE SOBRE ARUBA...BONAIRE...Y CURACAO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EST...14.9 NORTE...70.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 14 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH RPLL 160000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 09 AT 0000 16 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.8N 130.1E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 21MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170000 15.6N 130.3E AT 180000 16.4N 130.4E AT 190000 17.2N 129.7E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPH20 RPMM 160000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 09 AT 0000 16 NOVEMBER , TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ONE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE FOUR HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO ONE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 170000 ONE FIVE POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE EAST AT 180000 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT FOUR EAST AT 190000 ONE SEVEN POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SEVEN EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 160300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 160300UTC 13.7N 129.6E POOR MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 170300UTC 14.4N 129.8E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTNT80 EGRR 160525 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 16.11.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 69.4W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 16.11.2005 14.8N 69.4W WEAK 12UTC 16.11.2005 14.7N 72.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2005 14.7N 74.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.11.2005 14.7N 77.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 18.11.2005 14.7N 79.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 18.11.2005 14.8N 80.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2005 15.4N 81.4W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2005 16.0N 81.2W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 20.11.2005 16.6N 80.7W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 20.11.2005 16.5N 80.2W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2005 16.2N 79.9W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 21.11.2005 15.6N 79.7W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 22.11.2005 15.6N 78.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 160525