** WTNT80 EGRR 151813 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 15.11.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.8N 66.8W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 15.11.2005 14.8N 66.8W MODERATE 00UTC 16.11.2005 14.7N 69.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.11.2005 14.2N 70.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2005 14.0N 72.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.11.2005 14.6N 74.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2005 14.8N 77.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2005 15.0N 79.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 19.11.2005 15.0N 80.6W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 19.11.2005 15.2N 80.8W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2005 15.4N 80.5W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 15.6N 80.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 21.11.2005 15.9N 80.8W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 21.11.2005 15.8N 80.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 151813 ** WTPQ20 RJTD 151800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 151800UTC 13.9N 129.8E POOR MOVE N 13KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 161800UTC 15.0N 130.0E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 152100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151800Z --- NEAR 13.6N 131.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 015 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.6N 131.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.9N 131.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.6N 130.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.0N 130.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 03 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 16.3N 129.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 16.7N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 16.9N 125.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201800Z --- 17.0N 122.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 152100Z POSITION NEAR 13.9N 131.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151800Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 160300Z, 160900Z, 161500Z AND 162100Z.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 152054 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 2100Z TUE NOV 15 2005 INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.0W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 69.0W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 14.9N 70.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.0N 73.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 15.2N 75.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.4N 77.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 81.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 16.0N 82.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 16.5N 82.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 69.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 152055 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005 ...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FINDS DEPRESSION STILL DISORGANIZED... INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST OR ABOUT 265 MILES... 420 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SANTO DOMINGO IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 13 MPH... 20 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT WAS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... NORTHERN VENEZUELA... AND POSSIBLY OVER ARUBA... BONAIRE... AND CURACAO. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.8 N... 69.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 152055 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST TUE NOV 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.0 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST FRI NOV 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.0N 73.0W 44 X X X 44 MUCM 214N 779W X X 2 4 6 15.2N 75.2W 12 20 X X 32 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 5 5 15.4N 77.5W X 15 11 1 27 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 7 7 MDCB 176N 714W 15 1 X X 16 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 3 3 MTPP 186N 724W 3 5 X 1 9 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 3 3 MTCA 183N 738W 2 13 1 X 16 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 3 3 MKJP 179N 768W X 11 12 1 24 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 6 6 MKJS 185N 779W X 2 15 3 20 MNPC 141N 834W X X X 10 10 MWCG 193N 814W X X 2 13 15 MNBL 120N 839W X X X 3 3 MUGM 200N 751W X 2 4 1 7 SKSP 126N 817W X X 1 8 9 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM WED TO 2AM THU C FROM 2AM THU TO 2PM THU D FROM 2PM THU TO 2PM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 152100 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT CONFIRMS WHAT THE SATELLITE IMAGERY HAS BEEN INDICATING TODAY... THAT THE DEPRESSION REMAINS QUITE POORLY ORGANIZED. THE CIRCULATION IS ELONGATED WEST-SOUTHWEST TO EAST-NORTHEAST... WITH ONLY VERY WEAK WESTERLY WINDS ON THE SOUTHWESTERN SIDE AND A BROAD AREA OF WEAK WINDS AROUND THE ESTIMATED CENTER LOCATION. THE LOWEST PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN 1006 MB. EVEN THOUGH THE CIRCULATION IS A BIT SLOPPY... SOME DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CLOSE BY... BUT ONLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR. PERHAPS GENEROUSLY... THE SYSTEM REMAINS A DEPRESSION WITH 30 KT WINDS... BASED ON FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS OF 41 KT... A FEW SHIP REPORTS OF ABOUT 30 KT IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT... AND DVORAK SATELLITE ESTIMATES. THE CIRCULATION CENTER IS MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 11 KT. THE TRACK FORECAST REMAINS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. AFTER THAT... THERE ARE SEVERAL FACTORS COMPLICATING THE TRACK FORECAST. DYNAMICAL MODELS AGREE THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN AND CAUSE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE SLOWLY ON DAYS 3-5. HOWEVER... EACH MODEL FORECASTS A DIFFERENT EVOLUTION OF THE BROAD LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN... AND EACH SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES BY THAT TIME... BUT WITH VARYING STRENGTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL MOST LIKELY BECOME EMBEDDED WITHIN WEAK STEERING CURRENTS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES... ALTHOUGH ONE COULD END UP HAVING MORE INFLUENCE THAN THE OTHER. MOST OF THE MODELS FAVOR A SLOW NORTHWARD COMPONENT TO THE MOTION ON DAYS 4 AND 5. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS SCENARIO AND IS FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS... THEN SIMILARLY SLOW THEREAFTER. ALTHOUGH THE SYSTEM IS BARELY HANGING ON TO TROPICAL CYCLONE STATUS... ITS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE CYCLONE SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO OF CONTINUED WESTERLY SHEAR... THE DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WILL CREATE A WEAKER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A TROPICAL STORM TO DEVELOP IN 24-36 HOURS AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS GUIDANCE. SHIPS PEAKS AT 55 KT IN ABOUT 72 HOURS... WHILE THE GFDL PEAKS AT 77 KT A LITTLE LATER. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN BETWEEN AND STILL ANTICIPATES DEVELOPMENT INTO A HURRICANE... ALTHOUGH A WEAKENING TREND IS NOW INTRODUCED AT THE END OF THE FORECAST IN ANTICIPATION OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/2100Z 14.8N 69.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0600Z 14.9N 70.7W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/1800Z 15.0N 73.0W 35 KT 36HR VT 17/0600Z 15.2N 75.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/1800Z 15.4N 77.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 81.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 19/1800Z 16.0N 82.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1800Z 16.5N 82.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 151800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 08 AT 1800 15 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161800 ONE SIX POINT FOUR NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST AT 171800 ONE EIGHT POINT THREE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT EIGHT EAST AT 181800 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE FOUR POINT THEE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTCA42 TJSJ 152126 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 8 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MARTES 15 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...AVION CAZAHURACANES ENCUENTRA LA DEPRESION AUN DESORGANIZADA... LOS INTERESES A TRAVES DEL CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS SOBRE AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.8 NORTE... LONGITUD 69.0 OESTE O COMO A 265 MILLAS...420 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SURESTE DE SANTO DOMINGO EN LA REPUBLICA DOMINICANA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 13 MPH...20 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE UN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...EL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y POSIBLEMENTE SOBRE ARUBA...BONAIRE...Y CURACAO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EST...14.8 NORTE...69.0 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 13 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH RPLL 151800 *** TTT GALE WARNING 08 AT 1800 15 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 13.5N 130.0E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 18MPS NEAR CENTER 13MPS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161800 16.4N 131.2E AT 171800 18.3N 132.8E AT 181800 20.0N 134.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 152100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 152100UTC 14.1N 130.1E POOR MOVE N 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 162100UTC 15.1N 130.1E 150NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 994HPA MXWD 035KT =