** WTSR20 WSSS 150600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTNT22 KNHC 151450 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 1500Z TUE NOV 15 2005 INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 67.5W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 67.5W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 67.0W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 14.3N 69.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.5N 71.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.7N 73.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.8N 75.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 45SE 45SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.0N 81.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 15.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 67.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 151451 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE NOV 15 2005 ...DEPRESSION STILL POORLY ORGANIZED AS IT MOVES WESTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN... INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST OR ABOUT 305 MILES... 490 KM... SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 12 MPH... 19 KM/HR... AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS ON ITS WAY TO THE DEPRESSION AND WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL DATA ON THE INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... NORTHERN VENEZUELA... AND POSSIBLY OVER ARUBA... BONAIRE... AND CURACAO. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 67.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 151452 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST TUE NOV 15 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 67.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST FRI NOV 18 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.5N 71.1W 45 X X X 45 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 11 11 14.7N 73.2W 12 20 1 X 33 MUGM 200N 751W X X 5 4 9 14.8N 75.3W X 17 9 1 27 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 6 6 SKPG 125N 717W 13 3 X 1 17 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 4 4 MDSD 185N 697W 1 1 X X 2 MUSN 216N 826W X X X 4 4 MDCB 176N 714W 5 11 X X 16 MUHA 230N 824W X X X 2 2 MTPP 186N 724W X 8 2 1 11 MHNJ 165N 859W X X X 2 2 MTCA 183N 738W X 9 6 2 17 MNPC 141N 834W X X X 5 5 MKJP 179N 768W X 1 14 5 20 SKSP 126N 817W X X X 6 6 MKJS 185N 779W X X 8 9 17 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM WED FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED C FROM 8PM WED TO 8AM THU D FROM 8AM THU TO 8AM FRI E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM FRI X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN31 PGTW 151500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 151200Z --- NEAR 12.3N 130.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 025 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 12.3N 130.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 13.9N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.7N 131.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.1N 130.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 15.6N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 16.3N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 07 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 16.6N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 201200Z --- 17.1N 121.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 151500Z POSITION NEAR 12.7N 130.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 565 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTH- EASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 151200Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 152100Z, 160300Z, 160900Z AND 161500Z.// ** WTNT42 KNHC 151459 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST TUE NOV 15 2005 THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF INFRARED AND VISIBLE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN MOVING NEARLY DUE WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 KT... AS A SHALLOW SYSTEM EMBEDDED IN THE LOW LEVEL EASTERLIES. CONVECTION NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN INTERMITTENT SINCE ABOUT 06Z... AND MORE RECENTLY A LIMITED AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS BEEN FORMING NORTH OF THE CENTER. 12Z DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES VARY FROM 30 TO 35 KT DEPENDING ON THE CENTER LOCATION... BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF ORGANIZATION OF THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN SINCE THEN... THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT. THIS IS ALSO CONSISTENT WITH AN ESTIMATE OF 30 KT AND 1005 MB FROM AN EARLIER AMSU OVERPASS AT ABOUT 07Z... AND WITH A QUIKSCAT OVERPASS AT ABOUT 1030Z. AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE IN THE SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD THROUGH ABOUT 72 HOURS... AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN ATLANTIC AND CONTINUE TO DRIVE THE CYCLONE WESTWARD. ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THIS RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY DAYS 4 AND 5... WHICH WILL SLOW DOWN THE CYCLONE... ALTHOUGH IT COULD START EDGING NORTHWARD DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH OF A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THAT TIME. WHILE THE DETAILS IN THE VARIOUS MODEL TRACKS VARY... THEY ALL SHOW VERY SLOW MOTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD... AS DOES THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THIS WOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY PERIOD. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA APPEARS TO GRADUALLY BE ON THE DECLINE... AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEVELOP OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS STARTING TO MATERIALIZE. AS THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WESTWARD... THE SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE AND... COMBINED WITH THE WARM WATERS OF ABOUT 29C... PROVIDE AN ENVIRONMENT MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IF THE DEPRESSION CAN SURVIVE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO... IT COULD THEREAFTER STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL STORM AS FORECAST BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR NOW REMAINS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN FORECASTING LIMITED STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST TWO DAYS... WITH A MORE STEADY INCREASE THEREAFTER. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 14.2N 67.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 14.3N 69.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 14.5N 71.1W 35 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 14.7N 73.2W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.8N 75.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.0N 79.0W 55 KT 96HR VT 19/1200Z 15.0N 81.0W 65 KT 120HR VT 20/1200Z 15.5N 81.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 151502 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 7 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MARTES 15 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION PERMANECE POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA A MEDIDA SE MUEVE AL OESTE HACIA EL CARIBE CENTRAL... LOS INTERESES A TRAVES DEL CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 67.5 OESTE O COMO A 305 MILLAS...490 KILOMETROS...AL SUR SUROESTE DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE CERCA DE 12 MPH...19 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE UN FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. UN AVION DE RECONOCIMIENTO ESTA EN RUTA HACIA LA DEPRESION Y PROVEERA INFORMACION ADICIONAL EN LA INTENSIDAD ESTA TARDE. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS DE LLUVIA SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...EL NORTE DE VENEZUELA...Y POSIBLEMENTE SOBRE ARUBA...BONAIRE...Y CURACAO. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 AM EST...14.2 NORTE...67.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE A CERCA DE 12 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 PM EST. PRONOSTICADOR KNABB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH RPLL 151200 *** TTT WARNING 07 AT 1200 15 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL STORM WAS EASTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECON ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161200 ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SIX EAST AT 171200 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 181200 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPH20 RPMM 151200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 07 AT 1200 15 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE TWO POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT ZERO EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHEAST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 161200 ONE FOUR POINT TWO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT SIX EAST AT 171200 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT FIVE EAST AT 181200 ONE SEVEN POINT NINE NORTH ONE THREE TWO POINT EIGHT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA=