** WTSR20 WSSS 141800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN31 PGTW 150300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 007 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 150000Z --- NEAR 10.6N 129.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 010 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 129.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 11.5N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 12.6N 130.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 13.8N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.0N 130.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 180000Z --- 16.2N 128.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 190000Z --- 16.4N 126.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200000Z --- 16.4N 123.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 150300Z POSITION NEAR 10.8N 129.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 560 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150000Z IS 18 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150900Z, 151500Z, 152100Z AND 160300Z.// ** WTNT22 KNHC 150237 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0300Z TUE NOV 15 2005 INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 72.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 150237 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 THE DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED THIS EVENING...WITH THE DEEPEST CONVECTION LOCATED OVER 120 N MI TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH WAS DEPICTED NICELY IN AN SSMIS OVERPASS AT 0043Z. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND SHIP V7CY9 REPORTED 29 KT NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER AT 20Z. BASED ON THESE DATA...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/8. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE TO THE BASIC FORECAST THINKING. A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED EAST OF FLORIDA IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A MOSTLY WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 72 HOURS...HOWEVER...THIS RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS AND THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED LATE IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD AMONG THE BAM MODELS...REFLECTING THE WESTERLY SHEAR THAT CURRENTLY DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN...AND THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE CYCLONE WILL BE DETERMINED IN PART BY HOW MUCH CONVECTION IS MAINTAINED NEAR THE CENTER. AT THE MOMENT...THE CENTER IS A SHALLOW FEATURE MOVING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND MEDIUM BAM GUIDANCE. WATER-VAPOR IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE WESTERLY SHEAR IS DECREASING...AND THIS IS ALSO INDICATED BY THE LATEST SHEAR TENDENCY ANALYSIS FROM UW/CIMSS. INDEED...OVER THE PAST HOUR OR TWO THERE HAS BEEN SOME REDEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. IF THE DEPRESSION SURVIVES THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO IT SHOULD THEREFORE HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THAT WOULD PROVIDE A VERY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING IN 2-3 DAYS. ON THE OTHER HAND...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE SHOWS VERY LITTLE DEVELOPMENT AND THE GFS SAYS THE DEPRESSION WILL DISSIPATE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ASSUMES THAT THE DEPRESSION WILL SURVIVE THE PRESENTLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CONTINUES TO ANTICIPATE THAT THERE WILL BE A HURRICANE IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN BY THE END OF THE WEEK. FORECASTER FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 14.5N 65.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 15.3N 68.3W 35 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 15.5N 70.5W 40 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 15.5N 72.7W 45 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 15.5N 76.5W 50 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 15.5N 79.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 15.5N 81.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 150237 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005 ...POORLY ORGANIZED DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST OR ABOUT 275 MILES... 440 KM... SOUTH OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH ...15 KM/HR. A TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. MOST OF THE RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION IS OCCURRING IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CIRCULATION. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 11 PM AST POSITION...14.5 N... 65.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 AM AST. FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 150237 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0300Z TUE NOV 15 2005 INTERESTS THROUGHOUT THE CARIBBEAN SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 65.3W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.0N 66.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 68.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.5N 70.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 15.5N 72.7W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.5N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.5N 79.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 15.5N 81.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 65.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 150238 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM AST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM AST THU NOV 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.3N 68.3W 49 X X X 49 MKJS 185N 779W X X 1 14 15 15.5N 70.5W 16 21 X X 37 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 4 4 15.5N 72.7W X 18 10 1 29 MUGM 200N 751W X X 4 9 13 SKPG 125N 717W X 3 4 3 10 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 7 7 TNCC 122N 690W 1 1 1 X 3 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 2 2 TJPS 180N 666W 9 1 X X 10 TJSJ 184N 661W 2 X X X 2 MDSD 185N 697W 2 15 1 X 18 MDPP 198N 707W X 3 5 1 9 MDCB 176N 714W X 25 3 X 28 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 1 2 MTPP 186N 724W X 7 12 1 20 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2 MTCA 183N 738W X 2 16 4 22 SAN JUAN PR 2 X X X 2 MKJP 179N 768W X X 4 14 18 PONCE PR 9 1 X X 10 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED C FROM 8AM WED TO 8PM WED D FROM 8PM WED TO 8PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER FRANKLIN $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 150251 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 5 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM AST LUNES 14 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION POBREMENTE ORGANIZADA CONTINUA HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE... LOS INTERESES A TRAVES DEL CARIBE DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 11 PM EST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.5 NORTE... LONGITUD 65.3 OESTE O COMO A 275 MILLAS...440 KILOMETROS...AL SUR DE SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN GIRO HACIA EL OESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1004 MILIBARAS...29.65 PULGADAS. LA MAYOR PARTE DE LA LLUVIA ASOCIADA CON LA DEPRESION ESTA OCURRIENDO EN LA MITAD ESTE DE LA CIRCULACION. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...Y DE 1 A 3 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. PODRIAN SER POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS ALTOS DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EST...14.5 NORTE...65.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1004 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 5 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR FRANKLIN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH20 RPMM 150000 *** T T T WARNING 05 AT 0000 15 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH SLOWLY MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 160000 ONE ONE POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST AT 170000 ONE TWO POINT FOUR NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 180000 ONE THREE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 150500 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 15.11.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ANALYSED POSITION : 14.1N 65.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 15.11.2005 14.1N 65.1W MODERATE 12UTC 15.11.2005 14.2N 66.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.11.2005 14.4N 68.6W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.11.2005 14.3N 70.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 71.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 17.11.2005 14.0N 72.8W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2005 14.3N 74.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 75.6W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.11.2005 15.0N 76.8W INTENSE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2005 15.7N 77.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 20.11.2005 16.2N 77.3W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 16.8N 78.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY 00UTC 21.11.2005 17.5N 79.0W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 150500