** WTPN31 PGTW 142100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141800Z --- NEAR 10.6N 128.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 055 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 10.6N 128.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 12.0N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.4N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.6N 129.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 15.5N 129.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171800Z --- 17.0N 128.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181800Z --- 17.6N 126.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191800Z --- 17.7N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 142100Z POSITION NEAR 10.9N 128.9E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141800Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 150300Z, 150900Z, 151500Z AND 152100Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 142046 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005 ...DEPRESSION REMAINS DISORGANIZED OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH... LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST OR ABOUT 235 MILES... 380 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH... 13 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON TUESDAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 5 PM AST POSITION...14.2 N... 64.5 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 142048 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 2100Z MON NOV 14 2005 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.5W AT 14/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 64.5W AT 14/2100Z AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 64.1W FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 14.6N 65.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.1N 67.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.4N 69.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 15.5N 71.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N 78.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.5N 80.5W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 64.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 142048 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM AST MON NOV 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM AST...2100Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 64.5 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM AST THU NOV 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.1N 67.5W 49 X X X 49 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 12 12 15.4N 69.4W 18 17 1 X 36 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 2 2 15.5N 71.3W X 21 6 1 28 MUGM 200N 751W X X 2 12 14 SKPG 125N 717W X 2 6 6 14 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 7 7 TNCC 122N 690W 1 4 3 1 9 MUCF 221N 805W X X X 2 2 80400 157N 636W 12 X X X 12 TJSJ 184N 661W 2 3 X X 5 TISX 177N 648W 2 X X X 2 MDPP 198N 707W X 2 8 2 12 TJPS 180N 666W 7 5 X 1 13 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 4 5 MDSD 185N 697W X 14 4 1 19 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 4 4 MDCB 176N 714W X 14 10 1 25 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 3 3 MTPP 186N 724W X 2 15 3 20 ST CROIX VI 2 X X X 2 MTCA 183N 738W X X 12 8 20 SAN JUAN PR 2 3 X X 5 MKJP 179N 768W X X 1 14 15 PONCE PR 7 5 X 1 13 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED C FROM 2AM WED TO 2PM WED D FROM 2PM WED TO 2PM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 142053 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 PM EST MON NOV 14 2005 THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE DEPRESSION HAS DETERIORATED SINCE THIS MORNING. THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED AND MORE CLEARLY DISCERNIBLE. DEEP CONVECTION PERSISTS BUT ONLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION DUE TO CONTINUING WESTERLY SHEAR. ESTIMATING THE INTENSITY VIA SATELLITE IMAGERY IS HIGHLY SENSITIVE TO THE CENTER POSITION... BUT THE DISTANCE OF THE EXPOSED SWIRL FROM THE CONVECTION PROVIDES CONFIDENCE THAT THE CYCLONE REMAINS A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 18Z DVORAK T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0... AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 290/7. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST THROUGHOUT THE FIVE DAY FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC... ALTHOUGH IT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN BEYOND DAY THREE AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. THIS PATTERN SHOULD FORCE THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK... BUT LIKELY SLOW ENOUGH FOR IT TO STILL BE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA IN FIVE DAYS. SOME DISAGREEMENT REMAINS ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE... DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN HOW STRONG THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME. THE GFDL AND NOGAPS DEPICT A DEEPER SYSTEM AND ARE ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE... WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET HAVE A WEAKER SYSTEM FARTHER SOUTH. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECASTS MAKE THE ASSUMPTION THAT THE CYCLONE WILL SURVIVE THE SHEAR THAT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE ENVIRONMENT COULD THEREAFTER BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. IN PARTICULAR... AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS FORECAST BY MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO DEVELOP IN A COUPLE OF DAYS OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA... WHERE OCEAN TEMPERATURES ARE QUITE WARM NEAR 29C. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE FORECASTS A TROPICAL STORM IN 36 HOURS AND A PEAK AT 55 KT IN 96 HOURS... WHILE THE GFDL CONTINUES TO INSIST THE CYCLONE WILL BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 3-4 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS IN BETWEEN... BUT MUCH CLOSER TO THE SHIPS... AND IS JUST AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCES IN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE... AND THE CURRENT DISORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM... THIS INTENSITY FORECAST IS EVEN MORE UNCERTAIN THAN USUAL. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.2N 64.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 14.6N 65.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.1N 67.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 15.4N 69.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 15.5N 71.3W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 15.5N 75.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 15.5N 78.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 15.5N 80.5W 65 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 142058 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 4 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM AST LUNES 14 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION PERMANECE DESORGANIZADA SOBRE EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... LOS INTERESES EN EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y EN EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL Y LAS AREAS TERRESTRES ADYACENTES DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 PM EST...2100Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 14.2 NORTE... LONGITUD 64.5 OESTE O COMO A 235 MILLAS...380 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE SANTA LUCIA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH...13 KILOMETROS POR HORA...Y SE ESPERA QUE ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN ESTA TRAYECTORIA SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION CONTINUE ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL MARTES. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. PODRIAN SER POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS SOBRE TERRENOS ALTOS DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EST...14.2 NORTE...64.5 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 8 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EST. PRONOSTICADOR KNAAB $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH20 RPMM 141800 *** T T T WARNING 04 AT 1800 14 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FIVE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151800 ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AT 161800 ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT ZERO EAST AT 171800 TWO ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE THREE ZERO POINT THREE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 141800 *** TTT WARNING 04 AT 1800 14 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 10.5N 128.5E FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH AT 04MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 15MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 151800 13.7N 128.6E AT 161800 17.0N 129.0E AT 171800 20.0N 130.3E ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=