** WTSR20 WSSS 140600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN31 PGTW 141500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 10.2N 128.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.2N 128.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 11.9N 128.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 13.4N 128.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 15.2N 129.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 16.3N 128.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 171200Z --- 17.0N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 181200Z --- 17.9N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 191200Z --- 18.5N 125.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 141500Z POSITION NEAR 10.6N 128.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 500 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 141200Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 142100Z, 150300Z, 150900Z AND 151500Z.// ** WTNT32 KNHC 141439 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005 ...DEPRESSION SLOWLY ORGANIZING OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST OR ABOUT 175 MILES... 280 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH... 11 KM/HR... AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. WINDS COULD STILL GUST TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TODAY. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 63.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 5 PM AST. FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT22 KNHC 141439 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 1500Z MON NOV 14 2005 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.6W AT 14/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.6W AT 14/1500Z AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.3W FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 14.4N 64.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.1N 66.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.4N 68.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 15.4N 70.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 40SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.5N 74.0W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 35NE 25SE 25SW 35NW. 34 KT... 70NE 50SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 80.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 63.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 141440 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.6 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8AM AST THU NOV 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.1N 66.6W 52 X X X 52 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 12 12 15.4N 68.4W 20 14 X X 34 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 9 9 15.4N 70.4W X 20 7 1 28 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 2 2 SKPG 125N 717W X 1 8 5 14 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 9 9 TNCC 122N 690W X 8 4 1 13 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 4 4 80400 157N 636W 53 X X X 53 TJSJ 184N 661W 5 4 X 1 10 TISX 177N 648W 5 2 X 1 8 MDPP 198N 707W X 1 5 4 10 TIST 183N 650W 2 2 X X 4 MBJT 215N 712W X X X 3 3 TJPS 180N 666W 11 5 X X 16 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 2 2 MDSD 185N 697W X 9 6 2 17 ST CROIX VI 5 2 X 1 8 MDCB 176N 714W X 5 13 3 21 ST THOMAS VI 2 2 X X 4 MTPP 186N 724W X 1 8 7 16 SAN JUAN PR 5 4 X 1 10 MTCA 183N 738W X X 5 11 16 PONCE PR 11 5 X X 16 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8AM TUE TO 8PM TUE C FROM 8PM TUE TO 8AM WED D FROM 8AM WED TO 8AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER KNABB $$ ** WTPN21 PGTW 141430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 141421ZNOV2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 230 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 137.1E TO 21.3N 130.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 135.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 26 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.18N 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA. A 141107Z SSMI/S PASS AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE SPEED OF MOVE- MENT AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM COULD ROUND THE AXIS AND SHEAR APART IN THE MIDLATITUDE BEFORE IT CAN BECOME ORGANIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 151430Z.// ** WTPH RPLL 141200 *** TTT WARNING 03 AT 1200 14 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 10.0 NORTH 128.3 EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 04 MPS MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 150 KMS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUMWINDS 15 MPS NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151200 11.8 NORTH 127.8 EAST AT 161200 13.5 NORTH 128.0 EAST AT 171200 15.3 NORTH 128.6 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTNT42 KNHC 141458 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 WESTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO DISPLACE MOST OF THE CONVECTION TO THE EAST OF THE SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. HOWEVER... THE CONVECTION IS STILL RATHER DEEP AND PERSISTENT... AND IT APPEARS TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF FORMING A CURVED BAND THAT COULD SOON WRAP AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE CYCLONE APPEARS CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM... AS SUGGESTED BY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30-35 KT... BUT THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS MAINTAINED AT 30 KT TO WAIT FOR A LITTLE MORE ORGANIZATION IN THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING A LITTLE MORE SLOWLY THAN BEFORE... PRESUMABLY DUE TO THE EFFECTS OF THE WESTERLY SHEAR. WHILE THE INITIAL MOTION OF 295/6 IS STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE POOR ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM... IT APPEARS QUITE LIKELY THE CYCLONE WILL GENERALLY MOVE WESTWARD THROUGHOUT THE FIVE-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS TO PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THE RIDGE WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES... WHICH WOULD SERVE TO SLOW THE CYCLONE DOWN BUT NOT BE ENOUGH TO PICK IT UP OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. INDEED... ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE KEEPS THE CYCLONE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH FIVE DAYS... ALTHOUGH SOME DISAGREEMENT EXISTS ON THE LATITUDE AT WHICH THE CYCLONE WILL MOVE... MOSTLY DUE TO DIFFERENCES AMONG THE MODELS IN HOW STRONG THE CIRCULATION WILL BECOME. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY TO NUDGE TOWARD THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN OVER THE CARIBBEAN THIS MORNING IS RATHER ZONAL... WITH MUCH STRONGER WESTERLIES NORTH OF 15N THAN TO THE SOUTH. NONETHELESS... THE SHEAR APPEARS TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER THE DEPRESSION TO KEEP ITS SHORT-TERM DEVELOPMENT GRADUAL. THE MODELS FORECAST THE PATTERN TO BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED... WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE FORMING OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IN THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. IF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO SNEAK TO THE SOUTH OF THE STRONGER WESTERLIES AND BECOMES SITUATED BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE... IT COULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN. THE OCEAN TEMPERATURES DO NOT PROVIDE ANY LIMITING FACTOR... SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST HINGES LARGELY ON HOW SHEAR IMPACTS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE SHIPS GUIDANCE BASED ON GFS MODEL FIELDS DIAGNOSES SHEAR OF 25-30 KT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND DOES NOT FORECAST A TROPICAL STORM UNTIL 36 HOURS. IT THEN FORECASTS A STORM NO STRONGER THAN ABOUT 50 KT IN THE NEXT FIVE DAYS... BUT IT COULD BE OVERESTIMATING THE IMPACTS OF SHEAR... ESPECIALLY IF THE CYCLONE ENDS UP DIRECTLY BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE. THE GFDL CONTINUES TO FORECAST INTENSIFICATION TO A HURRICANE IN ABOUT THREE DAYS... WITH THE 06Z RUN PEAKING AT 110 KT IN ABOUT FOUR DAYS. GIVEN THE DIFFERENCE IN THE GUIDANCE ON A SYSTEM STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES... THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED ONLY SLIGHTLY UPWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN BETWEEN THE SHIPS AND GFDL. FORECASTER KNABB FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/1500Z 13.8N 63.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0000Z 14.4N 64.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 15/1200Z 15.1N 66.6W 40 KT 36HR VT 16/0000Z 15.4N 68.4W 40 KT 48HR VT 16/1200Z 15.4N 70.4W 45 KT 72HR VT 17/1200Z 15.5N 74.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 77.5W 60 KT 120HR VT 19/1200Z 15.5N 80.0W 65 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 141200 *** T T T WARNING 03 AT 1200 14 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 151200 ONE ONE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST AT 161200 ONE THRE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT ZERO EAST AT 171200 ONE FIVE POINT THREE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPN21 PGTW 141430 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 141421ZNOV2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 230 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 15.1N 137.1E TO 21.3N 130.2E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 141200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 135.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 26 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 140.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.18N 135.8E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO JIMA. A 141107Z SSMI/S PASS AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE PROVIDING EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW. LIMITING FACTORS ARE THE SPEED OF MOVE- MENT AND ITS PROXIMITY TO THE AXIS OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM COULD ROUND THE AXIS AND SHEAR APART IN THE MIDLATITUDE BEFORE IT CAN BECOME ORGANIZED AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE CONSOLIDATION OF DEEP CONVECTION AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 151430Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 141740 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 14.11.2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27 ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 63.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL272005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.11.2005 14.0N 63.3W WEAK 00UTC 15.11.2005 14.7N 64.9W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 15.11.2005 14.7N 66.7W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 16.11.2005 14.6N 68.5W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 16.11.2005 14.6N 69.3W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 72.8W WEAK WEAKENING RAPIDLY 12UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 74.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2005 14.0N 76.0W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.11.2005 15.0N 79.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2005 16.2N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.11.2005 17.8N 79.0W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 20.11.2005 18.2N 78.6W MODERATE WEAKENING RAPIDLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 141740