** WTIN20 DEMS 140622 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS-RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 14-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND THE ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL, SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST ARABIAN SEA. RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 15.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTNT22 KNHC 140835 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0900Z MON NOV 14 2005 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.2W AT 14/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 63.2W AT 14/0900Z AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.6N 62.8W FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.4N 64.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.1N 66.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.9N 67.8W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.0N 69.7W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 16.0N 73.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 16.0N 76.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 16.0N 79.5W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 63.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 140836 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005 ...LATE SEASON DEPRESSION OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS... PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH... LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST OR ABOUT 150 MILES... 240 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS MAY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS THIS MORNING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...13.8 N... 63.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 AM AST. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 140836 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM AST MON NOV 14 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.2 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2AM AST THU NOV 17 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.1N 66.2W 52 X X X 52 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 11 11 15.9N 67.8W 24 10 1 X 35 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 7 7 16.0N 69.7W 1 19 6 1 27 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 11 11 SKPG 125N 717W X X 4 7 11 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 TNCC 122N 690W X 3 4 2 9 TJSJ 184N 661W 6 7 1 1 15 80400 157N 636W 50 X X X 50 MDPP 198N 707W X 1 9 5 15 TISX 177N 648W 8 3 1 X 12 MBJT 215N 712W X X 2 6 8 TIST 183N 650W 3 4 1 X 8 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 5 5 TJPS 180N 666W 11 9 X 1 21 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 MDSD 185N 697W X 11 8 2 21 ST CROIX VI 8 3 1 X 12 MDCB 176N 714W X 3 15 4 22 ST THOMAS VI 3 4 1 X 8 MTPP 186N 724W X X 10 8 18 SAN JUAN PR 6 7 1 1 15 MTCA 183N 738W X X 4 13 17 PONCE PR 11 9 X 1 21 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM TUE FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2AM TUE TO 2PM TUE C FROM 2PM TUE TO 2AM WED D FROM 2AM WED TO 2AM THU E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2AM THU X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 140839 CCA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM EST DOMINGO 13 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE DE LA TEMPORADA DEL 2005 EN EL ATLANTICO SE FORMA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... LOS INTERESES EN EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y EN EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL Y LAS AREAS TERRESTRES ADYACENTES DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM EST...0300Z...DATA DE SATELITES Y EL RADAR DE MARTINICA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.7 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE SANTA LUCIA Y COMO A 100 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS AL OESTE DE SAN VICENTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE O NOROESTE CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION CONTINUE ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL LUNES. POSIBLES VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIAN SENTIRSE EN TERRENOS ALTOS DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM EST...13.5 NORTE...62.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPN31 PGTW 140900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 24W WARNING NR 004 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 9.6N 128.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 340 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 9.6N 128.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 11.4N 127.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.0N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 005 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 14.5N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 360 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 15.8N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 16.8N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 17.7N 127.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 190600Z --- 18.5N 126.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 140900Z POSITION NEAR 10.0N 128.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 535 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140600Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 141500Z, 142100Z, 150300Z AND 150900Z.// ** WTCA42 TJSJ 140845 *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 2 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 AM AST LUNES 14 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...DEPRESION TARDE EN LA TEMPORADA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE PRODUCIENDO LLUVIAS FUERTES SOBRE LAS ANTILLAS MENORES... LOS INTERESES EN EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y EN EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL Y LAS AREAS TERRESTRES ADYACENTES DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 5 AM EST...0900Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VEINTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 63.2 OESTE O COMO A 150 MILLAS...240 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE SANTA LUCIA. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE O NOROESTE CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION CONTINUE ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL LUNES. POSIBLES VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIAN SENTIRSE EN TERRENOS ALTOS DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1006 MILIBARAS...29.71 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. AREAS AISLADAS CON CANTIDADES DE 10 A 12 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE LUGARES ALTOS DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO...Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 AM EST...13.8 NORTE...63.2 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1006 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTNT42 KNHC 140852 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 4 AM EST MON NOV 14 2005 LATEST DVORAK SATELLITE ANALYSES SUPPORT A CURRENT INTENSITY OF 30 KT...SO THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH CHANGE IN STRENGTH SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY. ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGES CONTINUE TO DEPICT VERY STRONG CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM...BUT IT IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED AND IS DISPLACED PRIMARILY TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED LOW-LEVEL CENTER LOCATION. SIGNIFICANT WESTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR...DUE TO AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT LIES ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES...SHOULD CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SHIPS MODEL DIAGNOSES 25-33 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR THROUGH 48 HOURS...AND IS LESS AGGRESSIVE ON STRENGTHENING THAN IT WAS EARLIER. BEYOND 2 DAYS...ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE MOVES INTO WEST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN...GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE SHEARING WILL LESSEN AS A RESULT OF AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER THAT REGION. THE GFDL MODEL CONTINUES TO FORECAST STRENGTHENING INTO A HURRICANE LATER IN THE PERIOD. THAT MODEL HAS BEEN KNOWN TO OVER-INTENSIFY SYSTEMS IN SHEARED ENVIRONMENTS...BUT IT NONETHELESS DEMANDS THE FORECASTERS' RESPECT AS VERY CREDIBLE GUIDANCE. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS MAINLY A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND GFDL OUTPUT AND IS THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. SINCE THE SYSTEM IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGE...THE CENTER IS NOT YET WELL-DEFINED...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A RATHER UNCERTAIN 295/9. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD WEAKEN THIS RIDGE...AND SLOW THE EASTERLY STEERING CURRENT. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE NOT INITIALIZED THE DEPRESSION VERY WELL THUS FAR...SO A SUITE OF DYNAMICAL MODEL TRACKS IS NOT AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME. MY OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE GFDL TRACK. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0900Z 13.8N 63.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1800Z 14.4N 64.5W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0600Z 15.1N 66.2W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1800Z 15.9N 67.8W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/0600Z 16.0N 69.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/0600Z 16.0N 73.5W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/0600Z 16.0N 76.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0600Z 16.0N 79.5W 60 KT $$ ** WTPH20 RPMM 140600 *** T T T WARNING 02 AT 0600 14 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 150600 ONE TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST AT 160600 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FIVE EAST AT 170600 ONE EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPH RPLL 140600 *** TTT WARNING 02 AT 0600 14 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT NINE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT SIX EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO ZERO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE FIVE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 150600 ONE TWO POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT FOUR EAST AT 160600 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FIVE EAST AT 170600 ONE EIGHT POINT SIX NORTH ONE THREE ONE POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD=