** WTSR20 WSSS 131800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPN31 PGTW 140300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24W WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 140000Z --- NEAR 8.2N 128.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 8.2N 128.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 9.3N 128.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 10.4N 127.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 11.7N 127.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 12.8N 126.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 170000Z --- 15.0N 126.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 140300Z POSITION NEAR 8.5N 128.7E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 24W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF TANDAG, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 140000Z IS 10 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 140900Z, 141500Z, 142100Z AND 150300Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 140000 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0000 14 NOVEMBER,TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT SEVEN POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTO PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 150000 ONE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 160000 ONE TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST AT 170000 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT22 KNHC 140247 *** TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL272005 0300Z MON NOV 14 2005 INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 62.7W AT 14/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 62.7W AT 14/0300Z AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.2N 62.3W FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.3N 64.1W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.3N 65.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 15.9N 67.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 35SE 25SW 35NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 16.1N 68.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 72.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 45SE 45SW 60NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 16.0N 79.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.5N 62.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT72 KNHC 140249 *** SPFAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE DEPRESSION CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 7PM EST WED NOV 16 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 15.3N 65.7W 49 X X X 49 MDCB 176N 714W X 1 10 7 18 15.9N 67.2W 23 8 1 X 32 MTPP 186N 724W X X 4 11 15 16.1N 68.8W 2 18 3 2 25 MTCA 183N 738W X X 1 13 14 SKPG 125N 717W X X 3 8 11 MKJP 179N 768W X X X 8 8 TNCC 122N 690W X 3 5 3 11 MKJS 185N 779W X X X 5 5 SVMG 110N 640W 1 X X 1 2 MUGM 200N 751W X X X 9 9 TGPY 120N 618W 18 X X X 18 MUCM 214N 779W X X X 3 3 TVSV 131N 612W 54 X X X 54 TJSJ 184N 661W 9 8 2 X 19 TLPL 138N 610W 21 X X X 21 MDPP 198N 707W X X 7 7 14 TFFF 146N 610W 2 X X X 2 MBJT 215N 712W X X 1 7 8 80400 157N 636W 49 X X X 49 MYMM 224N 730W X X X 5 5 TKPK 173N 627W 2 2 X X 4 MYEG 235N 758W X X X 2 2 TNCM 181N 631W 1 2 1 X 4 ST CROIX VI 16 3 X X 19 TISX 177N 648W 16 3 X X 19 ST THOMAS VI 8 6 1 1 16 TIST 183N 650W 8 6 1 1 16 SAN JUAN PR 9 8 2 X 19 TJPS 180N 666W 12 9 1 1 23 PONCE PR 12 9 1 1 23 MDSD 185N 697W X 5 10 4 19 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM MON FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 7PM MON TO 7AM TUE C FROM 7AM TUE TO 7PM TUE D FROM 7PM TUE TO 7PM WED E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 7PM WED X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT32 KNHC 140258 *** TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005 ...THE TWENTY-SEVENTH TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE 2005 ATLANTIC SEASON DEVELOPS OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA AND ADJACENT LAND AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...DATA FROM SATELLITES AND THE MARTINIQUE RADAR INDICATE THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.7 WEST OR ABOUT 115 MILES ... 185 KM... WEST OF ST. LUCIA AND ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM... WEST OF ST. VINCENT. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH ...17 KM/HR. A GENERAL MOTION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK... THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE WINDWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH... 55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS ...AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. WINDS MAY GUST TO TROPICAL STORM-FORCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB...29.74 INCHES. THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... AND 3 TO 5 INCHES OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS... LEEWARD ISLANDS... PUERTO RICO... AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...13.5 N... 62.7 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 35 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM EST. FORECASTER STEWART $$ ** WTNT42 KNHC 140259 *** TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN NOV 13 2005 SATELLITE IMAGERY... SURFACE OBSERVATIONS... AND RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE INDICATE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE AND BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. AT 14/0000Z... ST. LUCIA REPORTED SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 29 KT ...AND SHIP ZCBU6 LOCATED JUST OFF THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 27 KT. SURFACE PRESSURE ANALYSES AT 00Z SUPPORT A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF AT LEAST 1007 MB... CORRESPONDING TO APPROXIMATELY 32 KT. RADAR DATA FROM MARTINIQUE SHOW CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND EAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER... WHICH IS COINCIDENT WITH THE LARGE AREA OF -80C TO -82C CONVECTIVE TOPS THAT HAVE BEEN NOTED IN INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE 22Z. THEREFORE... THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWENTY-SEVEN. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09. THE DEPRESSION IS STILL IN THE FORMATIVE STAGES... SO THERE MAY SOME ERRATIC MOTION FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE CONVECTION BECOMES MORE CONSOLIDATED AROUND THE CENTER. HOWEVER... THE GENERAL TREND BY THE VARIOUS GLOBAL MODELS AND THE GFDL MODEL IS FOR THE CYCLONE TO PROPAGATE WEST-NORTH OR NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS TOWARD A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA AND NORTHERN LESSER ANTILLES. AFTER THAT... THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THAT HAS CREATED THE WEAKNESS IS FORECAST TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AND LIFT OUT TO THE NORTHEAST... ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO BUILD EASTWARD TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE. THIS SHOULD ACT TO THE DRIVE THE STORM WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA IN THE 48-120 HOUR FORECAST PERIODS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE NOGAPS... UKMET... AND GFDL MODELS. UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLY SHEAR OF 20-25 KT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS... WHICH SHOULD INHIBIT ANY RAPID DEVELOPMENT DURING THAT TIME. AFTERWARDS... THE SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT... AT WHICH TIME MORE SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT COULD OCCUR. THE SHIPS MODEL BRINGS THE INTENSITY UP TO 66 KT IN 108 HOURS... WHEREAS THE GFDL MAKES THE CYCLONE A 112-KT MAJOR HURRICANE AT THE SAME TIME. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL FORECAST WAS BASED ON THE MEDIUM BAM MODEL FORECAST TRACK... WHICH TAKES THE STORM SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS COLOMBIA WHERE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH STRONGER THAN THEY ARE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. IT IS QUITE POSSIBLE THAT THIS SYSTEM COULD END UP STRONGER THAN INDICATED AFTER 72 HOURS... GIVEN THE MUCH LOWER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE 96- AND 120-HOUR OFFICIAL FORECAST POSITIONS. FORECASTER STEWART FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/0300Z 13.5N 62.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 14/1200Z 14.3N 64.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/0000Z 15.3N 65.7W 35 KT 36HR VT 15/1200Z 15.9N 67.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/0000Z 16.1N 68.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/0000Z 16.0N 72.2W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/0000Z 16.0N 75.5W 50 KT 120HR VT 19/0000Z 16.0N 79.0W 60 KT $$ ** WTCA42 TJSJ 140323 RRA *** TCPSP2 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 1 NWS TPC/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM EST DOMINGO 13 DE NOVIEMBRE DE 2005 ...LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE DE LA TEMPORADA DEL 2005 EN EL ATLANTICO SE FORMA SOBRE EL SURESTE DEL MAR CARIBE... LOS INTERESES EN EL ESTE DEL MAR CARIBE Y EN EL MAR CARIBE CENTRAL Y LAS AREAS TERRESTRES ADYACENTES DEBEN MANTENERSE ATENTOS AL PROGRESO DE ESTE SISTEMA. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES AVISOS Y VIGILANCIAS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA LOCAL DEL SERVICIO DE METEOROLOGIA. A LAS 10 PM EST...0300Z...DATA DE SATELITES Y EL RADAR DE MARTINICA INDICAN QUE EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL VENTISIETE ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.5 NORTE...LONGITUD 62.7 OESTE O COMO A 115 MILLAS...185 KILOMETROS...AL OESTE DE SANTA LUCIA Y COMO A 100 MILLAS...165 KILOMETROS AL OESTE DE SAN VICENTE. LA DEPRESION SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH...17 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA QUE UN MOVIMIENTO GENERAL HACIA EL OESTE NOROESTE O NOROESTE CONTINUE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. EN LA TRAYECTORIA PRONOSTICADA...SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION CONTINUE ALEJANDOSE DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 35 MPH...55 KILOMETROS POR HORA...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. SE PRONOSTICA ALGUN LENTO FORTALECIMIENTO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS...Y LA DEPRESION PODRIA CONVERTIRSE EN TORMENTA TROPICAL EL LUNES. POSIBLES VIENTOS EN RAFAGAS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PODRIAN SENTIRSE EN TERRENOS ALTOS DE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO ESTA NOCHE Y TEMPRANO EL LUNES EN LA MANANA. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1007 MILIBARAS...29.74 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LA DEPRESION PRODUZCA ACUMULACIONES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 5 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE BARLOVENTO...Y DE 3 A 5 PULGADAS SOBRE LAS ISLAS DE SOTAVENTO...PUERTO RICO Y LAS ISLAS VIRGENES. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM EST...13.5 NORTE...62.7 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA...EL OESTE NOROESTE A CERCA DE 10 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...35 MPH. PRESION MINIMA CENTRAL...1007 MILIBARAS. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 4 AM EST. PRONOSTICADOR STEWART $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTPH RPLL 140000 *** TTT WARNING 01 AT 0000 14 NOVEMBER, TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT SEVEN POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT FOUR EAST FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH NORTHWEST AT ZERO THREE METERS PER SECOND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE ONE ZERO ZERO TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 150000 ONE ZERO POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO EIGHT POINT THREE EAST AT 160000 ONE TWO POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FOUR EAST AT 170000 ONE FIVE POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT FIVE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN DEPRESSION AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD= ** WTNT80 EGRR 140500 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 14.11.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 13.8N 64.0W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 14.11.2005 13.8N 64.0W WEAK 00UTC 15.11.2005 14.8N 65.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 15.11.2005 14.7N 67.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 16.11.2005 15.2N 70.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 16.11.2005 14.7N 70.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 17.11.2005 14.6N 72.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 17.11.2005 13.9N 74.4W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 76.5W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 18.11.2005 14.5N 78.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 19.11.2005 15.3N 79.3W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 19.11.2005 15.4N 79.4W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY 00UTC 20.11.2005 17.1N 78.4W STRONG WEAKENING SLIGHTLY THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 140500