** WTPN21 PGTW 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/122151ZNOV2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3N 132.3E TO 8.6N 129.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 6.5N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 121617Z AMSR/E PASS AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO IT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IM- PROVING OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 132200Z.// ** WTPN21 PGTW 122200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/122151ZNOV2005// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.3N 132.3E TO 8.6N 129.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT IM AGERY AT 122030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.5N 132.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION NEAR 6.5N 132.2E, APPROXIMATELY 150 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS PERSISTED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. A 121617Z AMSR/E PASS AND ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A WELL DEFINED AND TIGHTENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION INCREASING IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO IT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE AREA IS UNDER LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND OUTFLOW IS GRADUALLY BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD DIFFLUENCE TO THE WEST AND NORTH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. DUE TO THE IM- PROVING OUTFLOW CHANNELS AND CONSOLIDATING DEEP CONVECTION, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 132200Z.//