** WTSR20 WSSS 101800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 110000 *** WARNING 110000. WARNING VALID 120000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0522 TEMBIN (0522) 1000 HPA AT 16.9N 120.0E NORTHERN PART OF SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 17.5N 118.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 18.4N 117.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 140000UTC AT 19.3N 115.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) ANALYSIS PSTN 110000UTC 16.9N 120.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 120000UTC 17.5N 118.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 130000UTC 18.4N 117.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 72HF 140000UTC 19.3N 115.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TEMBIN 0522 (0522) INITIAL TIME 110000 UTC 00HR 16.9N 119.8E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 18.1N 117.5E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 18.6N 116.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 19.0N 114.6E 998HPA 18M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 110000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 110000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 110000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 2 NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN ANALYSIS POSITION 110000UTC 16.9N 120.0E MOVEMENT WNW 10KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 120000UTC 18.1N 118.0E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 130000UTC 19.2N 116.6E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 140000UTC 20.2N 114.9E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTSS20 VHHH 110145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (0522) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 110145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110000 UTC, TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (0522) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (119.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (17.3 N) ONE ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (117.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140000 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (113.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 110300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z --- NEAR 16.3N 120.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 120.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 17.0N 119.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.7N 118.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 18.2N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.6N 116.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 18.7N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 03 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 18.2N 114.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 160000Z --- 17.5N 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 110300Z POSITION NEAR 16.5N 120.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM NORTH-NORTWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST- WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED AS THE STORM TRAVERSED THE NORTHERN PHILIPPINES. THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER HAS BEEN DISRUPTED BY THE TERRIAN OF LUZON AND IS DIFFICULT TO LOCATE IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 110000Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 110900Z, 111500Z, 112100Z AND 120300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 110300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TEMBIN 0522 (0522) INITIAL TIME 110300 UTC 00HR 17.1N 119.6E 998HPA 18M/S 30KTS 300KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPH20 RPMM 110000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 12 AT 0000 11 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (TEMBIN) (0522) WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120000 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 110300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) ANALYSIS PSTN 110300UTC 16.9N 119.4E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 1002HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 120300UTC 17.7N 117.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 130000UTC 18.4N 117.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 69HF 140000UTC 19.3N 115.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT = ** WTPH RPLL 110000 *** TTT GALE WARNING 12 AT 0000 11 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (TEMBIN)(0522) WAS ESTMD BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE SIX POINT SIX NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT ZERO EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO FOUR METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUG SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTMD CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPSCALS MAX WNDS ONE EIGHT METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHINONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 120000 ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHINSTORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO TO WEATHER MANILA PD END OF FCST= ** WTIN20 DEMS 110455 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 11-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL,ANDAMAN SEA, COMORIN AREA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTSS20 VHHH 110445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (0522) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 110445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 110300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (0522) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (119.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (116.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (115.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 140300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (113.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 110522 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 11.11.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 110522