** WTIN20 DEMS 100625 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 10-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL,AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA,CAMORIN AREA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TEMBIN 0522 (0522) INITIAL TIME 100600 UTC 00HR 15.4N 123.2E 992HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 118.4E 995HPA 20M/S P+48HR 20.0N 115.7E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 22.2N 114.4E 995HPA 20M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) ANALYSIS PSTN 100600UTC 15.8N 122.4E FAIR MOVE WNW 20KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 110600UTC 17.8N 116.8E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 14KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 120600UTC 18.4N 114.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 130600UTC 19.2N 113.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 100600 *** WARNING 100600. WARNING VALID 110600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0522 TEMBIN (0522) 1000 HPA AT 15.8N 122.4E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 20 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110600UTC AT 17.8N 116.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120600UTC AT 18.4N 114.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130600UTC AT 19.2N 113.3E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 2 FOR TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 100900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100600Z --- NEAR 15.2N 122.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 23 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.2N 122.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 16.2N 120.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 17.1N 118.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 18.0N 116.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.8N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 20.2N 114.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.0N 113.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 21.5N 111.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100900Z POSITION NEAR 15.5N 122.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 100 NM EAST- NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 101500Z, 102100Z, 110300Z AND 110900Z.// ** WTPQ20 VHHH 100745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 100600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (0522) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (122.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110600 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (118.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (17.4 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (113.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TEMBIN 0522 (0522) INITIAL TIME 100900 UTC 00HR 15.6N 122.3E 992HPA 23M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H P+24HR 17.7N 117.5E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) ANALYSIS PSTN 100900UTC 15.8N 122.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 110900UTC 17.5N 117.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 120600UTC 18.4N 114.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 130600UTC 19.2N 113.3E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 100600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 09 AT 0600 10 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (TEMBIN)(0522)WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST MOVING WEST NORTH WEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITION AT 101800 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE EAST AT 110600 ONE SEVEN POINT FOR NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 111800 ONE NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILAPD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 100600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 09 AT 0600 10 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM (TEMBIN) (0522 WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON RADAR, SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE FIVE POINT ZERO NROTH ONE TWO THREE POINT THREE EAST MOVNG WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SEVEN METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE TWO HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS TWO THREE METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHINE ONE FIVE ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101800 ONE SIX POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO ZERO POINT FIVE EAST AT 110600 ONE SEVEN POINT FOUR NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT EAST AND AT 111800 ONE NINE POINT NINE NORTH ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD ** WTPQ20 VHHH 101045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 100900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM TEMBIN (0522) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 995 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE TWO TWO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (122.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 13 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 100 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110900 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (17.5 N) ONE ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (116.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (114.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS.