** WTSR20 WSSS 091800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 100000 *** WARNING 100000. WARNING VALID 110000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0522 TEMBIN (0522) UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 14.9N 124.5E SEA EAST OF PHILIPPINES MOVING WEST 15 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 110000UTC AT 16.7N 119.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1000 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 120000UTC AT 18.0N 114.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 130000UTC AT 21.0N 111.8E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) UPGRADED FROM TD ANALYSIS PSTN 100000UTC 14.9N 124.5E FAIR MOVE W 15KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 110000UTC 16.7N 119.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 120000UTC 18.0N 114.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 130000UTC 21.0N 111.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 100000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 1 FOR TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 100000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TEMBIN 0522 (0522) INITIAL TIME 100000 UTC 00HR 14.9N 124.4E 998HPA 20M/S 30KTS 200KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H P+24HR 16.5N 119.6E 998HPA 18M/S P+48HR 18.4N 116.2E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 21.2N 113.5E 990HPA 23M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 100000 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 1 NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN ANALYSIS POSITION 100000UTC 14.9N 124.5E MOVEMENT W 15KT PRES/VMAX 1000HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 110000UTC 16.4N 119.9E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 996HPA 39KT 48HR POSITION 120000UTC 18.3N 116.7E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 45KT 72HR POSITION 130000UTC 21.0N 114.0E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 52KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPQ20 VHHH 100145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEMBIN (0522) HAS ENTERED THE AREA OF RESPONSIBILITY OF THE HONG KONG OBSERVATORY. AT 100000 UTC, TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEMBIN (0522) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE TWO FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (125.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 16 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 1007 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (118.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120000 UTC ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (115.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130000 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (113.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 100300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W (TEMBIN) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 100000Z --- NEAR 14.4N 125.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.4N 125.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.0N 122.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 15.8N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.9N 119.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 17.8N 117.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 19.2N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 20.6N 115.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 22.0N 115.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 100300Z POSITION NEAR 14.6N 124.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W (TEMBIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE STORM CIRCULATION IS RATHER SMALL, AND THE WIND FIELD IS GREATEST ON THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 100000Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 100900Z, 101500Z, 102100Z AND 110300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 100300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS TEMBIN 0522 (0522) INITIAL TIME 100300 UTC 00HR 15.1N 123.9E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 25KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 100300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0522 TEMBIN (0522) ANALYSIS PSTN 100300UTC 15.5N 123.4E FAIR MOVE W 16KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 180NM NORTH 120NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 110300UTC 17.1N 118.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 120000UTC 18.0N 114.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 12KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 130000UTC 21.0N 111.8E 220NM 70% MOVE NW 09KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH RPLL 100000 *** TTT WARNING 08 AT 0000 10 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATE- LLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT 14.7N 124.8E MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT 06MPS ROUGH TO HIGH SEAS WITHIN 250KMS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 150 KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE 992 HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS 23 MPS NEAR CENTER 13 MPS WITHIN 250KMS NORTH SEMI-CIRCLE 150KMS RADIUS ELSEWHERE CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 110000 16.7 NORTH 119.6 EAST AT 120000 19.8 NORTH 115.0 EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND 3-HRLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA ** WTPQ20 VHHH 100445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEMBIN (0522) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 HECTOPASCALS. AT 100300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE TWO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (123.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST AT ABOUT 15 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 120 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 110300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (15.4 N) ONE ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (118.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 120300 UTC ONE SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (16.4 N) ONE ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (115.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 130300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (112.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 100544 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.11.2005 TROPICAL STORM ANALYSED IN THE MODEL AT POSITION : 12.0N 109.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.11.2005 12.0N 109.8W WEAK 12UTC 10.11.2005 12.2N 112.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.11.2005 11.9N 115.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.11.2005 12.0N 117.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2005 12.2N 118.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2005 11.3N 121.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 13.11.2005 11.3N 124.2W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 13.11.2005 11.1N 125.8W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 14.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 100544