** WTSR20 WSSS 090600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 091200UTC 12.8N 127.8E POOR MOVE W 15KT PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 101200UTC 13.8N 122.5E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPN31 PGTW 091500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 091200Z --- NEAR 14.2N 127.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 285 DEGREES AT 20 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.2N 127.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 15.2N 124.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.2N 121.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.2N 119.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 18.2N 118.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 19.6N 116.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 21.2N 115.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 22.8N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 091500Z POSITION NEAR 14.5N 127.1E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 405 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 091200Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 092100Z, 100300Z, 100900Z AND 101500Z.// ** WTPQ20 RJTD 091500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TD ANALYSIS PSTN 091500UTC 13.7N 126.5E POOR MOVE W 16KT PRES 1008HPA MXWD 030KT FORECAST 24HF 101500UTC 14.0N 121.8E 150NM 70% MOVE W 13KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPH20 RPMM 091200 *** T T T GALE WARNING 06 AT 1200 09 NOVERMBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE SEVEN METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101200 ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST AT 111200 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AND AT 121200 ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTNT80 EGRR 091712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 09.11.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 11.6N 110.4W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 10.11.2005 11.6N 110.4W WEAK 12UTC 10.11.2005 11.6N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.11.2005 12.6N 114.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.11.2005 11.6N 116.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2005 12.6N 118.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 12.11.2005 11.6N 120.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 091712 ** WTPH RPMM 091200 *** TTT GALE WARNING 06 AT 1200 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE TWO SEVEN POINT NINE EAST MOVING WEST NORTHWEST AT ZERO SIX METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZEROZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDSONE SEVEN METERS PER SECONMD NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 101200 ONE FIVE POINT TWO NORTH ONE TWO THREE POINT ZERO EAST AT 111200 ONE SEVEN POINT THREE NORTH ONE ONE EIGHT POINT SIX EAST AND AT 121200 ONE NINE POINT SEVEN NORTH ONE ONE FOUR POINT TWO EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TOS END THREE - HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA