** WTIN20 DEMS 090600 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 09-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH WEST BAY OF BENGAL,AND PARTS OF SOUTH EAST BAY AND NORTH ANDAMAN SEA,CAMORIN AREA, AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST ARABIAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 13.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPN31 PGTW 090900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 009 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 090600Z --- NEAR 13.5N 130.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 16 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.5N 130.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 14.1N 127.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 100600Z --- 14.8N 125.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 15.6N 123.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 110600Z --- 16.6N 120.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 120600Z --- 18.4N 117.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 19.9N 115.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 21.5N 114.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT --- REMARKS: 090900Z POSITION NEAR 13.7N 129.4E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 530 NM EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 16 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 090600Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 091500Z, 092100Z, 100300Z AND 100900Z.// ** WTPH20 RPMM 090600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 0600 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTOPASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE SEVEN METERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE METERS PER SECOND WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETERS RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100600 ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 110600 ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 120600 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD WEATHER MANILA= ** WTPH RPLL 090600 *** TTT GALE WARNING 05 AT 0600 09 NOVEMBER TROPICAL STORM UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION WAS ESTIMATED BASED ON SASTELLITE AND SURFACE DATA AT ONE THREE POINT ONE NORTH ONE TWO NINE POINT SIX EAST MOVING WEST AT ZERO FIVE METERS PER SECOND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS WITHIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER EASTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE NINE NINE SEVEN HECTO- PASCALS MAXIMUM WINDS ONE SEVEN EMTERS PER SECOND NEAR CENTER ONE THREE EMTERS PER SECOND WIHTIN TWO ZERO ZERO KILOMETER RADIUS FROM CENTER FORECAST POSITIONS AT 100600 ONE THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ONE TWO FIVE POINT FOUR EAST AT 110600 ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE TWO ONE POINT FIVE EAST AND AT 120600 ONE SIX POINT EIGHT NORTH ONE ONE SEVEN POINT NINE EAST ALL SHIPS WITHIN STORM AREA ARE REQUESTED TO SEND THREE-HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD