** WTSR20 WSSS 071800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 080018 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 6/3 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 999 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 77.2E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 12 UTC: 11.1S / 77.1E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/09 AT 00 UTC: 12.1S / 76.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED ; ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GENERALLY TRACK SOUTHWARDS TOWARDS AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 080018 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 6/3/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2005/11/08 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.2S / 77.2E (TEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST ) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 999 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 11.1S/77.1E, MAX WIND=025KT. 24H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 12.1S/76.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 36H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 13.2S/75.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 48H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: 14.2S/74.7E, MAX WIND=025KT. 60H: 2005/11/10 12 UTC: 15.1S/73.8E, MAX WIND=025KT. 72H: 2005/11/11 00 UTC: 16.5S/73.0E, MAX WIND=025KT. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5- ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY DISORGANIZED. THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POOR.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 080020 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 08/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: TUESDAY 08/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 85.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 14 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 12 UTC: 17.2S / 82.8E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/09 AT 00 UTC: 18.3S / 80.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT, DISSIPATING. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON REGULARLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS . IT WEAKENS REGULARLY, AND SHOULD DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS IT TRACKS WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 080023 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/4/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 2.A POSITION 2005/11/08 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 85.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 17.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=025KT . 24H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 18.3S/80.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 36H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 19.5S/78.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (COOLER SST). THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 080023 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/4/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 2.A POSITION 2005/11/08 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 16.0S / 85.0E (SIXTEEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY FIVE DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 0.5/6 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 17.2S/82.8E, MAX WIND=025KT . 24H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 18.3S/80.4E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 36H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 19.5S/78.0E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0, CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (COOLER SST). THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. . ** WTXS21 PGTW 080200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 080153ZNOV05// RMKS/ REF/A/RMG/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/070200Z NOV 05// AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 070151)// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.9S 76.9E TO 11.6S 74.9E WITH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 072330Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 10.1S 76.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THIS SUPERSEDES REF A. AN AREA OF CONVECTION, NEAR 10.1S 76.8E, APPROXIMATELY 300 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF DIEGO GARCIA HAS PER- SISTED OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS THAT DEEP CONVECTION IS DISPLACED TO THE WEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS UNDER MODERATE VERT- ICAL WIND SHEAR. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT OUTFLOW AS- SOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S IS IMPINGING UPON PROPER VENTING OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. IN GENERAL, THE ORGANIZATION AND CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE AREA IS WEAKER THAN THE PREVIOUS 24 HOURS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE PROX- IMITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION TO THE LLCC, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF RE- COUPLING, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 090200Z.// ** WTPN31 PGTW 080300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 080000Z --- NEAR 13.3N 135.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 310 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 135.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 14.4N 132.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.0N 129.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 16 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 15.6N 126.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.2N 123.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 110000Z --- 17.4N 119.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 18.1N 117.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 18.9N 114.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 080300Z POSITION NEAR 13.6N 134.7E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 080000Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z, 081500Z, 082100Z AND 090300Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 080337 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 23W ADVISORY NUMBER 4 200 PM GUAM LST TUE NOV 8 2005 ...TROPICAL STORM 23W CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 PM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 23W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 134.7 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 365 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 420 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 410 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU AND 475 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS 675 MILES WEST OF GUAM. TROPICAL STORM 23W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. THE TROPICAL STORM IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL CARRY TROPICAL STORM 23W FARTHER AWAY FROM YAP AND ANY OTHER ISLAND IN MICRONESIA. THIS MEANS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 23W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 PM POSITION...13.6 DEGREES NORTH AND 134.7 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 PM GUAM LST. $$ ZIOBRO ** WTNT80 EGRR 080520 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 08.11.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+36 : 11.3N 106.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.11.2005 11.3N 106.5W WEAK 00UTC 10.11.2005 12.4N 109.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.11.2005 13.3N 110.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.11.2005 13.5N 112.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.11.2005 14.1N 114.7W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 080520