** WTIO20 FMEE 071824 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 005/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0S / 77.5E (TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH 5 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 250 NM OF THE CENTRE, MAINLY IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 06 UTC: 10.9S / 77.4E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 18 UTC: 11.6S / 77.0E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED ; ASSOCIATED CONVECTION IS DISORGANIZED.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 071826 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/11/2005 AT 1800 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 86.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) AT 1800 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 13 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS UP TO 200 NM FROM THE CENTER IN THE NORTHWESTERN SECTOR OF THE ESTIMATED CENTRE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND MODERATE TO ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SECTOR. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 06 UTC: 15.4S / 84.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 18 UTC: 16.0S / 82.3E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM KEEPS ON REGULARLY TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS . THE SYSTEM SHOULD PROGRESSIVELY WEAKEN WITHIN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 071827 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/4/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.8S / 86.2E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY SIX DECIMAL TWO DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 300 SO: 250 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 700 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/08 06 UTC: 15.4S/84.3E, MAX WIND=030KT . 24H: 2005/11/08 18 UTC: 16.0S/82.3E, MAX WIND=025KT . 36H: 2005/11/09 06 UTC: 17.0S/80.5E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 48H: 2005/11/09 18 UTC: 18.3S/78.5E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS, TOWARDS A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT (COOLER SST). THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY AND DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 071917 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 5/3/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 1800 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 10.0S / 77.5E (TEN DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /W 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 040 SE: 250 SO: 250 NO: 040 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/08 06 UTC: 10.9S/77.4E, MAX WIND=025KT . 24H: 2005/11/08 18 UTC: 11.6S/77.0E, MAX WIND=025KT . 36H: 2005/11/09 06 UTC: 12.3S/76.5E, MAX WIND=025KT . 48H: 2005/11/09 18 UTC: 13.0S/75.9E, MAX WIND=025KT . 60H: 2005/11/10 06 UTC: 13.7S/75.2E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/10 18 UTC: 14.5S/74.5E DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0+, CI=2.5- ASSOCIATED CONVECTION HAS COMPLETELY DISORGANIZED. THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POOR.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 072100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 23W WARNING NR 003 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 12.6N 136.1E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 12.6N 136.1E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 13.9N 134.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 14.7N 131.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 15.5N 128.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 15 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 16.3N 124.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 10 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101800Z --- 17.6N 120.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 09 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 111800Z --- 19.1N 117.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 21.9N 115.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 12.9N 135.6E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 220 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 13 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080300Z, 080900Z, 081500Z AND 082100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 072100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 86.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 86.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.9S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.2S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.7S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 20.4S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 86.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 072100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071800Z --- NEAR 14.9S 86.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 245 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 14.9S 86.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 15.9S 84.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 17.2S 82.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090600Z --- 18.7S 80.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091800Z --- 20.4S 78.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 072100Z POSITION NEAR 15.2S 86.3E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 450 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071800Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 080900Z AND 082100Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 072140 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM 23W ADVISORY NUMBER 3 800 AM GUAM LST TUE NOV 8 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 7 AM GUAM LST...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM 23W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 135.6 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 290 MILES NORTHWEST OF YAP 340 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 340 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU AND 395 MILES NORTHWEST OF FAIS. TROPICAL STORM 23W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL CARRY TROPICAL STORM 23W FARTHER AWAY FROM YAP. THIS MEANS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED ON YAP OR ANY NEIGHBORING ISLANDS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM 23W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 7 AM POSITION...12.9 DEGREES NORTH AND 135.6 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 17 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 2 PM GUAM LST. $$ AHN