** WTSR20 WSSS 070600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 071212 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 003/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 88.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 80 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 200 NM IN THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 90 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 00 UTC: 15.0S / 85.9E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 12 UTC: 15.8S / 83.7E, MAX WIND = 25 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM IS NOW SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED. IT IS TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS AND IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 071212 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 3/4/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 40 NM RADIUS OF POINT 14.2S / 88.5E (FOURTEEN DECIMAL TWO DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY EIGHT DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.0/2.5 /S 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 180 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 600 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 15.0S/85.9E, MAX WIND=030KT . 24H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 15.8S/83.7E, MAX WIND=025KT . 36H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 16.8S/81.6E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 48H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 18.2S/79.7E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=2.0 CI=2.5- CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SEEMS NOW SLIGHTLY DISORGANIZED ; THE LLCC CENTRE IS PARLY EXPOSED DUE TO A WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTHWESTWARDS, OVER COOLER SST. THE SYSTEM IS THUS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 071220 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 004/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/11/2005 AT 1200 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 77.6E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) AT 1200 UTC MOVEMENT: QUASI-STATIONARY THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 200 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, MAINLY IN THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN QUADRANTS. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 100 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 00 UTC: 9.8S / 77.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 12 UTC: 10.3S / 77.8E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: THE SYSTEM INTENSITY SEEMS NOW STABILIZED. IT IS EXPECTED TO UNDERGO UNFAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND WEAKEN GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 071220 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 4/3/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 1200 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 9.3S / 77.6E (NINE DECIMAL THREE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 080 SE: 200 SO: 200 NO: 120 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 1200 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 09.8S/77.7E, MAX WIND=030KT . 24H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 10.3S/77.8E, MAX WIND=030KT . 36H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 11.6S/77.1E, MAX WIND=025KT . 48H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 12.5S/76.3E, MAX WIND=025KT . 60H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: 13.6S/75.6E, MAX WIND=025KT . 72H: 2005/11/10 12 UTC: 14.8S/74.8E, MAX WIND=025KT . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- THE LLCC CENTRE IS LOCATED PARTLY EXPOSED, EAST OF THE CURVED BAND, DUE TO A SLIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MONSOON FLOW IS FAVOURABLE, UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD, BUT THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE. THE SYSTEM INTENSITY NOW SEEMS STABIULIZED AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION IS POOR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONNARY, BEFORE TRACKING SOUTHWESTWARDS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 071500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WARNING NR 002 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 071200Z --- NEAR 11.5N 137.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 10 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT REPEAT POSIT: 11.5N 137.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 12.9N 135.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 081200Z --- 13.8N 132.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 14.2N 129.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 285 DEG/ 14 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 14.8N 127.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 15.8N 122.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 071500Z POSITION NEAR 11.8N 136.8E. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 23W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 130 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 071200Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 072100Z, 080300Z, 080900Z AND 081500Z.// ** WTPQ31 PGUM 071540 *** TCPPQ1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W ADVISORY NUMBER 2 200 AM GUAM LST TUE NOV 8 2005 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W MOVING NORTHWEST AWAY FROM YAP... NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE CURRENTLY IN EFFECT. AT 1 AM GUAM LST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 11.8 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 136.8 DEGREES EAST. THIS IS ABOUT 180 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF YAP 230 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI 245 MILES NORTH-NORTHWEST OF NGULU AND 290 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST TRACK WILL CARRY TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W FARTHER AWAY FROM YAP. THIS MEANS NO SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED ON YAP OR ANY NEIGHBORING ISLANDS. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE 35 MPH. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 23W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY AND MAY BECOME A TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. REPEATING THE 1 AM POSITION...11.8 DEGREES NORTH AND 136.8 DEGREES EAST...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 12 MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH. THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AT 8 AM GUAM LST. $$ AHN ** WTNT80 EGRR 071732 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.11.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 12 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+12 : 8.7N 138.5W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 08.11.2005 8.7N 138.5W WEAK 12UTC 08.11.2005 8.7N 140.4W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 09.11.2005 7.4N 142.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 09.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 48 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+48 : 13.1N 105.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.11.2005 13.1N 105.8W WEAK 00UTC 10.11.2005 13.9N 108.5W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 10.11.2005 14.7N 110.9W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 11.11.2005 15.2N 113.3W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 11.11.2005 15.2N 115.1W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 12.11.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 071732