** WTSR20 WSSS 061800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTIO20 FMEE 070018 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 89.5E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT UNDER DEEP CONVECTION.. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/07 AT 12 UTC: 12.6S / 87.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 00 UTC: 13.3S / 86.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY CROSSED 90E AND QUIT AUSTRALIAN AREA TO ENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVELY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN, ITS QUICKLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK WOULD SHIP IT OVER AREA WITH COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 60 TO 72 HOURS.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 070020 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 77.1E (EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/07 AT 12 UTC: 9.2S / 76.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 00 UTC: 9.5S / 76.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSTRAINED BY UNFAVORBLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY.= ** WTIO30 FMEE 070021 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 89.5E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 180 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/07 12 UTC: 12.6S/87.8E, MAX WIND=040KT . 24H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 13.3S/86.4E, MAX WIND=050KT . 36H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 14.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=040KT . 48H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 14.7S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 15.4S/79.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PROFITS BY A GOOD POLARWARD OUTFLOW. 1159 QUIKSCAT SWAT REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CENTER NOW LOCATED UNDER THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BUT ITS RAPID SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK WOULD SHIP IT OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LESS ENERGETICS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.= ** WTIO21 FMEE 070018 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 07/11/2005 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 001/04 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 07/11/2005 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 4 995 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 11.8S / 89.5E (ONZE DEGRES HUIT SUD ET QUATRE-VINGT-NEUF DEGRES CINQ EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-SUD-OUEST 12 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 120 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 220 MN DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST. GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 100 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE, S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 120 MN DANS LE QUADRANT SUD-EST, ATTEIGNANT LOCALEMENT LE COUP DE VENT 35/40 KT ET MER FORTE A TRES FORTE DANS LE QUADRANT NORD-OUEST SOUS LA CONVECTION. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 07/11/2005 A 12 UTC: 12.6S / 87.8E, VENT MAX = 40 KT. A 24H POUR LE 08/11/2005 A 00 UTC: 13.3S / 86.4E, VENT MAX = 50 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME A QUITTE LA ZONE AUSTRALIENNE ET VIENT D'ENTRER DANS LE SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN. L'ENVIRONNEMENT DEVIENT FAVORABLE ET LE SYSTEME DEVRAIT CONTINUER DE S'INTENSIFIER PROGRESSIVEMENT DURANT LES 24 PROCHAINES HEURES. SON DEPLACEMENT RAPIDE VERS LE SUD-OUEST DEVRAIT LE CONDUIRE AU-DELA VERS DES EAUX PLUS FROIDES QUI COMMENCERONT A L'AFFAIBLIR. IL EST PREVU SE DISSIPER D'ICI 60 A 72 HEURES. . ** WTIO20 FMEE 070018 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 001/04 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 995 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 89.5E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-SOUTH-WEST 12 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 120 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 220 NM IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30 KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 100 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 120 NM IN THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT, LOCALLY REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS 35/40 KT AND ROUGH TO VERY ROUGH SEAS IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT UNDER DEEP CONVECTION.. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/07 AT 12 UTC: 12.6S / 87.8E, MAX WIND = 40 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 00 UTC: 13.3S / 86.4E, MAX WIND = 50 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY CROSSED 90E AND QUIT AUSTRALIAN AREA TO ENTER IN THE SOUTHWESTERN INDIAN OCEAN. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOME FAVORABLE AND SYSTEM IS EXPECTED PROGRESSIVELY INTENSIFYING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THEN, ITS QUICKLY SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK WOULD SHIP IT OVER AREA WITH COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE UNFAVORABLE FOR INTENSIFICATION. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE WITHIN 60 TO 72 HOURS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 070022 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 77.1E (EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/07 12 UTC: 09.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT . 24H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 09.5S/76.3E, MAX WIND=030KT . 36H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 09.8S/76.1E, MAX WIND=025KT . 48H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 10.3S/75.9E, MAX WIND=025KT . 60H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 11.4S/74.9E, MAX WIND=025KT . 72H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: 12.2S/73.1E, MAX WIND=025KT . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN DESPITE SOME DISCONTINUITY (CF INDOEX IMAGERY SINCE 1800 UTC AND MICRO-WAVES AQUA-1 AT 2016UTC IMAGERY). SINCE 22UTC, CURVED BAND HEAD SEEMS TO BE CONSTRAINED BY AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH IS FORECASTED GROWING STRONGER WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS POOR.= ** WTIO20 FMEE 070020 *** SECURITE NEAR GALE WARNING FOR METAREA VIII (S) ISSUED BY METEO-FRANCE/TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE/LA REUNION 07/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. WARNING NUMBER: 002/03 (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 10 MINUTES AVERAGE WIND SPEED IN KNOTS (KT) (WIND GUSTS AT SEA MAY BE ABOUT 40% STRONGER THAN THE AVERAGED WIND). MINIMUM SEAS LEVEL PRESSURE IN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (INDICATIVE FIGURE). NEAR GALE WARNING BEGINNING OF VALIDITY: MONDAY 07/11/2005 AT 0000 UTC. PHENOMENON: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 998 HPA POSITION: WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 77.1E (EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) AT 0000 UTC MOVEMENT: WEST-NORTH-WEST 6 KT THREAT AREAS: SQUALLY WEATHER EXISTS WITHIN 180 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER, EXTENDING UP TO 400 NM IN THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS 30KT AND ROUGH SEAS WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF THE CENTER EXTENDING UP TO 45 NM IN THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. STRONG GUSTS UNDER SQUALLS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY: 12H, VALID 2005/11/07 AT 12 UTC: 9.2S / 76.7E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. 24H, VALID 2005/11/08 AT 00 UTC: 9.5S / 76.3E, MAX WIND = 30 KT. OTHER INFORMATIONS: SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED DURING THE RECENT PAST HOURS. IT IS EXPECTED TO BE CONSTRAINED BY UNFAVORBLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS AND WEAKENING GRADUALLY. . ** WTIO21 FMEE 070020 *** METEO-FRANCE/CENTRE DES CYCLONES TROPICAUX DE LA REUNION BMS MARINE LE 07/11/2005 A 0000 UTC. NUMERO: 002/03 (SUD-OUEST DE L'OCEAN INDIEN) VITESSES DU VENT MOYEN SUR 10 MINUTES EN NOEUDS (KT) (LES RAFALES SUR MER PEUVENT EXCEDER D'ENVIRON 40% LA VALEUR DU VENT MOYEN). PRESSION MINIMALE AU NIVEAU DE LA MER EN HECTOPASCALS (HPA) (VALEUR INDICATIVE). AVIS DE GRAND FRAIS DEBUT DE VALIDITE: LUNDI 07/11/2005 A 0000 UTC. PHENOMENE: DEPRESSION TROPICALE 3 998 HPA POSITION: DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU POINT 8.9S / 77.1E (HUIT DEGRES NEUF SUD ET SOIXANTE-DIX-SEPT DEGRES UN EST) A 0000 UTC DEPLACEMENT: OUEST-NORD-OUEST 6 KT ZONES MENACEES: TEMPS A GRAIN DANS UN RAYON DE 180 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 400 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE EST GRAND FRAIS 30 KT ET MER FORTE DANS UN RAYON DE 30 MN AUTOUR DU CENTRE S'ETENDANT JUSQU'A 45 MN DANS LE DEMI-CERCLE SUD. FORTES RAFALES SOUS GRAINS. PREVISIONS: POSITION ET INTENSITE PREVUES: A 12H POUR LE 07/11/2005 A 12 UTC: 9.2S / 76.7E, VENT MAX = 30 KT. A 24H POUR LE 08/11/2005 A 00 UTC: 9.5S / 76.3E, VENT MAX = 30 KT. INDICATIONS COMPLEMENTAIRES: LE SYSTEME S'EST INTENSIFIE DURANT LES DERNIERES HEURES. IL EST PREVU RENCONTRER DES CONDITIONS DEFAVORABLES D'ICI 12 A 24 HEURES ET S'AFFAIBLIR PROGRESSIVEMENT. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 070021 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 1/4/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 4 2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 11.8S / 89.5E (ELEVEN DECIMAL EIGHT DEGREES SOUTH AND EIGHTY NINE DECIMAL FIVE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/24 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 995 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 180 SE: 220 SO: 180 NO: 180 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/07 12 UTC: 12.6S/87.8E, MAX WIND=040KT . 24H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 13.3S/86.4E, MAX WIND=050KT . 36H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 14.1S/84.6E, MAX WIND=040KT . 48H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 14.7S/82.1E, MAX WIND=030KT , DISSIPATING. 60H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 15.4S/79.1E, MAX WIND=025KT , DISSIPATING. 72H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: DISSIPATED. 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5 VERTICAL WINDSHEAR HAS WEAKENED AND SYSTEM IS UNDERGOING A GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND PROFITS BY A GOOD POLARWARD OUTFLOW. 1159 QUIKSCAT SWAT REVEALS A WELL DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH CENTER NOW LOCATED UNDER THE MAIN DEEP CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING GRADUALLY BUT ITS RAPID SOUTHWESTWARDS TRACK WOULD SHIP IT OVER COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND LESS ENERGETICS ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS. . ** WTIO30 FMEE 070022 *** RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTRE / LA REUNION TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN) 0.A WARNING NUMBER : 2/3/20052006 1.A TROPICAL DEPRESSION 3 2.A POSITION 2005/11/07 AT 0000 UTC : WITHIN 30 NM RADIUS OF POINT 8.9S / 77.1E (EIGHT DECIMAL NINE DEGREES SOUTH AND SEVENTY SEVEN DECIMAL ONE DEGREES EAST) 3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS : 2.5/2.5 /D 0.5/12 H 4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE : 998 HPA 5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN) : 30 KT 6.A EXTENSION OF WINDS BY QUADRANTS (KM): 30 KT NE: 050 SE: 080 SO: 080 NO: 050 7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBARE (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1008 HPA / 900 KM 8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: MEDIUM 1.B FORECASTS: 12H: 2005/11/07 12 UTC: 09.2S/76.7E, MAX WIND=030KT . 24H: 2005/11/08 00 UTC: 09.5S/76.3E, MAX WIND=030KT . 36H: 2005/11/08 12 UTC: 09.8S/76.1E, MAX WIND=025KT . 48H: 2005/11/09 00 UTC: 10.3S/75.9E, MAX WIND=025KT . 60H: 2005/11/09 12 UTC: 11.4S/74.9E, MAX WIND=025KT . 72H: 2005/11/10 00 UTC: 12.2S/73.1E, MAX WIND=025KT . 2.B OTHER INFORMATIONS: T=CI=2.5- DEEP CONVECTION HAS ORGANIZED IN CURVED BAND PATTERN DESPITE SOME DISCONTINUITY (CF INDOEX IMAGERY SINCE 1800 UTC AND MICRO-WAVES AQUA-1 AT 2016UTC IMAGERY). SINCE 22UTC, CURVED BAND HEAD SEEMS TO BE CONSTRAINED BY AN EASTERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR WHICH IS FORECASTED GROWING STRONGER WITHIN 18 TO 24 HOURS. POTENTIAL FOR INTENSIFICATION REMAINS POOR. . ** WTXS21 PGTW 070200 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 070151ZNOV05// RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 165 NM RADIUS OF 9.8S 77.3E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 070000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 77.3E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.9S 78.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.8S 77.3E, APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO GARCIA. CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED OVER A BROAD, PRE- EXISTING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE DISTURBANCE IS UNDER A RIDGE AXIS WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND ANIMATED ENHANCED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. DUE TO A REDUCTION IN SHEAR AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T1.5 TO T2.5, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD. 3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 080151Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 91.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 91.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.4S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.5S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.0S 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 91.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 91.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 91.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.4S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.5S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.0S 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 91.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 062100 RRB *** VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.5S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.0S 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 91.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 062100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 91.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 91.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.4S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTXS31 PGTW 062100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 003 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 061800Z --- NEAR 11.7S 91.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 11.7S 91.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 12.4S 89.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 13.4S 87.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 080600Z --- 14.5S 85.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 230 DEG/ 12 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 081800Z --- 16.0S 83.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 062100Z POSITION NEAR 11.9S 91.1E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 310 NM WEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 061800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z AND 072100Z.// ** WTNT80 EGRR 070523 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 07.11.2005 NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+60 : 12.2N 105.8W VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 12UTC 09.11.2005 12.2N 105.8W WEAK 00UTC 10.11.2005 12.5N 109.2W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 10.11.2005 13.3N 110.1W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 11.11.2005 14.3N 113.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 12UTC 11.11.2005 15.0N 113.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE 00UTC 12.11.2005 15.1N 115.6W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 12UTC 12.11.2005 15.3N 117.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY 00UTC 13.11.2005 15.2N 119.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 070523