** WTAU06 APRF 051853 *** IDW23200 40:3:2:24:09S096E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1842UTC 5 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude nine decimal seven south [9.7S] Longitude ninety six decimal one east [96.1E] Recent movement : southwest at 9 knots. Maximum winds : 30 knots. Central pressure : 1002 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 50 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 06 November: within 40 nautical miles of 10.7S 94.6E 995 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 06 November: within 70 nautical miles of 11.6S 92.7E 992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 06 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTAU06 APRF 051853 *** IDW23200 40:3:2:24:09S096E999:11:00 SECURITE HIGH SEAS WEATHER WARNING FOR METAREA 10 ISSUED BY THE AUSTRALIAN BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE PERTH AT 1842UTC 5 NOVEMBER 2005 GALE WARNING FOR THE WESTERN AREA Please be aware, wind gusts can be a further 40 percent stronger than the averages given here, and maximum waves may be up to twice the height. SITUATION At 1800UTC Tropical Low located within 30 nautical miles of Latitude nine decimal seven south [9.7S] Longitude ninety six decimal one east [96.1E] Recent movement : southwest at 9 knots. Maximum winds : 30 knots. Central pressure : 1002 hPa. AREA AFFECTED Within 50 nautical miles of the centre, extending to 120 nautical miles in southern quadrants. FORECAST Low may develop into a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours causing clockwise winds 30/40 knots, rough to very rough seas and moderate swell. At 0600UTC 06 November: within 40 nautical miles of 10.7S 94.6E 995 hPa. Winds to 30 knots near centre. At 1800UTC 06 November: within 70 nautical miles of 11.6S 92.7E 992 hPa. Winds to 40 knots near centre. Next warning issued by 0100 UTC 06 November 2005. WEATHER PERTH ** WTXS31 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721Z NOV 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 96.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 96.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 11.3S 94.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.6S 92.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.6S 90.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.5S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 95.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050721Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 052100 RRA *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721Z NOV 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 96.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 96.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 11.3S 94.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.6S 92.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.6S 90.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT ** WTXS31 PGTW 052100 RRB *** 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.5S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 95.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050721Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721Z NOV 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 96.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 96.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 11.3S 94.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.6S 92.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.6S 90.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.5S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 95.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050721Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.// ** WTXS31 PGTW 052100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// REF/A/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/050721Z NOV 05// AMPN/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02S WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 051800Z --- NEAR 10.0S 96.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 230 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT REPEAT POSIT: 10.0S 96.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 11.3S 94.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 12 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 061800Z --- 12.6S 92.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 070600Z --- 13.6S 90.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 13 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 071800Z --- 14.5S 87.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 052100Z POSITION NEAR 10.3S 95.8E. TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 02S (NONAME), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE COCOS ISLANDS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. HOWEVER, TC 02S IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHWESTWARD AND INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES TOWARD A LOWER-SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND REMAINS OVER FAVORABLE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THIS WARNING SUPERSEDES AND CANCELS REF A, NAVPACMETOCCEN 050721Z NOV 05 TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 050730). MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 051800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 060900Z AND 062100Z.//