** WTIN20 DEMS 050630 ***


            TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

            ------------------------

DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 05-11-2005     (.) 

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF 

BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600

UTC (.)



CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PART OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH WEST 

BAY OF BENGAL, COMORIN AREA, SOUTHEAST ARABIAN AND ANDAMAN SEA  (.) 



RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG  13.0 DEG. NORTH OVER INDIAN 

REGION (.)










** WTXS21 PGTW 050730 ***
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT/050721ZNOV2005//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 150
NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1S 97.4E TO 10.5S 93.0E WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUM-
BERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE
ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 050530Z INDICATES
THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 97.2E. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.4S 98.4E
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4S 97.2E, APPROXIMATELY 225 NM NORTH OF THE
COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CON-
VECTION ON THE WESTERN SIDE. A 042342Z QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES A WELL
DEFINED LLCC WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS ON THE WESTERN HALF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOOD POLEWARD OUT-
FLOW. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTEN-
TIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO GOOD.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
060730Z.//




** WTXS21 PGTW 050730 ***
ALERT      ATCF MIL 92X XXX 051105060000
2005110506
  -8.1  97.4
 -10.5  93.0
150
  -8.4  97.2
050730
0511050721
1
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 050721Z NOV 05//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.1S 97.4E TO 10.5S 93.0E WITH
IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY IS
SUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.  WINDS
IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 30 TO 35 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
050530Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 8.4S
97.2E.  THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 060730Z.
//
SH, 92, 2005110312,   , BEST,   0,  57S,  965E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
SH, 92, 2005110318,   , BEST,   0,  61S,  969E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
SH, 92, 2005110400,   , BEST,   0,  65S,  973E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
SH, 92, 2005110406,   , BEST,   0,  70S,  975E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
SH, 92, 2005110412,   , BEST,   0,  74S,  976E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
SH, 92, 2005110418,   , BEST,   0,  78S,  976E,  15, 1006, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
SH, 92, 2005110500,   , BEST,   0,  81S,  974E,  20, 1004, DB,   0,    ,    0,    0,    0,    0,
SH, 92, 2005110506,   , BEST,   0,  84S,  972E,  30, 1000, DB,  34, NEQ,    0,    0,    0,    0, 1006,  150,  45,   0,   0,   S,   0,    ,   0,   0,     INVEST, S,