** WTPQ20 BABJ 020600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 020600 UTC 00HR 18.8N 105.6E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 260KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 19.8N 103.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020600 *** WARNING 020600. WARNING VALID 030600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 998 HPA AT 18.8N 105.9E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING NORTHWEST 11 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 100 MILES SOUTHEAST SEMICIRCLE AND 60 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 19.5N 103.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1006 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 020600UTC 18.8N 105.9E FAIR MOVE NW 11KT PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 100NM SOUTHEAST 60NM NORTHWEST FORECAST 24HF 030600UTC 19.5N 103.0E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.15 FOR TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020600 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TD WITHIN 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 1.5 AFTER 24 HOURS. 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL ON TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 12 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 020600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 5 NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK ANALYSIS POSITION 020600UTC 18.8N 105.9E MOVEMENT NW 11KT PRES/VMAX 998HPA 35KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 030600UTC 20.0N 103.5E WITHIN 0NM PRES 1000HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 020900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 019 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 020600Z --- NEAR 18.9N 105.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 18.9N 105.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 20.4N 104.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 21.9N 103.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 020900Z POSITION NEAR 19.3N 105.5E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125 NM SOUTH OF HANOI, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 020600Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 021500Z, 022100Z AND 030300Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020600 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (106.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 020900 UTC 00HR 19.3N 105.5E 995HPA 20M/S 30KTS 260KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 20.0N 102.7E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 18.8N 105.9E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 19.3N 102.9E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 020900UTC 18.8N 105.9E FAIR MOVE NW 08KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 80NM FORECAST 24HF 030900UTC 19.3N 102.9E 80NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTSS20 VHHH 021045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020900 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 35 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND.