** WTPQ20 BABJ 012200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 012200 UTC 00HR 17.8N 107.3E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 011800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.13 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) AT 18 UTC IS VALID TILL 42 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 012245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 012100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (17.7 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (104.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 012300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 012300 UTC 00HR 17.9N 107.0E 975HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSR20 WSSS 011800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 020000 UTC 00HR 17.9N 106.8E 980HPA 30M/S 30KTS 300KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H P+24HR 19.2N 104.3E 996HPA 18M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 020000 *** WARNING 020000. WARNING VALID 030000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. GALE WARNING. TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) DOWNGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 990 HPA AT 17.9N 106.6E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 80 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 18.6N 104.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 998 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 19.1N 102.0E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) DOWNGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 020000UTC 17.9N 106.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 040KT 30KT 140NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 030000UTC 18.6N 104.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 998HPA MXWD 035KT 48HF 040000UTC 19.1N 102.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 020000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.14 FOR TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 020000 UTC IS FAIR. TS WILL DECELERATE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS DECELERATE. TS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. TS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 2.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 020100 UTC 00HR 18.0N 106.7E 985HPA 27M/S 30KTS 290KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 020000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (103.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) HAS WEAKENED INTO A TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 HECTOPASCALS. AT 020000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (17.9 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 45 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (103.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 020200 UTC 00HR 18.1N 106.6E 985HPA 27M/S 30KTS 290KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 020300 UTC 00HR 18.2N 106.4E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 270KM 50KTS 60KM P12HR NW 20KM/H= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 020300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 020300UTC 18.2N 106.2E FAIR MOVE WNW 11KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT 30KT 140NM EAST 80NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 030300UTC 18.9N 103.2E 80NM 70% MOVE W 07KT PRES 1000HPA MXWD 035KT 45HF 040000UTC 19.1N 102.0E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 020400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 020400 UTC 00HR 18.2N 106.1E 990HPA 23M/S 30KTS 260KM P12HR WNW 20KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (103.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 020445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 020300 UTC, TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 150 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (20.5 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (103.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTNT80 EGRR 020549 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 02.11.2005 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OF FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 020549 ** WTIN20 DEMS 020550 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE NEW DELHI 02-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER SOUTH BAY OF BENGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.)