** WTJP21 RJTD 011800 ***
WARNING 011800.

WARNING VALID 021800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 985 HPA

AT 17.3N 107.8E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 17.8N 105.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 17.8N 102.9E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1002 HPA.

BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.



JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=




** WTPQ20 RJTD 011800 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME  STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521)

ANALYSIS

PSTN  011800UTC 17.3N 107.8E FAIR

MOVE  NW 10KT

PRES  985HPA

MXWD  050KT

30KT  160NM EAST 100NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF  021800UTC 17.8N 105.4E 80NM 70%

MOVE  W SLOWLY

PRES  996HPA

MXWD  035KT

48HF  031800UTC 17.8N 102.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =




** WTPQ20 BABJ 011800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011800 UTC

00HR 17.1N 108.0E 970HPA 33M/S

30KTS 350KM

50KTS 100KM

P12HR NW 15KM/H

P+24HR 18.4N 105.4E 995HPA 20M/S

P+48HR 19.3N 102.7E 1000HPA 12M/S=




** WTPQ30 RJTD 011800 ***


RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.11 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521)

5.REMARKS

  GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(GLOBAL MODEL)  ON STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 12 HOURS.=




** WTPQ30 RJTD 011800 ***


RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.12 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521)

5.REMARKS

  GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL)  ON STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) AT 12 UTC IS VALID TILL 18 HOURS.=




** WTPQ20 BABJ 011900 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011900 UTC

00HR 17.3N 108.0E 970HPA 33M/S

30KTS 350KM

50KTS 100KM

P12HR NW 15KM/H=






** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 ***


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING



AT 011800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH 

CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 

NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 

N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) AND IS 

FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 

HOURS.



MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC 

ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N) 

ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC 

DISSIPATED OVER LAND.








** WTSS20 VHHH 011945 ***


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING



AT 011800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH

CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60

NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1

N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) AND IS

FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24

HOURS.



MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC

ONE EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (18.7 N)

ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 35 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC

DISSIPATED OVER LAND.




** WTPQ20 BABJ 012000 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 012000 UTC

00HR 17.5N 107.9E 970HPA 33M/S

30KTS 350KM

50KTS 100KM

P12HR NW 15KM/H=






** WTPQ20 BABJ 012100 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 012100 UTC

00HR 17.7N 107.5E 975HPA 30M/S

30KTS 300KM

50KTS 80KM

P12HR NW 20KM/H

P+24HR 18.9N 104.8E 995HPA 18M/S=




** WTPQ20 RJTD 012100 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME  STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521)

ANALYSIS

PSTN  012100UTC 17.7N 107.3E FAIR

MOVE  NW 10KT

PRES  985HPA

MXWD  050KT

30KT  160NM EAST 100NM WEST

FORECAST

24HF  022100UTC 18.0N 105.1E 80NM 70%

MOVE  W SLOWLY

PRES  996HPA

MXWD  035KT

45HF  031800UTC 17.8N 102.9E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =




** WTJP31 RJTD 012100 ***
WARNING 012100.

WARNING VALID 022100.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 985 HPA

AT 17.7N 107.3E GULF OF TONKIN MOVING NORTHWEST 10 KNOTS.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 100 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 022100UTC AT 18.0N 105.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.



JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=