** WTSR20 WSSS 010600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 011200 *** WARNING 011200. WARNING VALID 021200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 980 HPA AT 16.4N 108.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 07 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 17.4N 106.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 17.9N 103.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 011200UTC 16.4N 108.5E FAIR MOVE NW 07KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 021200UTC 17.4N 106.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 48HF 031200UTC 17.9N 103.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011200 UTC 00HR 16.3N 108.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.8N 106.0E 990HPA 23M/S P+48HR 18.4N 103.2E 998HPA 15M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 011500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 016 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 011200Z --- NEAR 16.3N 108.4E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 16.3N 108.4E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.4N 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.1N 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.5N 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 18.9N 104.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 011500Z POSITION NEAR 16.6N 108.1E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 50 NM EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 011200Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 012100Z, 020300Z, 020900Z AND 021500Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011300 UTC 00HR 16.4N 108.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011200 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (16.3 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (108.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (18.0 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (103.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041200 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011400 UTC 00HR 16.6N 108.3E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011500 UTC 00HR 16.7N 108.2E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 011500 *** WARNING 011500. WARNING VALID 021500. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 980 HPA AT 16.6N 108.2E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021500UTC AT 17.5N 105.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 011500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 011500UTC 16.6N 108.2E FAIR MOVE NW 06KT PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 021500UTC 17.5N 105.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 45HF 031200UTC 17.9N 103.2E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011600 UTC 00HR 16.8N 108.1E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTNT80 EGRR 011712 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 01.11.2005 NO TROPICAL CYCLONES ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA IN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 011712 ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (103.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 011500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 50 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (103.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 041500 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011700 UTC 00HR 16.8N 108.1E 970HPA 33M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H=