** WTIN20 DEMS 010620 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 01-11-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH BAY OF BANGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 14.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010600 UTC 00HR 15.7N 108.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H P+24HR 16.6N 107.0E 985HPA 25M/S P+48HR 18.3N 104.0E 996HPA 18M/S P+72HR 20.8N 102.8E 1002HPA 12M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 010600 *** WARNING 010600. WARNING VALID 020600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 970 HPA AT 16.0N 108.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 12 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 160 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 17.2N 106.7E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 990 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 17.8N 103.7E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1002 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 010600UTC 16.0N 108.9E FAIR MOVE WNW 12KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 160NM FORECAST 24HF 020600UTC 17.2N 106.7E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 990HPA MXWD 045KT 48HF 030600UTC 17.8N 103.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 8 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010600 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED DOWN TO TS WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL WEAKEN BECAUSE LANDFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 9 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) AT 00 UTC IS VALID TILL 30 HOURS.= ** WTKO20 RKSL 010600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 4 NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK ANALYSIS POSITION 010600UTC 16.0N 108.9E MOVEMENT WNW 12KT PRES/VMAX 970HPA 60KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 020600UTC 17.4N 106.4E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 985HPA 45KT 48HR POSITION 030600UTC 18.7N 103.8E WITHIN 0NM PRES 996HPA KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTPN31 PGTW 010900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010600Z --- NEAR 15.8N 108.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 305 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.8N 108.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.0N 107.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.9N 106.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.5N 104.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 18.7N 103.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010900Z POSITION NEAR 16.1N 108.5E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 90 NM EAST-SOUTH- EAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010600Z IS 24 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 011500Z, 012100Z, 020300Z AND 020900Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (104.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010600 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (106.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (18.8 N) ONE ZERO FOUR POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (104.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 40 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040600 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010700 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010700 UTC 00HR 15.8N 108.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010800 UTC 00HR 16.0N 108.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010900 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010900 UTC 00HR 16.1N 108.7E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H P+24HR 17.6N 106.2E 988HPA 25M/S P+48HR 18.6N 103.3E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP31 RJTD 010900 *** WARNING 010900. WARNING VALID 020900. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 975 HPA AT 16.2N 108.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 10 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 50 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES EAST SEMICIRCLE AND 120 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020900UTC AT 17.3N 106.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 010900UTC 16.2N 108.7E FAIR MOVE WNW 10KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 50NM 30KT 180NM EAST 120NM WEST FORECAST 24HF 020900UTC 17.3N 106.4E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 992HPA MXWD 045KT 45HF 030600UTC 17.8N 103.7E 150NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011000 UTC 00HR 16.1N 108.6E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO.10 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 5.REMARKS GUIDANCE FOR FORECAST BY NUMERICAL MODEL(TYPHOON MODEL) ON STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) AT 06 UTC IS VALID TILL 18 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTSS20 VHHH 011045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010900 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (108.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 8 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (17.8 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (106.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (18.9 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (103.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040900 UTC DISSIPATED OVER LAND. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 011100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 011100 UTC 00HR 16.2N 108.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 15KM/H=