** WTSR20 WSSS 311800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010000 UTC 00HR 15.3N 110.0E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 16.5N 108.0E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 18.2N 105.8E 990HPA 23M/S P+72HR 20.2N 103.9E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTJP21 RJTD 010000 *** WARNING 010000. WARNING VALID 020000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 970 HPA AT 15.4N 110.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 06 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 16.9N 108.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 18.3N 106.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 040000UTC AT 19.6N 103.5E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 1004 HPA. BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 010000UTC 15.4N 110.0E FAIR MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM NORTH 170NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 020000UTC 16.9N 108.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 48HF 030000UTC 18.3N 106.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 72HF 040000UTC 19.6N 103.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ30 RJTD 010000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 7 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 010000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 3.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010100 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010100 UTC 00HR 15.4N 109.9E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 010000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (103.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) HAS WEAKENED INTO A SEVERE TROPICAL STORM WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS. AT 010000 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE SIX POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (16.6 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (108.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (18.2 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (105.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040000 UTC ONE NINE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (19.4 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (103.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010200 UTC 00HR 15.4N 109.8E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTPN31 PGTW 010300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 014 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 010000Z --- NEAR 15.1N 109.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 290 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 15.1N 109.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 15.7N 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 16.4N 107.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 17.3N 105.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 18.1N 104.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 20.8N 102.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 010300Z POSITION NEAR 15.2N 109.6E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 155 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 010000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 010900Z, 011500Z, 012100Z AND 020300Z.// ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010300 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010300 UTC 00HR 15.6N 109.5E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTJP31 RJTD 010300 *** WARNING 010300. WARNING VALID 020300. STORM WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 970 HPA AT 15.6N 109.6E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020300UTC AT 17.1N 107.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 010300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 010300UTC 15.6N 109.6E FAIR MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 230NM NORTH 170NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 020300UTC 17.1N 107.9E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 45HF 030000UTC 18.3N 106.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT 69HF 040000UTC 19.6N 103.5E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010400 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010400 UTC 00HR 15.6N 109.4E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H= ** WTSS20 VHHH 010445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (103.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 010445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 010300 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (15.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (109.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST AT ABOUT 6 KNOTS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (17.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (18.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 040300 UTC ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) ONE ZERO THREE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (103.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 25 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 010526 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 01.11.2005 NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 010526 ** WTPQ20 BABJ 010500 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 010500 UTC 00HR 15.6N 109.1E 970HPA 35M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H=