** WTNT80 EGRR 311801 ***


 MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC      



 AND ATLANTIC                                        



             GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 31.10.2005

  

 

   NO TROPICAL STORMS ARE ANALYSED OR EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

   DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS.      

                                                                   



 THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

 RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

 AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





 MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



 TOO 311801




** WTJP21 RJTD 311800 ***
WARNING 311800.

WARNING VALID 011800.

WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) DOWNGRADED FROM TYPHOON 970

HPA

AT 15.1N 110.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 16.4N 108.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 021800UTC AT 17.5N 107.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

992 HPA, MAX WINDS 45 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 031800UTC AT 19.0N 105.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

1000 HPA.

BECOMING TROPICAL DEPRESSION.



JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=




** WTPQ20 RJTD 311800 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME  STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) DOWNGRADED FROM TY

ANALYSIS

PSTN  311800UTC 15.1N 110.7E FAIR

MOVE  WNW SLOWLY

PRES  970HPA

MXWD  060KT

50KT  60NM

30KT  230NM NORTH 170NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF  011800UTC 16.4N 108.8E 80NM 70%

MOVE  WNW SLOWLY

PRES  980HPA

MXWD  055KT

48HF  021800UTC 17.5N 107.1E 150NM 70%

MOVE  WNW SLOWLY

PRES  992HPA

MXWD  045KT

72HF  031800UTC 19.0N 105.0E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =




** WTPQ20 BABJ 311800 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 311800 UTC

00HR 15.0N 110.9E 970HPA 35M/S

30KTS 300KM

50KTS 100KM

P12HR NW 10KM/H

P+24HR 16.4N 108.8E 980HPA 30M/S

P+48HR 18.2N 106.6E 990HPA 23M/S

P+72HR 19.6N 104.4E 998HPA 18M/S=




** WTSS20 VHHH 311945 ***


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING



AT 311800 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 

970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 

ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO 

POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN 

AND MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC 

ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N) 

ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC 

ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N) 

ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC 

TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N) 

ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.








** WTSS20 VHHH 311945 ***


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING



AT 311800 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE

970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF

ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO

POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (110.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN

AND MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC

ONE SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (17.6 N)

ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021800 UTC

ONE NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (19.5 N)

ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031800 UTC

TWO ONE POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (21.4 N)

ONE ZERO FIVE POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (105.4 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.




** WTJP31 RJTD 312100 ***
WARNING 312100.

WARNING VALID 012100.

STORM WARNING.

SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 970 HPA

AT 15.2N 110.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY.

POSITION FAIR.

MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.

RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 230 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 170 MILES

ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST POSITION FOR 012100UTC AT 16.4N 108.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS

OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE.

980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER.



JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=




** WTPQ20 RJTD 312100 ***
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY

NAME  STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521)

ANALYSIS

PSTN  312100UTC 15.2N 110.5E FAIR

MOVE  WNW SLOWLY

PRES  970HPA

MXWD  060KT

50KT  60NM

30KT  230NM NORTH 170NM SOUTH

FORECAST

24HF  012100UTC 16.4N 108.6E 80NM 70%

MOVE  WNW SLOWLY

PRES  980HPA

MXWD  055KT

45HF  021800UTC 17.5N 107.1E 150NM 70%

MOVE  WNW SLOWLY

PRES  992HPA

MXWD  045KT

69HF  031800UTC 19.0N 105.0E 220NM 70% TROPICAL DEPRESSION =




** WTPQ20 BABJ 312100 ***
SUBJECTIVE FORECAST

TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 312100 UTC

00HR 15.0N 110.7E 970HPA 35M/S

30KTS 300KM

50KTS 100KM

P12HR NW 10KM/H

P+24HR 16.4N 108.5E 980HPA 30M/S=




** WTSS20 VHHH 312245 ***


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING



AT 312100 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 

970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF 

ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO 

POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN

AND MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC 

ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N) 

ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC 

ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) 

ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC 

TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N) 

ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.








** WTSS20 VHHH 312245 ***


TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING



AT 312100 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE

970 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF

ONE FIVE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (15.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO

POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (110.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN

AND MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.



MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS.

RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES.

RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC

ONE SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (16.7 N)

ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (108.4 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 022100 UTC

ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N)

ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.



FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 032100 UTC

TWO ONE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (21.6 N)

ONE ZERO FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (105.2 E)

MAXIMUM WINDS 30 KNOTS.