** WTSR20 WSSS 310600 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 311200 *** WARNING 311200. WARNING VALID 011200. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 965 HPA AT 14.9N 111.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011200UTC AT 16.5N 109.4E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 021200UTC AT 18.1N 107.2E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 985 HPA, MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 031200UTC AT 19.3N 105.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 35 KNOTS. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 311200 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 311200UTC 14.9N 111.0E FAIR MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 011200UTC 16.5N 109.4E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 48HF 021200UTC 18.1N 107.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 72HF 031200UTC 19.3N 105.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 311200 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 311200 UTC 00HR 14.9N 111.2E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 16.2N 109.3E 965HPA 35M/S P+48HR 18.0N 106.8E 980HPA 28M/S P+72HR 19.0N 104.2E 995HPA 18M/S= ** WTPN31 PGTW 311500 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 311200Z --- NEAR 15.0N 111.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0N 111.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 15.5N 110.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 16.2N 109.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 17.2N 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 021200Z --- 18.3N 106.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 20.7N 104.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 23.2N 102.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 311500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1N 110.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 311200Z IS 23 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 312100Z, 010300Z, 010900Z AND 011500Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 311345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311200 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 311345 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311200 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011200 UTC ONE SIX POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (16.1 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (109.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021200 UTC ONE NINE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (19.1 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (107.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031200 UTC TWO ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (21.0 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (105.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTJP31 RJTD 311500 *** WARNING 311500. WARNING VALID 011500. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 965 HPA AT 15.0N 110.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 60 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011500UTC AT 16.8N 109.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 311500 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 311500UTC 15.0N 110.8E FAIR MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 965HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 60NM 30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 011500UTC 16.8N 109.1E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 45HF 021200UTC 18.1N 107.2E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 69HF 031200UTC 19.3N 105.0E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW 06KT PRES 996HPA MXWD 035KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 311645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311500 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 311645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 311500 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (110.8 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 70 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (17.2 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (108.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 021500 UTC ONE NINE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (19.3 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 031500 UTC TWO ONE POINT THREE DEGREES NORTH (21.3 N) ONE ZERO FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (105.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 45 KNOTS.