** WTJP21 RJTD 310600 *** WARNING 310600. WARNING VALID 010600. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 960 HPA AT 14.8N 111.5E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WESTNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010600UTC AT 16.2N 109.8E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020600UTC AT 18.1N 107.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 975 HPA, MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030600UTC AT 18.8N 105.0E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 996 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 310600UTC 14.8N 111.5E GOOD MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 010600UTC 16.2N 109.8E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 020600UTC 18.1N 107.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 72HF 030600UTC 18.8N 105.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310600 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 310600 UTC 00HR 14.8N 111.6E 960HPA 38M/S 30KTS 350KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 15.8N 110.0E 965HPA 35M/S P+48HR 17.5N 107.6E 975HPA 30M/S P+72HR 18.4N 105.2E 985HPA 23M/S= ** WTKO20 RKSL 310600 *** KMA TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 3 NAME TY 0521 KAI-TAK ANALYSIS POSITION 310600UTC 14.8N 111.5E MOVEMENT WNW 3KT PRES/VMAX 960HPA 70KT FORECAST 24HR POSITION 010600UTC 16.2N 109.3E WITHIN 80NM PRES/VMAX 965HPA 62KT 48HR POSITION 020600UTC 18.3N 106.8E WITHIN 135NM PRES/VMAX 975HPA 52KT 72HR POSITION 030600UTC 20.5N 104.5E WITHIN 215NM PRES/VMAX 990HPA 41KT KOREA METEOROLOGICAL ADMINISTRATION. ** WTIN20 DEMS 310712 *** TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ------------------------ DEMS - RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONES NEW DELHI 31-10-2005 (.) TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ARABIAN SEA ) VALID FOR NEXT 24 HOURS ISSUED AT 0600 UTC (.) CONVECTIVE CLOUDS ARE SEEN OVER PARTS OF NORTH AND WEST CENTRAL SOUTH BAY OF BANGAL AND SOUTH ANDAMAN SEA (.) RIDGE LINE AT 200 HPA RUNS ALONG 15.0 DEG NORTH OVER INDIAN REGION (.) ** WTPQ30 RJTD 310600 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 6 FOR TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 310600 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPN31 PGTW 310900 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 011 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310600Z --- NEAR 14.8N 111.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.8N 111.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 15.2N 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010600Z --- 16.0N 109.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 16.9N 108.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020600Z --- 17.9N 106.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.1N 104.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040600Z --- 22.8N 102.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 310900Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 111.3E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310600Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 311500Z, 312100Z, 010300Z AND 010900Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 310745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310600 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 310745 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310600 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (14.7 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (111.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010600 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SEVEN DEGREES NORTH (15.7 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (110.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020600 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (18.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT EIGHT DEGREES EAST (107.8 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030600 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310900 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 310900UTC 14.8N 111.1E GOOD MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 50KT 70NM 30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 010900UTC 16.3N 109.6E 80NM 70% MOVE NW SLOWLY PRES 960HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 020600UTC 18.1N 107.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 69HF 030600UTC 18.8N 105.0E 220NM 70% MOVE W SLOWLY PRES 996HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 310900 *** WARNING 310900. WARNING VALID 010900. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 960 HPA AT 14.8N 111.1E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING WEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 70 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010900UTC AT 16.3N 109.6E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 960 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 311045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310900 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 311045 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310900 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (14.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 210 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010900 UTC ONE SIX POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (16.0 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (109.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020900 UTC ONE NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (19.0 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (107.5 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030900 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (106.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS.