** WTSR20 WSSS 301800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTJP21 RJTD 310000 *** WARNING 310000. WARNING VALID 010000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 950 HPA AT 14.6N 111.8E SOUTH CHINA SEA ALMOST STATIONARY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 180 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 15.7N 110.3E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 950 HPA, MAX WINDS 80 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 17.8N 107.5E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 030000UTC AT 18.6N 105.4E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 994 HPA, MAX WINDS 40 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 310000UTC 14.6N 111.8E GOOD MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 180NM FORECAST 24HF 010000UTC 15.7N 110.3E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 950HPA MXWD 080KT 48HF 020000UTC 17.8N 107.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 030000UTC 18.6N 105.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 310000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 310000 UTC 00HR 14.5N 111.9E 960HPA 40M/S 30KTS 280KM 50KTS 100KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 15.9N 110.0E 950HPA 45M/S P+48HR 17.6N 108.2E 960HPA 40M/S P+72HR 19.2N 106.0E 975HPA 33M/S= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 310000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 5 FOR TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 310000 UTC IS GOOD. TY WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. TY WILL MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST TY WILL KEEP PRESENT INTENSITY FOR NEXT 24 HOURS. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 5.0 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 310145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310000 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 310145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310000 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 310300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 310000Z --- NEAR 14.7N 111.6E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 315 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.7N 111.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 15.4N 110.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 16.1N 110.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 011200Z --- 17.2N 108.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.3N 107.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 08 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.6N 105.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 325 DEG/ 08 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 23.1N 103.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 310300Z POSITION NEAR 14.9N 111.4E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 240 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 310000Z IS 27 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 310900Z, 311500Z, 312100Z AND 010300Z.// ** WTSS20 VHHH 310145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310000 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 310145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310000 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 952 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 80 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (110.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 80 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (18.1 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT THREE DEGREES EAST (108.3 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 70 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030000 UTC TWO ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (20.4 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (106.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT21 KNHC 310245 *** TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 0300Z MON OCT 31 2005 TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 85.3W AT 31/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT...DISSIPATING WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 85.3W AT 31/0300Z AT 31/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 84.9W FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.7N 85.3W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BETA. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT31 KNHC 310246 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005 ...BETA DISSIPATING OVER NICARAGUA... AT 10 PM EST...0300Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 85.3 WEST OR ABOUT 70 MILES... 115 KM...EAST-NORTHEAST OF MANAGUA NICARAGUA. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A WESTWARD TO WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS WOULD TAKE THE REMNANTS OF BETA INTO THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH... 35 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS...AND BETA IS DISSIPATING. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. THE REMNANTS OF BETA ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF NICARAGUA... HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR. ISOLATED MAXIMUM STORM TOTALS OF 25 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. REPEATING THE 10 PM EST POSITION...12.7 N... 85.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 9 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 25 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB. THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON BETA. FORECASTER PASCH $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 310248 *** TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 10 PM EST SUN OCT 30 2005 BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER LAND...AND THE SURFACE CIRCULATION IS DISSIPATING OVER THE ELEVATED TERRAIN OF NICARAGUA. WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO ITS NORTH AND NORTHWEST...THE REMNANT MID- TO LOWER TROPOSPHERIC VORTICITY SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AND ENTER THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC BASIN TOMORROW. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION OVER THAT BASIN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. EVEN THOUGH BETA IS DISSIPATING...THERE IS STILL A THREAT OF ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINS OVER NICARAGUA...HONDURAS...AND EL SALVADOR FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON BETA. SHOULD THE SYSTEM REGENERATE OVER THE EAST PACIFIC...IT WOULD BE ASSIGNED A NEW NUMBER AND/OR NAME. FORECASTER PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0300Z 12.7N 85.3W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 12HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 310306 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN DEPRESION TROPICAL BETA ADVERTENCIA NUMERO 17 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 10 PM EST DOMINGO 30 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA SE ESTA DISIPANDO SOBRE NICARAGUA... A LAS 10 PM EST...0300Z...EL CENTRO DE LA DEPRESION TROPICAL BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 12.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 85.3 OESTE O COMO A 70 MILLAS...115 KM...AL ESTE-NORESTE DE MANAGUA NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH...15 KILOMETROS POR HORA. SE ESPERA UN MOVIMIENTO AL OESTE A OESTE-SUROESTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTO LLEVARIA A LOS REMANENTES DE BETA HASTA LA PARTE ESTE DEL PACIFICO NORTE EL LUNES. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN DISMINUIDO HASTA CERCA DE 25 MPH...35 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES...Y BETA SE ESTA DISIPANDO. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 1002 MILIBARAS...29.50 PULGADAS. SE ESPERA QUE LOS REMANENTES DE BETA PRODUZCAN ACUMULACIONES DE LLUVIA ADICIONALES DE 4 A 8 PULGADAS SOBRE PORCIONES DE NICARAGUA...HONDURAS ...Y EL SALVADOR. TOTALES MAXIMOS AISLADOS DE 25 PULGADAS SON POSIBLES SOBRE NICARAGUA Y HONDURAS. ESTAS LLUVIAS PODRIAN OCASIONAR INUNDACIONES REPENTINAS Y DESLIZAMIENTO DE LODO QUE PODRIAN AMENAZAR VIDAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 10 PM EST...12.7 NORTE... 85.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 9 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...25 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...1002 MB. ESTE ES EL ULTIMO BOLETIN PUBLICO EMITIDO POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES SOBRE BETA. PRONOSTICADOR PASCH $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO ** WTJP31 RJTD 310300 *** WARNING 310300. WARNING VALID 010300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 955 HPA AT 14.8N 111.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION GOOD. MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 75 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 240 MILES NORTH SEMICIRCLE AND 180 MILES ELSEWHERE. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010300UTC AT 16.1N 110.0E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 955 HPA, MAX WINDS 75 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 310300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 310300UTC 14.8N 111.7E GOOD MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 50KT 75NM 30KT 240NM NORTH 180NM SOUTH FORECAST 24HF 010300UTC 16.1N 110.0E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 955HPA MXWD 075KT 45HF 020000UTC 17.8N 107.5E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW 08KT PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 030000UTC 18.6N 105.4E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 994HPA MXWD 040KT = ** WTSS20 VHHH 310445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310300 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 310445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 310300 UTC, TYPHOON KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE FOUR POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (14.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (111.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 75 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 200 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (15.2 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (110.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 75 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE EIGHT POINT FOUR DEGREES NORTH (18.4 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (108.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 030300 UTC TWO ZERO POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (20.6 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT80 EGRR 310505 *** MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 31.10.2005 TROPICAL STORM BETA ANALYSED POSITION : 12.7N 84.5W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL262005 VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY -------------- -------- -------- -------- 00UTC 31.10.2005 12.7N 84.5W WEAK 12UTC 31.10.2005 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK TOO 310505