** WTSR20 WSSS 291800 *** NO STORM WARNING= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 300000UTC 14.0N 112.9E FAIR MOVE N 08KT PRES 975HPA MXWD 060KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 310000UTC 14.7N 112.1E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 48HF 010000UTC 15.8N 110.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 020000UTC 17.1N 108.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP21 RJTD 300000 *** WARNING 300000. WARNING VALID 310000. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 975 HPA AT 14.0N 112.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 60 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310000UTC AT 14.7N 112.1E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 010000UTC AT 15.8N 110.6E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 020000UTC AT 17.1N 108.7E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ30 RJTD 300000 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING REASONING NO. 3 FOR STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 1.GENERAL COMMENTS REASONING OF PROGNOSIS THIS TIME IS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE. POSITION FORECAST IS MAINLY BASED ON NWP AND PERSISTENCY. 2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION NOTHING PARTICULAR TO EXPLAIN. 3.MOTION FORECAST POSITION ACCURACY AT 300000 UTC IS FAIR. STS WILL MOVE AT THE SAME SPEED FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. STS WILL MOVE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. 4.INTENSITY FORECAST STS WILL BE GRADED UP TO TY WITHIN 24 HOURS. STS WILL DEVELOP BECAUSE EYE HAS BECOME DISTINCT. FI-NUMBER WILL BE 4.5 AFTER 24 HOURS.= ** WTPQ20 BABJ 300000 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST TY KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 300000 UTC 00HR 13.9N 112.9E 975HPA 33M/S 30KTS 250KM 50KTS 80KM P12HR NW 10KM/H P+24HR 15.2N 111.8E 960HPA 40M/S P+48HR 16.2N 110.2E 965HPA 38M/S P+72HR 17.2N 108.5E 970HPA 35M/S= ** WTSS20 VHHH 300145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 300145 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 300000 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (13.5 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 60 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310000 UTC ONE THREE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (13.9 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010000 UTC ONE FOUR POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (14.8 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (109.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020000 UTC ONE SIX POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (16.9 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (106.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 300300 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUB/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TYPHOON 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 006 UPGRADED FROM TROPICAL STORM 22W 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 300000Z --- NEAR 14.0N 112.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 360 DEGREES AT 07 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 14.0N 112.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 15.0N 112.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 310000Z --- 15.8N 111.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 311200Z --- 16.5N 110.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 010000Z --- 17.3N 109.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 305 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 020000Z --- 18.8N 106.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 030000Z --- 20.1N 104.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 21.9N 103.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 300300Z POSITION NEAR 14.3N 112.8E. TYPHOON (TY) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 340 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 300000Z IS 19 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300900Z, 301500Z, 302100Z AND 310300Z.// ** WTNT31 KNHC 300244 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 ...HURRICANE BETA HEADING FOR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA WITH 105 MPH WINDS...COULD BECOME STRONGER... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 95 MILES...150 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 45 MILES...75 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE CORE OF BETA NEAR THE COAST OF NICARAGUA EARLY SUNDAY. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE ALREADY AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A DANGEROUS CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 970 MB...28.64 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 25 INCHES. REPEATING THE 11 PM EDT POSITION...13.7 N... 82.8 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 970 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 AM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 AM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 300244 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 0300Z SUN OCT 30 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 82.8W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 85SE 85SW 85NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.7N 82.8W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 82.6W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.6W...INLAND MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.7N 84.7W...INLAND MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.7N 86.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.7N 87.0W...REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 14.0N 88.0W...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z...DISSIPATED OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.7N 82.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 300246 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT BETA IS CURRENTLY INTENSIFYING AND BECOMING DANGEROUS. T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS ARE ON THE UPWARD TREND. IT APPEARS THAT BETA HAS A SMALL EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY DEEP CIRCULAR CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 90 KNOTS AND THERE IS ABOUT 12 HOURS FOR BETA TO FURTHER INTENSIFY TO CATEGORY 3 STATUS BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA EARLY SUNDAY. THEREAFTER...THE HURRICANE SHOULD WEAKEN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD MOTION IS ALREADY IN PLACE AND THIS TURN WAS BRILLIANTLY FORECAST BY THE GFDL AND BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. NOW THAT BETA IS MOVING WESTWARD OR EVEN SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT 4 TO 5 KNOTS...IT IS MORE CERTAIN THAT THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY TRAPPED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF THE DEVELOPING RIDGE. THIS STEERING PATTERN CALLS FOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION UNTIL DISSIPATION. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. EVEN WHEN BETA MOVES INLAND AND BECOMES A WEAKENING CYCLONE...IT COULD STILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINS. SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORECASTER AVILA FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/0300Z 13.7N 82.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 30/1200Z 13.5N 83.6W 100 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 31/0000Z 13.7N 84.7W 60 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/1200Z 13.7N 86.0W 30 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 01/0000Z 13.7N 87.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 02/0000Z 14.0N 88.0W 20 KT...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 300246 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 8PM EDT TUE NOV 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 13.7N 84.7W 48 X X X 48 MHNJ 165N 859W 2 10 3 3 18 13.7N 86.0W 23 5 X 1 29 MNPC 141N 834W 99 X X X 99 13.7N 87.0W 5 18 1 2 26 MNBL 120N 839W 21 1 X X 22 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 2 2 SKSP 126N 817W 8 X X 1 9 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 4 4 MRLM 100N 831W X X X 3 3 MZBZ 175N 883W X 1 5 7 13 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 5 5 MGPB 157N 886W X 4 9 5 18 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 3 3 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 8PM SUN TO 8AM MON C FROM 8AM MON TO 8PM MON D FROM 8PM MON TO 8PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 8PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 300256 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 13 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 11 PM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL HURACAN BETA DIRIGIENDOSE A LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA WITH VIENTOS DE 105 MPH...PODRIAN TORNARSE MAS FUERTES... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA ESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE BLUEFIELDS HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...Y LAS ISLAS ADYACENTES. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS...Y PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA AL SUR DE BLUEFIELDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON AL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUYENDO LA CEIBA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. - PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 11 PM EDT...0300Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.7 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.8 OESTE COMO A 95 MILLAS...150 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS Y COMO A 45 MILLAS...75 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE CONTINUAR POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBERA LLEVAR AL CENTRO DE BETA CERCA DE LA COSTA DE NICARAGUA TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. BANDAS DE LLUVIA ASOCIADAS CON EL HURACAN YA HAN COMENZADO A AFECTAR PORCIONES DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA. LOS DATOS DEL SATELITE SUGIEREN QUE LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS HAN AUMENTADO A CERCA DE 105 MPH...165 KM/HR...CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA ES AHORA UN HURACAN DE CATEGORIA DOS EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. EXISTE LA POSIBILIDAD DE QUE SE TORNE EN HURACAN PODEROSO DE CATEGORIA TRES ANTES DE LLEGAR A TIERRA. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 970 MILIBARAS...28.64 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 12 A 17 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA LLUVIA TORRENCIAL CON CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL ESTE DE HONDURAS Y NICARAGUA. CANTIDADES ADICIONALES DE 3 A 6 PULGADAS SE PRONOSTICAN PARA SAN ANDRES Y PROVIDENCIA DONDE CANTIDADES AISLADAS PODRIAN ACERCARSE A 25 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 11 PM EDT...13.7 NORTE... 82.8 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...105 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...970 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 2 AM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTPQ20 RJTD 300300 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME TY 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) UPGRADED FROM STS ANALYSIS PSTN 300300UTC 14.0N 112.7E FAIR MOVE NNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 50KT 40NM 30KT 150NM FORECAST 24HF 310300UTC 14.7N 111.9E 80NM 70% MOVE ALMOST STATIONARY PRES 965HPA MXWD 070KT 45HF 010000UTC 15.8N 110.6E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 020000UTC 17.1N 108.7E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 300300 *** WARNING 300300. WARNING VALID 310300. TYPHOON WARNING. TYPHOON 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) UPGRADED FROM SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 970 HPA AT 14.0N 112.7E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHNORTHWEST SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 50 KNOT WINDS 40 MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 150 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 310300UTC AT 14.7N 111.9E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 965 HPA, MAX WINDS 70 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 300445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS. AT 300300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 300445 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) HAS INTENSIFIED INTO A TYPHOON WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 965 HECTOPASCALS. AT 300300 UTC, IT WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (13.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 63 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 310300 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (111.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 010300 UTC ONE FIVE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (15.0 N) ONE ZERO EIGHT POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (108.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 020300 UTC ONE SEVEN POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (17.1 N) ONE ZERO SIX POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (106.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 55 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 300556 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1 AM EST SUN OCT 30 2005 ...HURRICANE BETA CLOSE TO CATEGORY THREE STRENGTH AS THE EYE NEARS THE COAST OF NICARAGUA... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD ALREADY HAVE BEEN RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 1 AM EST...0600Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 83.2 WEST OR ABOUT 120 MILES...190 KM...SOUTH OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 55 MILES...85 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF BETA IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL ON THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE HURRICANE ARE ALREADY IMPACTING MANY PORTIONS OF EASTERN NICARAGUA. SATELLITE DATA SUGGEST THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 110 MPH...175 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER... AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 965 MB...28.50 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 12 TO 17 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN HONDURAS AND NICARAGUA. ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR SAN ANDRES AND PROVIDENCIA WHERE ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS COULD APPROACH 25 INCHES. REPEATING THE 1 AM EST POSITION...13.3 N... 83.2 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST-SOUTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 965 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 4 AM EST. FORECASTER KNABB $$