** WTCA31 MHTG 291630Z *** MHTG SIGMET 4 VALID 291630Z/292230Z MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC BETA LAT 13.9 N LOG 81.7 W FRQ TS TPS FL500 CENTRE MVNG NW 3 MPH INTS.F FCST 300000Z TC 14.0N 82.0W ** WTSS20 VHHH 291645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 291645 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291500 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT EIGHT DEGREES NORTH (12.8 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (112.6 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 90 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301500 UTC ONE THREE POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (13.0 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT NINE DEGREES EAST (111.9 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311500 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ZERO DEGREES NORTH (14.0 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT FOUR DEGREES EAST (110.4 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011500 UTC ONE FIVE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (15.6 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT SIX DEGREES EAST (107.6 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTJP21 RJTD 291800 *** WARNING 291800. WARNING VALID 301800. WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 985 HPA AT 13.2N 112.9E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTH SLOWLY. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 301800UTC AT 13.8N 111.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. FORECAST POSITION FOR 311800UTC AT 14.6N 110.1E WITH 150 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. FORECAST POSITION FOR 011800UTC AT 15.7N 108.1E WITH 220 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 980 HPA, MAX WINDS 55 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 291800 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 291800UTC 13.2N 112.9E FAIR MOVE N SLOWLY PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 301800UTC 13.8N 111.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 48HF 311800UTC 14.6N 110.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 72HF 011800UTC 15.7N 108.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTPQ20 BABJ 291800 *** SUBJECTIVE FORECAST STS KAI-TAK 0521 (0521) INITIAL TIME 291800 UTC 00HR 13.3N 113.0E 985HPA 25M/S 30KTS 250KM P12HR WNW 10KM/H P+24HR 13.8N 111.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+48HR 14.6N 109.2E 980HPA 30M/S P+72HR 15.8N 107.0E 1000HPA 15M/S= ** WTNT31 KNHC 292031 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 ...BETA MOVING SLOWLY WESTWARD TOWARD THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST OR ABOUT 100 MILES... 165 KM...SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 75 MILES... 120 KM...EAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH... 7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA. BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE...AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM. THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM RECENT REPORTS REPORTED OF AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETA MOVES AWAY. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 5 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 82.3 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 8 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT71 KNHC 292031 *** SPFAT1 HURRICANE BETA PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS AT 5 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.3 WEST CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE HURRICANE PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 2PM EDT TUE NOV 1 2005 LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E 14.0N 84.1W 50 X X X 50 MHNJ 165N 859W X 9 5 4 18 14.0N 85.3W 28 2 X X 30 MNPC 141N 834W 74 X X X 74 14.2N 86.4W 9 14 1 1 25 MNBL 120N 839W 11 1 1 2 15 MWCG 193N 814W X X X 2 2 SKSP 126N 817W 24 X X X 24 MUAN 219N 850W X X X 2 2 MRLM 100N 831W X X X 3 3 MMCZ 205N 869W X X X 5 5 MMFR 185N 926W X X X 6 6 MZBZ 175N 883W X X 6 8 14 MMMD 210N 897W X X X 4 4 MGPB 157N 886W X 3 10 5 18 COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM SUN FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES B FROM 2PM SUN TO 2AM MON C FROM 2AM MON TO 2PM MON D FROM 2PM MON TO 2PM TUE E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 2PM TUE X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT21 KNHC 292032 *** TCMAT1 HURRICANE BETA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL262005 2100Z SAT OCT 29 2005 A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS...AND FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 82.3W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB EYE DIAMETER 10 NM MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 95 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT....... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 85NE 85SE 85SW 85NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 82.3W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.8N 82.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 13.9N 83.0W MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 14.0N 84.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. 64 KT... 15NE 15SE 15SW 15NW. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT... 75NE 75SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 14.0N 85.3W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 14.2N 86.4W...INLAND DISSIPATING MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 14.5N 88.0W...INLAND REMNANT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.8N 82.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z FORECASTER BEVEN $$ ** WTNT41 KNHC 292033 *** TCDAT1 HURRICANE BETA DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING BETA HAVE FOUND MAXIMUM 700-MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 77 KT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE CENTRAL PRESSURE EXTRAPOLATED FROM THE AIRCRAFT DROPSONDES IS 979 MB...AND A 10 N MI WIDE EYE IS PRESENT. THE EYE HAS BEEN INTERMITTENTLY SEEN IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION MOSTLY TO THE EAST OF THE EYE AT THIS TIME. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS 80 KT BASED ON A COMBINATION OF AIRCRAFT DATA AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES. BETA HAS SWUNG TO THE LEFT DURING THE PAST 6-12 HR AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 280/4. AS PRESSURES CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTH OF THE HURRICANE...IT SHOULD CONTINUE A SLOW WESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HR UNTIL DISSIPATION OVER LAND. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK BASED ON THE INITIAL POSTION AND MOTION. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN WANT TO TAKE BETA WEST OF SOUTH INTO THE PACIFIC. GIVEN THAT THESE MODELS HAVE BEEN TOO FAST TO TURN BETA WESTWARD...THE FORECAST TRACK WILL STAY TO THE NORTH OF THESE MODELS...BEING JUST NORTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS. ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY SOMEWHAT ASYMMETRIC...THE OVERALL SATELLITE APPEARANCE OF THE HURRICANE IS IMPROVING. WITH THE FAVORABLE OUTFLOW AND THE SMALL EYE...THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE OF A BURST OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION BEFORE LANDFALL. THE GFDL MAKES BETA A MAJOR HURRICANE IN 12-18 HR...AND IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT WINDS WILL REACH 95-105 KT BEFORE LANDFALL. BETA SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF HONDURAS IN 72-96 HR. REGARDLESS OF THE INTENSITY OF BETA AT LANDFALL...THIS TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BRING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL TO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA...PRIMARILY NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS...CAUSING CONSIDERABLE DAMAGE...AND LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. IN ADDITION...SOME OF THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH BETA MAY GET DRAWN INTO A DEVELOPING WINTER-TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FORECASTER BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 29/2100Z 13.8N 82.3W 80 KT 12HR VT 30/0600Z 13.9N 83.0W 90 KT 24HR VT 30/1800Z 14.0N 84.1W 80 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 31/0600Z 14.0N 85.3W 40 KT...INLAND 48HR VT 31/1800Z 14.2N 86.4W 25 KT...INLAND DISSIPATING 72HR VT 01/1800Z 14.5N 88.0W 20 KT...INLAND REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 292050 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12 NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 5 PM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...BETA MOVIENDOSE LENTAMENTE AL OESTE HACIA EL LA COSTA NORESTE DE NICARAGUA...SE EXPERA QUE SE INTENSIFIQUE... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE BLUEFIELDS HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...Y LAS ISLAS ADYACENTES. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS...Y PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PERMANECEN EN EFECTO PARA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA AL SUR DE BLUEFIELDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECRO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON AL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUYENDO LA CEIBA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 5 PM EDT...2100Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.3 OESTE COMO A 100 MILLAS...165 KM...AL SUROESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS Y COMO A 75 MILLAS...120 KM...AL ESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE CONTINUAR POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBERA LLEVAR AL CENTRO DE BETA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE NICARAGUA Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA EN NICARAGUA. SE ESPERA QUE BETA SE TORNE EN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS...Y HAY POSIBILIDAD QUE PODRIA TORNARSE EN UN HURACAN PODEROSO DE CATEGORIA TRES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA EXTRAPOLADA DE INFORMES RECIENTES DE UNA AVION CAZAHURACANES DE LA RESERVA DE LA FUERZA AEREA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS... 28.91 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 10 A 15 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA EN PROVIDENCIA DEBEN DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE HOY Y ESTA NOCHE A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA SE ALEJE. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA LLUVIA TORRENCIAL CON CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 25 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 5 PM EDT...13.8 NORTE... 82.3 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...975 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR BEVEN $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA ** WTSS20 VHHH 291945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 291945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 291945 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 291800 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE TWO POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (12.9 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 50 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 30 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 301800 UTC ONE THREE POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (13.1 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT SEVEN DEGREES EAST (111.7 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 311800 UTC ONE FOUR POINT ONE DEGREES NORTH (14.1 N) ONE ONE ZERO POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (110.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 60 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 011800 UTC ONE FIVE POINT NINE DEGREES NORTH (15.9 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (107.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTPN31 PGTW 292100 *** MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVPACMETOCCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUB/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL STORM 22W (KAI-TAK) WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE --- WARNING POSITION: 291800Z --- NEAR 13.3N 112.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 045 DEGREES AT 06 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 13.3N 112.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 300600Z --- 14.2N 113.4E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 301800Z --- 15.2N 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 310600Z --- 15.8N 112.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 300 DEG/ 06 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 311800Z --- 16.4N 111.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 011800Z --- 17.4N 108.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 105 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT OVER WATER 100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT OVER WATER VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 021800Z --- 18.2N 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 280 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 031800Z --- 18.7N 104.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- REMARKS: 292100Z POSITION NEAR 13.5N 113.0E. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (KAI-TAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 365 NM EAST- SOUTHEAST OF HUE, VIETNAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THIS DISTINCTLY POLEWARD MOTION OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS IS DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE WESTERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIDLATITUDE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA. THIS POLEWARD MOTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNTIL THE TROUGH CLEARS THE CHINESE COAST AND A RIDGE BUILDS OVER SOUTHERN CHINA. AS THE RIDGE BUILDS IN FROM THE EAST, THE SYSTEM WILL SUBSEQUENTLY TURN BACK TO THE WEST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 291800Z IS 16 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 300300Z, 300900Z, 301500Z AND 302100Z.// ** WTCA31 MHTG 292125Z *** MHTG SIGMET5 VALID 292100/300300 MHTG- FIR CENTROAMERICA TC BETA OBS 2100Z LAT 13.9N LOG 82.3W FRQ TS CB TPS FL500. CENTRE MOV W AT 3 KNOTS INTSF. FCST 300300Z TC CENTRE LAT 13.9N LOG 83.0= ** WTPQ20 RJTD 292100 *** RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NAME STS 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) ANALYSIS PSTN 292100UTC 13.5N 113.0E FAIR MOVE NE 08KT PRES 985HPA MXWD 050KT 30KT 140NM FORECAST 24HF 302100UTC 14.1N 111.5E 80NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 45HF 311800UTC 14.6N 110.1E 150NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 970HPA MXWD 065KT 69HF 011800UTC 15.7N 108.1E 220NM 70% MOVE WNW SLOWLY PRES 980HPA MXWD 055KT = ** WTJP31 RJTD 292100 *** WARNING 292100. WARNING VALID 302100. TYPHOON WARNING. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM 0521 KAI-TAK (0521) 985 HPA AT 13.5N 113.0E SOUTH CHINA SEA MOVING NORTHEAST 08 KNOTS. POSITION FAIR. MAX WINDS 50 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. RADIUS OF OVER 30 KNOT WINDS 140 MILES. FORECAST POSITION FOR 302100UTC AT 14.1N 111.5E WITH 80 MILE RADIUS OF 70 PERCENT PROBABILITY CIRCLE. 970 HPA, MAX WINDS 65 KNOTS NEAR CENTER. JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.= ** WTSS20 VHHH 292245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 292100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTSS20 VHHH 292245 *** TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING AT 292100 UTC, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM KAI-TAK (0521) WITH CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 HECTOPASCALS WAS CENTRED WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES OF ONE THREE POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (13.2 N) ONE ONE TWO POINT FIVE DEGREES EAST (112.5 E) AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST SLOWLY FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 55 KNOTS. RADIUS OF OVER 33 KNOT WINDS 120 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 47 KNOT WINDS 60 NAUTICAL MILES. RADIUS OF OVER 2 METRE WAVES 180 NAUTICAL MILES. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 302100 UTC ONE THREE POINT SIX DEGREES NORTH (13.6 N) ONE ONE ONE POINT TWO DEGREES EAST (111.2 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 312100 UTC ONE FOUR POINT FIVE DEGREES NORTH (14.5 N) ONE ZERO NINE POINT ONE DEGREES EAST (109.1 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 65 KNOTS. FORECAST POSITION AND INTENSITY AT 012100 UTC ONE SIX POINT TWO DEGREES NORTH (16.2 N) ONE ZERO SEVEN POINT ZERO DEGREES EAST (107.0 E) MAXIMUM WINDS 50 KNOTS. ** WTNT31 KNHC 292345 *** TCPAT1 BULLETIN HURRICANE BETA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SAT OCT 29 2005 ...CORE OF BETA GRADUALLY NEARING THE EAST COAST OF NICARAGUA... WEATHER EXPECTED TO WORSEN... A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA FROM BLUEFIELDS NORTHWARD TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS NEAR THE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS BORDER...AND ADJACENT ISLANDS. A HURRICANE WARNING ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM PUNTA PATUCA TO CABO GRACIAS A DIOS. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF COLOMBIA DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE ISLAND OF PROVIDENCIA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF NICARAGUA SOUTH OF BLUEFIELDS TO THE BORDER WITH COSTA RICA. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON EASTWARD TO WEST OF PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUDING LA CEIBA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. AT 8 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE BETA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.6 WEST OR ABOUT 90 MILES... 155 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF CABO GRACIAS A DIOS ON THE NICARAGUA/ HONDURAS BORDER AND ABOUT 55 MILES... 90 KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 5 MPH...7 KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CORE OF HURRICANE BETA NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA AND THE NEARBY ISLANDS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 90 MPH...150 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. BETA IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE LANDFALL IN NICARAGUA. BETA IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE... AND THERE IS A CHANCE IT COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE MAJOR HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 15 MILES... 30 KM... FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES... 95 KM. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 979 MB...28.91 INCHES. STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 10 TO 15 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE EASTERN COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF WHERE THE CENTER MAKES LANDFALL. STORM SURGE FLOODING ON PROVIDENCIA SHOULD GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AS THE CENTER OF BETA MOVES AWAY. HURRICANE BETA IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL WITH TOTALS OF 10 TO 15 INCHES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN HONDURAS...NICARAGUA ...SAN ANDRES...AND PROVIDENCIA...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. REPEATING THE 8 PM EDT POSITION...13.8 N... 82.6 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD...WEST NEAR 5 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 90 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 979 MB. THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT 11 PM EDT. FORECASTER AVILA $$ ** WTCA41 TJSJ 292359 *** TCPSP1 BOLETIN HURACAN BETA ADVERTENCIA INTERMEDIA NUMERO 12A NWS TCP/CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES MIAMI FL 8 PM EDT SABADO 29 DE OCTUBRE DE 2005 ...EL CENTRO DE BETA GRADUALMENTE ACERCANDOSE A LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA...SE ESPERA QUE LAS CONDICIONES DEL TIEMPO EMPEOREN... PERMANECE EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE BLUEFIELDS HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS CERCA DE LA FRONTERA NICARAGUA/HONDURAS...Y LAS ISLAS ADYACENTES. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. ESTA TAMBIEN EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE PUNTA PATUCA HASTA CABO GRACIAS A DIOS...Y PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL GOBIERNO DE COLOMBIA DESCONTINUO EL AVISO DE HURACAN PARA LA ISLA DE PROVIDENCIA. CONTINUA EN EFECTO UN AVISO DE TORMENTA TROPICAL Y UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN PARA LA COSTA CARIBENA DE NICARAGUA AL SUR DE BLUEFIELDS HASTA LA FRONTERA CON COSTA RICA. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL PERMANECE EN EFECRO PARA LA COSTA NORESTE DE HONDURAS DESDE LIMON AL ESTE HASTA EL OESTE DE PUNTA PATUCA...INCLUYENDO LA CEIBA. UN AVISO DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SE ESPERAN CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. LOS PREPARATTIVOS PARA PROTEGER VIDA Y PROPIEDAD EN EL AREA BAJO AVISO DEBEN COMPLETARSE A LA MAYOR BREVEDAD. UNA VIGILANCIA DE HURACAN SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES HURACANADAS EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA...GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. UNA VIGILANCIA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SIGNIFICA QUE SON POSIBLES CONDICIONES DE TORMENTA TROPICAL EN EL AREA BAJO VIGILANCIA... GENERALMENTE DURANTE LAS PROXIMAS 36 HORAS. PARA INFORMACION ESPECIFICA PARA SU AREA...INCLUYENDO POSIBLES VIGILANCIAS Y AVISOS PARA AREAS TERRESTRES...FAVOR DE REFERIRSE A LOS PRODUCTOS EMITIDOS POR SU OFICINA METEOROLOGICA LOCAL. A LAS 8 PM EDT...0000Z...EL CENTRO DEL HURACAN BETA ESTABA LOCALIZADO CERCA DE LA LATITUD 13.8 NORTE...LONGITUD 82.6 OESTE COMO A 90 MILLAS...155 KM...AL SUR-SURESTE DE CABO GRACIAS A DIOS EN LA FRONTERA DE NICARAGUA/HONDURAS Y COMO A 55 MILLAS...90 KM...AL ESTE-SURESTE DE PUERTO CABEZAS NICARAGUA. BETA SE ESTA MOVIENDO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH...7 KILOMETROS POR HORA. ESTE MOVIMIENTO GENERAL DEBE CONTINUAR POR LAS PROXIMAS 24 HORAS. ESTE MOVIMIENTO DEBERA LLEVAR AL CENTRO DE BETA CERCA DE LA COSTA NORESTE DE NICARAGUA Y LAS ISLAS VECINAS TARDE ESTA NOCHE O TEMPRANO EL DOMINGO. LOS VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS ESTAN CERCA DE 90 MPH...150 KM/HR... CON RAFAGAS MAS FUERTES. BETA ES UN HURACAN CATEGORIA UNO EN LA ESCALA SAFFIR-SIMPSON. SE PRONOSTICA FORTALECIMIENTO ANTES DE TOCAR TIERRA EN NICARAGUA. SE ESPERA QUE BETA SE TORNE EN HURACAN CATEGORIA DOS...Y HAY POSIBILIDAD QUE PODRIA TORNARSE EN UN HURACAN PODEROSO DE CATEGORIA TRES. LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE HURACAN SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 15 MILLAS...30 KM...DEL CENTRO...Y LOS VIENTOS CON FUERZA DE TORMENTA TROPICAL SE EXTIENDEN HACIA AFUERA HASTA 60 MILLAS...95 KILOMETROS. LA PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA ESTIMADA ES DE 979 MILIBARAS...28.91 PULGADAS. ES POSIBLE QUE OCURRAN INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA DE 10 A 15 PIES A LO LARGO DE LA COSTA ESTE DE NICARAGUA CERCA Y AL NORTE DE DONDE EL CENTRO TOQUE TIERRA. INUNDACIONES POR MAREJADA CICLONICA EN PROVIDENCIA DEBEN DISMINUIR GRADUALMENTE ESTA NOCHE A MEDIDA QUE EL CENTRO DE BETA SE ALEJE. SE ESPERA QUE EL HURACAN BETA PRODUZCA LLUVIA TORRENCIAL CON CANTIDADES TOTALES DE LLUVIA DE 10 A 15 PULGADAS A TRAVES DEL NORESTE DE HONDURAS...NICARAGUA...SAN ANDRES...Y PROVIDENCIA CON POSIBLES CANTIDADES AISLADAS MAXIMAS DE HASTA 25 PULGADAS. REPITIENDO LA POSICION A LAS 8 PM EDT...13.8 NORTE... 82.6 OESTE. MOVIMIENTO HACIA EL OESTE A CERCA DE 5 MPH. VIENTOS MAXIMOS SOSTENIDOS...90 MPH. PRESION CENTRAL MINIMA...979 MB. LA PROXIMA ADVERTENCIA SERA EMITIDA POR EL CENTRO NACIONAL DE HURACANES A LAS 11 PM EDT. PRONOSTICADOR AVILA $$ TRADUCCION CORTESIA DE LA OFICINA EN SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO DEL SERVICIO NACIONAL DE METEOROLOGIA